Permanent Shocks And Spillovers
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Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers
| Author | : Mr.Alexei Kireyev |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 43 |
| Release | : 2015-07-07 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513542923 |
This paper proposes a method for assessing international spillovers from nominal demand shocks. It quantifies the impact of a shock in one country on all other countries. The paper concludes that the network effects in shock spillovers can be substantial, comparable, and often exceed the initial shock. Individual countries may amplify, absorb, or block spillovers. Most developed countries pass-through shocks, whereas low-income countries and oil exporters tend to block shock spillovers. The method is used to study demand shocks originating from a large and medium country, China and Ukraine respectively.
Big Players Out of Synch
| Author | : Carolina Osorio Buitron |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 35 |
| Release | : 2015-09-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513596705 |
Given the prospects of asynchronous monetary conditions in the United States and the euro area, this paper analyzes spillovers among these two economies, as well as the implications of asynchronicity for spillovers to other advanced economies and emerging markets. Through a structural vector autoregression analysis, country-specific shocks to economic activity and monetary conditions since the early 1990s are identified, and are used to draw implications about spillovers. The empirical findings suggest that real and monetary conditions in the United States and the euro area have oftentimes been asynchronous. The results also point to significant spillovers among them, in particular since early 2014—with spillovers from the euro area to the United States being particularly large. Against the backdrop of asynchronous conditions in these two economies, spillovers from real and money shocks to emerging markets and non-systemic advanced economies could be dampened.
Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers
| Author | : Alexei Kireyev |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2015 |
| Genre | : Monetary policy |
| ISBN | : 9781513511405 |
This paper proposes a method for assessing international spillovers from nominal demand shocks. It quantifies the impact of a shock in one country on all other countries. The paper concludes that the network effects in shock spillovers can be substantial, comparable, and often exceed the initial shock. Individual countries may amplify, absorb, or block spillovers. Most developed countries pass-through shocks, whereas low-income countries and oil exporters tend to block shock spillovers. The method is used to study demand shocks originating from a large and medium country, China and Ukraine res
Estimating General Equilibrium Spillovers of Large-Scale Shocks
| Author | : Kilian Huber |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2022 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Large-scale financial and macroeconomic shocks directly affect some firms and households and indirectly impact others through general equilibrium spillovers. In this paper, I describe how researchers can estimate spillovers directly using quasi-experimental or experimental variation. I then argue that spillover estimates suffer from distinct sources of mechanical bias that standard empirical tools cannot resolve. These biases are particularly relevant in finance and macroeconomics where multiple spillover channels and nonlinear effects are common. I offer guidance on how to detect and overcome mechanical biases. An application to a credit shock and additional examples highlight the broad relevance of the suggested methods.
International Spillovers of Macroeconomic Shocks A Quantitative Exploration
| Author | : Douglas Laxton |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 16 |
| Release | : 2006 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper provides a quantitative exploration of international spillovers of macroeconomic shocks among the major industrial economies. The particular topical example analyzed here concerns the possible effects on the industrial economies of adverse shocks to the current U.S. economic expansion. The potential spillover effects of U.S. shocks to other industrial economies are found to be quite large. Extant economic conditions, particularly the low levels of nominal interest rates and the consequent possibility of liquidity traps in countries such as Japan, could significantly magnify these spillover effects.
Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19
| Author | : Mr. Sonali Das |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 26 |
| Release | : 2021-07-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513587390 |
This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers from shocks to other sectors affect sectoral activity, for a large sample of countries from 1995 to 2014. We find that both supply and demand shocks—measured as changes in, respectively, productivity and government purchases at the sector level—have large spillover effects on sector-level gross value added and on a sector’s share of the economy. We then use these historical estimates, together with the network structure of global production, to quantify the spillovers from the economic shock associated with the pandemic. We find spillover effects to be sizeable, making up a significant fraction of the overall decline in activity in 2020.Our results have implications for the design of policies with a sectoral dimension.
Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations
| Author | : Mr.Pau Rabanal |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 68 |
| Release | : 2004-12-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451875657 |
Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Economic Spillovers, Structural Reforms and Policy Coordination in the Euro Area
| Author | : Bas van Aarle |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 241 |
| Release | : 2007-10-31 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3790819700 |
This book analyzes economic interdependence in the Euro Area. It offers expert estimates of the sign and size of economic spillovers. Moreover, the authors explore the impact of economic policy coordination on economic performance in the Euro Area. Among the many topics explored are the link between fiscal and monetary policies in the Euro Area and the coordination of fiscal policies and of structural reforms.
