Patterns Of Error Perceptual And Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis And Decision Making
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| Author | : Richards J Heuer |
| Publisher | : Pickle Partners Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 336 |
| Release | : 2020-03-05 |
| Genre | : History |
| ISBN | : 1839743050 |
In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.
| Author | : Geoffrey Ellis |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 185 |
| Release | : 2018-09-27 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 3319958313 |
This book brings together the latest research in this new and exciting area of visualization, looking at classifying and modelling cognitive biases, together with user studies which reveal their undesirable impact on human judgement, and demonstrating how visual analytic techniques can provide effective support for mitigating key biases. A comprehensive coverage of this very relevant topic is provided though this collection of extended papers from the successful DECISIVe workshop at IEEE VIS, together with an introduction to cognitive biases and an invited chapter from a leading expert in intelligence analysis. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations will be of interest to a wide audience from those studying cognitive biases to visualization designers and practitioners. It offers a choice of research frameworks, help with the design of user studies, and proposals for the effective measurement of biases. The impact of human visualization literacy, competence and human cognition on cognitive biases are also examined, as well as the notion of system-induced biases. The well referenced chapters provide an excellent starting point for gaining an awareness of the detrimental effect that some cognitive biases can have on users’ decision-making. Human behavior is complex and we are only just starting to unravel the processes involved and investigate ways in which the computer can assist, however the final section supports the prospect that visual analytics, in particular, can counter some of the more common cognitive errors, which have been proven to be so costly.
| Author | : Daniel Kahneman |
| Publisher | : Farrar, Straus and Giroux |
| Total Pages | : 511 |
| Release | : 2011-10-25 |
| Genre | : Psychology |
| ISBN | : 1429969350 |
*Major New York Times Bestseller *More than 2.6 million copies sold *One of The New York Times Book Review's ten best books of the year *Selected by The Wall Street Journal as one of the best nonfiction books of the year *Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient *Daniel Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's best-selling The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, world-famous psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Topping bestseller lists for almost ten years, Thinking, Fast and Slow is a contemporary classic, an essential book that has changed the lives of millions of readers.
| Author | : Robert Jervis |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 544 |
| Release | : 2017-05-02 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1400885116 |
Since its original publication in 1976, Perception and Misperception in International Politics has become a landmark book in its field, hailed by the New York Times as "the seminal statement of principles underlying political psychology." This new edition includes an extensive preface by the author reflecting on the book's lasting impact and legacy, particularly in the application of cognitive psychology to political decision making, and brings that analysis up to date by discussing the relevant psychological research over the past forty years. Jervis describes the process of perception (for example, how decision makers learn from history) and then explores common forms of misperception (such as overestimating one's influence). He then tests his ideas through a number of important events in international relations from nineteenth- and twentieth-century European history. Perception and Misperception in International Politics is essential for understanding international relations today.
| Author | : Kerm Henriksen |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 526 |
| Release | : 2005 |
| Genre | : Medical |
| ISBN | : |
v. 1. Research findings -- v. 2. Concepts and methodology -- v. 3. Implementation issues -- v. 4. Programs, tools and products.
| Author | : Timothy Walton |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 309 |
| Release | : 2010-08-30 |
| Genre | : History |
| ISBN | : 0521132657 |
In Challenges in Intelligence Analysis, first published in 2010, Timothy Walton offers concrete, reality-based ways to improve intelligence analysis.
| Author | : Daniel Kahneman |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 574 |
| Release | : 1982-04-30 |
| Genre | : Psychology |
| ISBN | : 9780521284141 |
Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.
| Author | : Martha Whitesmith |
| Publisher | : Edinburgh University Press |
| Total Pages | : 304 |
| Release | : 2020-09-21 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1474466362 |
This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).
| Author | : National Research Council |
| Publisher | : National Academies Press |
| Total Pages | : 352 |
| Release | : 2011-03-08 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 0309210925 |
The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.
| Author | : Randolph H. Pherson |
| Publisher | : CQ Press |
| Total Pages | : 246 |
| Release | : 2019-12-05 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1506368921 |
"Excellent publication for the study of intelligence analysis, structured analytical techniques and their application in this increasingly dangerous environment. A must read for anyone entering the intelligence community as an analyst, practitioner, stakeholder and leader." —Charles E. Wilson, University of Detroit Mercy The Third Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis showcases sixty-six structured analytic techniques—nine new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis. With more depth, detail, and utility than existing handbooks, each technique is clearly and systematically explained. Logically organized and richly illustrated, and with spiral binding and tabs that separate techniques into categories, this book is an easy-to-use, comprehensive reference.
