Optimal Use Of Forecasts In Economic Policy Decisions
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Author | : Peter J. N. Sinclair |
Publisher | : Routledge |
Total Pages | : 402 |
Release | : 2009-12-16 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1135179778 |
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author | : Andrew J. Hughes Hallett |
Publisher | : CUP Archive |
Total Pages | : 396 |
Release | : 1983-01-20 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780521237185 |
Author | : Richard W. Katz |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 244 |
Release | : 1997 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780521435710 |
Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate forecasts can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects to weather prediction. The contributors encompass forecasts over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these forecasts on human behaviour. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather forecasting systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential reference for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.
Author | : Graham Elliott |
Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
Total Pages | : 566 |
Release | : 2016-04-05 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0691140138 |
A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Author | : |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 7493 |
Release | : 2016-05-18 |
Genre | : Law |
ISBN | : 1349588024 |
The award-winning The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition is now available as a dynamic online resource. Consisting of over 1,900 articles written by leading figures in the field including Nobel prize winners, this is the definitive scholarly reference work for a new generation of economists. Regularly updated! This product is a subscription based product.
Author | : David F. Hendry |
Publisher | : MIT Press |
Total Pages | : 236 |
Release | : 2003 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780262582421 |
How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.
Author | : David Hendry |
Publisher | : Yale University Press |
Total Pages | : 228 |
Release | : 2019-06-11 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0300248245 |
Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive—this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
Author | : N. Carnot |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 516 |
Release | : 2011-07-26 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0230306446 |
Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.
Author | : Leif Johansen |
Publisher | : North Holland |
Total Pages | : 434 |
Release | : 1977 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Textbook comprising lectures on macro-economic planning both in planned economies and in other economic systems - covers methodologys and theories, the use of econometrics and mathematical models in economic planning, and includes centralization and decentralization of decision making powers, economic policy formulation during times of uncertainty, etc. Diagrams and references.
Author | : United States. Bureau of the Budget. Library |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 518 |
Release | : 1971 |
Genre | : Public administration |
ISBN | : |