Parameter Instability, Expectations, Exogenous Fiscal Shocks, and the Relationship Between Taxes and Government Spending

Parameter Instability, Expectations, Exogenous Fiscal Shocks, and the Relationship Between Taxes and Government Spending
Author: Edgar M. Luna
Publisher:
Total Pages: 133
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

This dissertation focuses on the US government spending and taxes relationship. Chapter 2 considers the empirical relationship of taxes and spending using Granger causality test robust to parameter instability. The results show that revenues cause expenditures and expenditures cause revenues, as the fiscal synchronization suggests, only after taking into account parameter instability, using Rossi's (2005) test. Chapter 3 considers impulse response functions to see whether decreases in newly and already legislated taxes decrease government spending, as the "starve the beast" hypothesis suggests. Results show that these two shocks affect government spending in different ways. News about future tax cuts decrease government spending before these cuts are implemented, supporting the "starve the beast" hypothesis. Likewise, newly legislated tax cuts create a fiscal illusion, leading voters to demand higher government spending. Finally, Chapter 4 examines the behavior of the average tax rates following the present value of government war spending changes. Using impulse response functions, the point estimates suggest that a spending increase of 1% of GDP increases the average tax rate 0.2% on average, supporting the tax smoothing idea.

The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity

The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity
Author: Richard Hemming
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 62
Release: 2002-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.

Fiscal Policy and the Current Account

Fiscal Policy and the Current Account
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2010-05-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455200808

This paper examines the relationship between fiscal policy and the current account, drawing on a larger country sample than in previous studies and using panel regressions, vector autoregressions, and an analysis of large fiscal and external adjustments. On average, a strengthening in the fiscal balance by 1 percentage point of GDP is associated with a current account improvement of 0.2–0.3 percentage point of GDP. This association is as strong in emerging and low-income countries as it is in advanced economies; and significantly higher when output is above potential.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment

The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment
Author: Mr.Abdul Abiad
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2015-05-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484361555

This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.

How Loose, How Tight? A Measure of Monetary and Fiscal Stance for the Euro Area

How Loose, How Tight? A Measure of Monetary and Fiscal Stance for the Euro Area
Author: Nicoletta Batini
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 75
Release: 2020-06-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513546082

This paper builds a model-based dynamic monetary and fiscal conditions index (DMFCI) and uses it to examine the evolution of the joint stance of monetary and fiscal policies in the euro area (EA) and in its three largest member countries over the period 2007-2018. The index is based on the relative impacts of monetary and fiscal policy on demand using actual and simulated data from rich estimated models featuring also financial intermediaries and long-term government debt. The analysis highlights a short-lived fiscal expansion in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, followed by a quick tightening, with monetary policy left to be the “only game in town” after 2013. Individual countries’ DMFCIs show that national policy stances did not always mirror the evolution of the aggregate stance at the EA level, due to heterogeneity in the fiscal stance.

Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth

Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth
Author: Guillermo E. Perry
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 354
Release: 2007-10-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0821370855

Fiscal policy in Latin America has been guided primarily by short-term liquidity targets whose observance was taken as the main exponent of fiscal prudence, with attention focused almost exclusively on the levels of public debt and the cash deficit. Very little attention was paid to the effects of fiscal policy on growth and on macroeconomic volatility over the cycle. Important issues such as the composition of public expenditures (and its effects on growth), the ability of fiscal policy to stabilize cyclical fluctuations, and the currency composition of public debt were largely neglected. As a result, fiscal policy has often amplified cyclical volatility and dampened growth. 'Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth' explores the conduct of fiscal policy in Latin America and its consequences for macroeconomic stability and long-term growth. In particular, the book highlights the procyclical and anti-investment biases embedded in the region's fiscal policies, explores their causes and macroeconomic consequences, and asesses their possible solutions.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005
Author: Kenneth S. Rogoff
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 479
Release: 2006-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262072726

The 20th NBER Macroeconomics Annual, covering questions at the cutting edge of macroeconomics that are central to current policy debates.

Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth

Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 257
Release: 2015-04-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498344658

This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.

Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Hysteresis and Business Cycles
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2020-05-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513536990

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Taxation, Government Spending and Economic Growth

Taxation, Government Spending and Economic Growth
Author: Philip Booth
Publisher: London Publishing Partnership
Total Pages: 256
Release: 2016-11-01
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 025536735X

Amidst the debates about ‘austerity’ a number of vital debates in public finance have been sidelined. Because the reductions in government spending – small though they have been so far- have been designed to reduce the government’s borrowing requirement, there has been little discussion of whether the size of the state should be reduced in order to facilitate long-run reductions in the burden of taxation. This book traces the history of the growth of the size of the state over the last 100 years whilst also making international comparisons. There is a particular focus on recent and projected future developments which shows that, though the total level of government spending has not decreased significantly in recent years, there has been a big redirection of spending from some areas to others. The authors then examine the evidence on the relationship between taxation and economic growth. As well as reviewing recent literature, they also undertake new modelling that higher taxes are detrimental for growth. In the final part of the book, the whole UK tax system is reconsidered in a proper economic framework. The UK has one of the world’s most complex tax systems and its incoherence has increased over the last five years. Sweeping reforms are proposed to the system which wold involve abolishing around 20 taxes and the development of a simple, predictable tax system based on principles that should gain wide acceptance.