Demographics, Pension Systems and the Saving-Investment Balance

Demographics, Pension Systems and the Saving-Investment Balance
Author: Hua Chai
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 21
Release: 2018-12-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 148438587X

This paper studies the effect of demographic change on national saving, global interest rates, and international capital flows, focusing on the role of the public pension system. We develop a small open economy overlapping generations model to illustrate the channels through which demographic variables and pension system generosity interact to affect both private and public saving behavior. We then extend this framework to a two-country setting and simulate scenarios of demographic change and pension reform. We find that the generosity of the pension system plays an important role in determining the movement of the global interest rate and patterns of international capital flows.

Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows

Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows
Author: Axel Börsch-Supan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 60
Release: 2005
Genre: Aging
ISBN:

In order to quantify these effects, we develop a computational general equilibrium model. We feed this multi-country overlapping generations model with detailed long-term demographic projections for seven world regions. Our simulations indicate that capital flows from fast-aging regions to the rest of the world will initially be substantial but that trends are reversed when households decumulate savings. We also conclude that closed-economy models of pension reform miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility.

Three Essays on Early Retirement, Demographic Structure, and International Capital Flow

Three Essays on Early Retirement, Demographic Structure, and International Capital Flow
Author: Xin Liang
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2019
Genre: Electronic dissertations
ISBN:

My dissertation consists of three chapters, which study the relationship between early retirement, demographic structure, and savings, international capital flows in developing countries, especially in China. The first chapter studies the role of early retirement and pension system as drivers of China's persistent high savings. The main findings are that the early retirement effect contributes to the majority of the growth and fluctuation in the saving rate while both early retirement effect and wealth substitution effect have a positive impact on the saving rate. The second chapter, accounting for the facts that the global current account balance must be equal to zero, re-examines the impact of demographic change on the current account balance. The main finding of this paper is that the young dependency ratio has a robust and significant negative impact on the current account but the old dependency ratio has an ambiguous and insignificant impact on the current account under the general equilibrium condition. The last chapter examines studies the role of early retirement and pension system reform as drivers of China's persistent high savings and current account surplus with the aid of an opened-economy model. The results show that, the dominant early retirement effect coupled with the wealth substitution effect can increase the household's savings. The current account surplus is due to the high savings and the domestic firms have financial borrowing friction to access domestic investment. The earlier and earlier actual retirement age finally results in the growing saving rates and current account surplus under the restriction of domestic investment.

Aging and International Capital Flows

Aging and International Capital Flows
Author: Axel Börsch-Supan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2001
Genre: Aging
ISBN:

Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing differs substantially, in particular between industrialized and less developed countries. To the extent that capital is internationally mobile, population aging will therefore induce capital flows between countries. In order to quantify these international capital flows, we employ a multi-country overlapping generations model and combine it with long-term demographic projections for several world regions over a 50 year horizon. Our simulations suggest that capital flows from fast-aging industrial countries (such as Germany and Italy) to the rest of the world will be substantial. Closed-economy models of pension reform are likely to miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility.

Advances in Retirement Investing

Advances in Retirement Investing
Author: Lionel Martellini
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 158
Release: 2020-09-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1108912141

To supplement replacement income provided by Social Security and employersponsored pension plans, individuals need to rely on their own saving and investment choices during accumulation. Once retired, they must also decide at which rate to spend their savings, with the usual dilemma between present and future consumption in mind. This Element explains how financial engineering and risk management techniques can help them in these complex decisions. First, it introduces 'retirement bonds', or retirement bond replicating portfolios, that provide stable and predictable replacement income during the decumulation period. Second, it describes investment strategies that combine the retirement bond with an efficient performanceseeking portfolio so as to reduce uncertainty over the future amount of income while offering upside potential. Finally, strategies using risk insurance techniques are proposed to secure minimum levels of replacement income while giving the possibility of reaching higher levels of income.

Ageing, Financial Markets and Monetary Policy

Ageing, Financial Markets and Monetary Policy
Author: Alan J. Auerbach
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 353
Release: 2013-11-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3662047799

The book gives an overview of the implications of population ageing on economic development and financial systems. It describes several challenges which the ageing process poses for central banks, giving special consideration to the situation in Europe. The first two chapters discuss the relationship between ageing and saving and between ageing and international capital flows. Other chapters consider the possible implications for financial markets. The final part raises issues which are of particular relevance for central banks, namely ageing and financial stability and how ageing will affect monetary policy.