Options Pricing and Hedging in a Regime-Switching Volatility Model

Options Pricing and Hedging in a Regime-Switching Volatility Model
Author: Melissa Anne Mielkie
Publisher:
Total Pages: 320
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

Both deterministic and stochastic volatility models have been used to price and hedge options. Observation of real market data suggests that volatility, while stochastic, is well modelled as alternating between two states. Under this two-state regime-switching framework, we derive coupled pricing partial differential equations (PDEs) with the inclusion of a state-dependent market price of volatility risk (MPVR) term. Since there is no closed-form solution for this pricing problem, we apply and compare two approaches to solving the coupled PDEs, assuming constant Poisson intensities. First we solve the problem using numerical solution techniques, through the application of the Crank- Nicolson numerical scheme. We also obtain approximate solutions in terms of known Black- Scholes formulae by reformulating our problem and applying the Cauchy-Kowalevski PDE theorem. Both our pricing equations and our approximate solutions give way to the analysis of the impact of our state-dependent MPVR on theoretical option prices. Using financially intuitive constraints on our option prices and Deltas, we prove the necessity of a negative MPVR. An exploration of the regime-switching option prices and their implied volatilities is given, as well as numerical results and intuition supporting our mathematical proofs. Given our regime-switching framework, there are several different hedging strategies to investigate. We consider using an option to hedge against a potential regime shift. Some practical problems arise with this approach, which lead us to set up portfolios containing a basket of two hedging options. To be more precise, we consider the effects of an option going too far in- and out-of-the-money on our hedging strategy, and introduce limits on the magnitude of such hedging option positions. A complementary approach, where constant volatility is assumed and investor's risk preferences are taken into account, is also analysed. Analysis of empirical data supports the hypothesis that volatility levels are a effected by upcoming financial events. Finally, we present an extension of our regime-switching framework with deterministic Poisson intensities. In particular, we investigate the impact of time and stock varying Poisson intensities on option prices and their corresponding implied volatilities, using numerical solution techniques. A discussion of some event-driven hedging strategies is given.

Option Pricing and Hedging Analysis Under Regime-switching Models

Option Pricing and Hedging Analysis Under Regime-switching Models
Author: Chao Qiu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 181
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

This thesis explores option pricing and hedging in a discrete time regime-switching environment. If the regime risk cannot be hedged away, then we cannot ignore this risk and use the Black-Scholes pricing and hedging framework to generate a unique pricing and hedging measure. We develop a risk neutral pricing measure by applying an Esscher Transform to the real world asset price process, with the focus on the issue of incompleteness of the market. The Esscher transform turns out to be a convenient and effective tool for option pricing under the discrete time regime switching models. We apply the pricing measure to both single variate European options and multivariate options. To better understand the effect of the pricing method, we also compared the results with those generated from two other risk neutral methods: the Black-Scholes model, and the natural equivalent martingale method. We further investigate the difference in hedging associated with different pricing measures. This is of interest when the choice of pricing method is uncertain under regime switching models. We compare four hedging strategies: delta hedging for the three risk neutral pricing methods under study, and mean variance hedging. We also develop a more general tool of tail ordering for hedging analysis in a general incomplete market with the uncertainty of the risk neutral measures. As a result of the analysis, we propose that pricing and hedging using the Esscher transform may be an effective strategy for a market where the regime switching process brings uncertainty.

Option Pricing and Hedging for Discrete Time Regime-Switching Models

Option Pricing and Hedging for Discrete Time Regime-Switching Models
Author: Bruno Remillard
Publisher:
Total Pages: 25
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

We propose optimal mean-variance dynamic hedging strategies in discrete time under a multivariate Gaussian regime-switching model. The methodology, which also performs pricing, is robust to time-varying and clustering risk observed in financial time series. As such, it overcomes the main theoretical drawbacks of the Black-Scholes model. To support our approach, we provide univariate pricing results for monthly S&P 500 vanilla options. Then, we present the associated out-of-sample hedging results in the context of harvesting the implied versus realized volatility premium. Using the proposed methodology, the Sharpe ratio derived from the strategy doubles over the classical Black-Scholes delta-hedging methodology.

Volatility Surface and Term Structure

Volatility Surface and Term Structure
Author: Kin Keung Lai
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 102
Release: 2013-09-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135006997

This book provides different financial models based on options to predict underlying asset price and design the risk hedging strategies. Authors of the book have made theoretical innovation to these models to enable the models to be applicable to real market. The book also introduces risk management and hedging strategies based on different criterions. These strategies provide practical guide for real option trading. This book studies the classical stochastic volatility and deterministic volatility models. For the former, the classical Heston model is integrated with volatility term structure. The correlation of Heston model is considered to be variable. For the latter, the local volatility model is improved from experience of financial practice. The improved local volatility surface is then used for price forecasting. VaR and CVaR are employed as standard criterions for risk management. The options trading strategies are also designed combining different types of options and they have been proven to be profitable in real market. This book is a combination of theory and practice. Users will find the applications of these financial models in real market to be effective and efficient.

Option Pricing and Hedging for Regime-Switching Geometric Brownian Motion Models

Option Pricing and Hedging for Regime-Switching Geometric Brownian Motion Models
Author: Bruno Remillard
Publisher:
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

We find the variance-optimal equivalent martingale measure when multivariate assets are modeled by a regime-switching geometric Brownian motion, and the regimes are represented by a homogeneous continuous time Markov chain. Under this new measure, the Markov chain driving the regimes is no longer homogeneous, which differs from the equivalent martingale measures usually proposed in the literature. We show the solution minimizes the mean-variance hedging error under the objective measure. As argued by Schweizer (1996), the variance-optimal equivalent measure naturally extends canonical option pricing results to the case of an incomplete market and the expectation under the proposed measure may be interpreted as an option price. Solutions for the option value and the optimal hedging strategy are easily obtained from Monte Carlo simulations. Two applications are considered.

Modeling and Pricing of Swaps for Financial and Energy Markets with Stochastic Volatilities

Modeling and Pricing of Swaps for Financial and Energy Markets with Stochastic Volatilities
Author: Anatoli? Vital?evich Svishchuk
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 326
Release: 2013
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9814440132

Modeling and Pricing of Swaps for Financial and Energy Markets with Stochastic Volatilities is devoted to the modeling and pricing of various kinds of swaps, such as those for variance, volatility, covariance, correlation, for financial and energy markets with different stochastic volatilities, which include CIR process, regime-switching, delayed, mean-reverting, multi-factor, fractional, Levy-based, semi-Markov and COGARCH(1,1). One of the main methods used in this book is change of time method. The book outlines how the change of time method works for different kinds of models and problems arising in financial and energy markets and the associated problems in modeling and pricing of a variety of swaps. The book also contains a study of a new model, the delayed Heston model, which improves the volatility surface fitting as compared with the classical Heston model. The author calculates variance and volatility swaps for this model and provides hedging techniques. The book considers content on the pricing of variance and volatility swaps and option pricing formula for mean-reverting models in energy markets. Some topics such as forward and futures in energy markets priced by multi-factor Levy models and generalization of Black-76 formula with Markov-modulated volatility are part of the book as well, and it includes many numerical examples such as S&P60 Canada Index, S&P500 Index and AECO Natural Gas Index.

Option Pricing with Unobserved and Regime-Switching Volatility

Option Pricing with Unobserved and Regime-Switching Volatility
Author: Sean D. Campbell
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 1999
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper we use a regime-switching process to model the unobserved volatility of the underlying asset and derive a closed-form, risk-neutral option pricing formula. Specifically, our model implies the state price density (SPD) is a time-varying mixture of normals which can provide for time-varying excess kurtosis and skewness as agents learn about the state of volatility from realized returns. Furthermore, we show that our model generates the kinds of volatility quot;smilesquot; commonly found in option markets. We apply our two and three regime models to weekly Samp;P 500 option data and find our model fits the data better than other popular pricing models. Additionally, we find evidence that stock returns can be well-described by a markov switching framework with a very persistent low volatility regime followed by a less persistent moderate volatility regime and a highly non-persistent crash regime. Our estimation results don't suffer the so called quot;Peso Problemquot; as they come from option prices instead of the observed stock returns.

Option Pricing Under Regime Switching (analytical, PDE, and FFT Methods)

Option Pricing Under Regime Switching (analytical, PDE, and FFT Methods)
Author: Mohammad Yousef Akhavein Sohrabi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 83
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

Although globally used in option pricing, the Black-Scholes model has not been able to reflect the evolution of stocks in the real world. A regime-switching model which allows jumps in the underlying asset prices and the parameters of the corresponding stochastic process is more accurate. We evaluate the analytical solution for pricing of European options under a two-state regime switching model. Both the convergence of the analytical solution and the feature of implied volatility are investigated through numerical examples.

Dynamic Hedging

Dynamic Hedging
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 536
Release: 1997-01-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780471152804

Destined to become a market classic, Dynamic Hedging is the only practical reference in exotic options hedgingand arbitrage for professional traders and money managers Watch the professionals. From central banks to brokerages to multinationals, institutional investors are flocking to a new generation of exotic and complex options contracts and derivatives. But the promise of ever larger profits also creates the potential for catastrophic trading losses. Now more than ever, the key to trading derivatives lies in implementing preventive risk management techniques that plan for and avoid these appalling downturns. Unlike other books that offer risk management for corporate treasurers, Dynamic Hedging targets the real-world needs of professional traders and money managers. Written by a leading options trader and derivatives risk advisor to global banks and exchanges, this book provides a practical, real-world methodology for monitoring and managing all the risks associated with portfolio management. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the founder of Empirica Capital LLC, a hedge fund operator, and a fellow at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University. He has held a variety of senior derivative trading positions in New York and London and worked as an independent floor trader in Chicago. Dr. Taleb was inducted in February 2001 in the Derivatives Strategy Hall of Fame. He received an MBA from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. from University Paris-Dauphine.