Do Financial Analysts' Long-Term Growth Forecasts Matter? Evidence from Stock Recommendations and Career Outcomes

Do Financial Analysts' Long-Term Growth Forecasts Matter? Evidence from Stock Recommendations and Career Outcomes
Author: Boochun Jung
Publisher:
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

Prior literature refers to economic incentives to generate investment banking business and trading commissions as explanations for analyst publication of forecasts of firms' long-term earnings growth (LTG). Prior research also documents wildly optimistic LTG forecasts and a negative relation between LTG forecasts and subsequent excess returns. Thus, the literature portrays analysts' LTG forecasts as nonsensical from a valuation perspective. We introduce and investigate a new perspective on the value-relevance of analyst publication of LTG forecasts. We hypothesize that analysts issuing LTG forecasts signal relatively high effort and ability in developing perspective of the subject firms' long-term prospects. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that the stock market responds more strongly to the stock recommendation revisions of analysts who publish accompanying LTG forecasts. In addition, we hypothesize and find that analysts issuing LTG forecasts are less likely to leave the profession or move to smaller brokerage houses. Consistent with Reg. FD's intention to restrict analyst access to insider information and promote fundamental analysis of the valuation implications of firms' long-term prospects, we find that post-Reg. FD observations drive most of our results. Overall, we identify previously undocumented benefits accruing to analysts who publish LTG forecasts.

Market Response to Revisions in Analysts' Future Years' Earnings Forecasts

Market Response to Revisions in Analysts' Future Years' Earnings Forecasts
Author: Gregory Alan Sommers
Publisher:
Total Pages: 194
Release: 2002
Genre:
ISBN:

Abstract: Questions have been raised in the business press and prior academic research about future years' earnings forecast credibility, particularly long-term growth. This paper documents the market response to revisions in analysts' earnings forecasts for the next year and long-term growth (collectively "future years' earnings"). First, I show there is information content in future years' earnings forecast revisions as evidenced by changes in return volatility and volume at their release. Second, there is a direct market response to the magnitudes of the revisions in the next years' earnings forecasts and to upward revisions in long-term growth forecasts as evidenced by the coefficient relating the unexpected returns to the unexpected portion of the revisions. Finally, I find that investors use the next year earnings forecasts interpret the expected persistence of current year earnings forecast revisions. This is evidenced by increases (decreases) in the coefficient relating unexpected returns to the current year earnings forecast revisions when the next year earnings forecast revision is in the same (opposite) direction. This study documents market response to future years' earnings forecast revisions and indicates that they affect how investors respond to the revisions in current year earnings forecasts.

The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies

The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies
Author: Leonard Zacks
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 352
Release: 2011-08-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118127765

Investment pioneer Len Zacks presents the latest academic research on how to beat the market using equity anomalies The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies organizes and summarizes research carried out by hundreds of finance and accounting professors over the last twenty years to identify and measure equity market inefficiencies and provides self-directed individual investors with a framework for incorporating the results of this research into their own investment processes. Edited by Len Zacks, CEO of Zacks Investment Research, and written by leading professors who have performed groundbreaking research on specific anomalies, this book succinctly summarizes the most important anomalies that savvy investors have used for decades to beat the market. Some of the anomalies addressed include the accrual anomaly, net stock anomalies, fundamental anomalies, estimate revisions, changes in and levels of broker recommendations, earnings-per-share surprises, insider trading, price momentum and technical analysis, value and size anomalies, and several seasonal anomalies. This reliable resource also provides insights on how to best use the various anomalies in both market neutral and in long investor portfolios. A treasure trove of investment research and wisdom, the book will save you literally thousands of hours by distilling the essence of twenty years of academic research into eleven clear chapters and providing the framework and conviction to develop market-beating strategies. Strips the academic jargon from the research and highlights the actual returns generated by the anomalies, and documented in the academic literature Provides a theoretical framework within which to understand the concepts of risk adjusted returns and market inefficiencies Anomalies are selected by Len Zacks, a pioneer in the field of investing As the founder of Zacks Investment Research, Len Zacks pioneered the concept of the earnings-per-share surprise in 1982 and developed the Zacks Rank, one of the first anomaly-based stock selection tools. Today, his firm manages U.S. equities for individual and institutional investors and provides investment software and investment data to all types of investors. Now, with his new book, he shows you what it takes to build a quant process to outperform an index based on academically documented market inefficiencies and anomalies.

Earnings Expectations in the COVID Crisis

Earnings Expectations in the COVID Crisis
Author: Augustin Landier
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

We analyze firm-level analyst forecasts during the COVID crisis. First, we describe expectations dynamics about future corporate earnings. Downward revisions have been sharp, mostly focused on 2020, 2021 and 2022, but much less drastic than the lower bound estimated by Gormsen and Koijen (2020). Analyst forecasts do not exhibit evidence of over-reaction: As of mid-May, forecasts over 2020 earnings have progressively been reduced by 16%. Longer-run forecasts, as well as expected "Long-Term Growth" have reacted much less than short-run forecasts, and feature less disagreement. Second, we ask how much discount rate changes explain market dynamics, in an exercise similar to Shiller (1981). Given forecast revisions and price movements, we estimate an implicit discount rate going from 10% in mid-February, to 13% at the end of March, back down to their initial level in mid-May. We then decompose discount rate changes into three factors: changes in unlevered asset risk premium (0%), increased leverage (+1%) and interest rate reduction (-1%). Overall, analyst forecast revisions explain all of the decrease in equity values between January 2020 and mid May 2020, but they do not explain shorter term movements.

Financial Gatekeepers

Financial Gatekeepers
Author: Yasuyuki Fuchita
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Total Pages: 216
Release: 2007-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0815729820

A Brookings Institution Press and Nomura Institute of Capital Markets Research publication Developed country capital markets have devised a set of institutions and actors to help provide investors with timely and accurate information they need to make informed investment decisions. These actors have become known as "financial gatekeepers" and include auditors, financial analysts, and credit rating agencies. Corporate financial reporting scandals in the United States and elsewhere in recent years, however, have called into question the sufficiency of the legal framework governing these gatekeepers. Policymakers have since responded by imposing a series of new obligations, restrictions, and punishments—all with the purpose of strengthening investor confidence in these important actors. Financial Gatekeepers provides an in-depth look at these new frameworks, especially in the United States and Japan. How have they worked? Are further refinements appropriate? These are among the questions addressed in this timely and important volume. Contributors include Leslie Boni (University of New Mexico), Barry Bosworth (Brookings Institution), Tomoo Inoue (Seikei University), Zoe-Vonna Palmrose (University of Southern California), Frank Partnoy (University of San Diego School of Law), George Perry (Brookings Institution), Justin Pettit (UBS), Paul Stevens (Investment Company Institute), Peter Wallison (American Enterprise Institute).

Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets

Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets
Author: Wing-Keung Wong
Publisher: Mdpi AG
Total Pages: 232
Release: 2022-02-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9783036530802

The Efficient Market Hypothesis believes that it is impossible for an investor to outperform the market because all available information is already built into stock prices. However, some anomalies could persist in stock markets while some other anomalies could appear, disappear and re-appear again without any warning. A Special Issue on "Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets" will be devoted to advancements in the theoretical development of market efficiency and anomaly in the Stock Market, as well as applications in Stock Market efficiency and anomalies.