Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Regime Switching Skew And Kurtosis Preferences
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| Author | : Allan Timmermann |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 34 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper proposes a new tractable approach to solving multi-period asset allocation problems. We assume that investor preferences are defined over moments of the terminal wealth distribution such as its skew and kurtosis. Time-variations in investment opportunities are driven by a regime switching process that can capture bull and bear states. We develop analytical methods that only require solving a small set of difference equations and thus are very convenient to use. These methods are applied to a simple portfolio selection problem involving choosing between a stock index and a risk-free asset in the presence of bull and bear states in the return distribution. If the market is in a bear state, investors increase allocations to stocks the longer their time horizon. Conversely, in bull markets it is optimal for investors to decrease allocations to stocks the longer their investment horizon.
| Author | : Xudong Zeng |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 150 |
| Release | : 2006 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Emmanuel Jurczenko |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 258 |
| Release | : 2006-10-02 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0470057998 |
While mainstream financial theories and applications assume that asset returns are normally distributed and individual preferences are quadratic, the overwhelming empirical evidence shows otherwise. Indeed, most of the asset returns exhibit “fat-tails” distributions and investors exhibit asymmetric preferences. These empirical findings lead to the development of a new area of research dedicated to the introduction of higher order moments in portfolio theory and asset pricing models. Multi-moment asset pricing is a revolutionary new way of modeling time series in finance which allows various degrees of long-term memory to be generated. It allows risk and prices of risk to vary through time enabling the accurate valuation of long-lived assets. This book presents the state-of-the art in multi-moment asset allocation and pricing models and provides many new developments in a single volume, collecting in a unified framework theoretical results and applications previously scattered throughout the financial literature. The topics covered in this comprehensive volume include: four-moment individual risk preferences, mathematics of the multi-moment efficient frontier, coherent asymmetric risks measures, hedge funds asset allocation under higher moments, time-varying specifications of (co)moments and multi-moment asset pricing models with homogeneous and heterogeneous agents. Written by leading academics, Multi-moment Asset Allocation and Pricing Models offers a unique opportunity to explore the latest findings in this new field of research.
| Author | : H. Kent Baker |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
| Total Pages | : 798 |
| Release | : 2013-01-07 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 019931151X |
Portfolio management is an ongoing process of constructing portfolios that balances an investor's objectives with the portfolio manager's expectations about the future. This dynamic process provides the payoff for investors. Portfolio management evaluates individual assets or investments by their contribution to the risk and return of an investor's portfolio rather than in isolation. This is called the portfolio perspective. Thus, by constructing a diversified portfolio, a portfolio manager can reduce risk for a given level of expected return, compared to investing in an individual asset or security. According to modern portfolio theory (MPT), investors who do not follow a portfolio perspective bear risk that is not rewarded with greater expected return. Portfolio diversification works best when financial markets are operating normally compared to periods of market turmoil such as the 2007-2008 financial crisis. During periods of turmoil, correlations tend to increase thus reducing the benefits of diversification. Portfolio management today emerges as a dynamic process, which continues to evolve at a rapid pace. The purpose of Portfolio Theory and Management is to take readers from the foundations of portfolio management with the contributions of financial pioneers up to the latest trends emerging within the context of special topics. The book includes discussions of portfolio theory and management both before and after the 2007-2008 financial crisis. This volume provides a critical reflection of what worked and what did not work viewed from the perspective of the recent financial crisis. Further, the book is not restricted to the U.S. market but takes a more global focus by highlighting cross-country differences and practices. This 30-chapter book consists of seven sections. These chapters are: (1) portfolio theory and asset pricing, (2) the investment policy statement and fiduciary duties, (3) asset allocation and portfolio construction, (4) risk management, (V) portfolio execution, monitoring, and rebalancing, (6) evaluating and reporting portfolio performance, and (7) special topics.
| Author | : Markus Haas |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 19 |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper extends the stochastic dominance rules for normal mixture distributions derived by Levy and Kaplanski (2015). First, the portfolios under consideration are allowed to follow different regime-switching processes. Second, the results are extended from second- to fourth-order stochastic dominance, which is known to be closely related to kurtosis aversion in financial markets and allows to compare mixture distributions with the same overall variance. In particular, when a risk-free asset is available, checking for fourth-order stochastic dominance turns out to amount to a comparison of the regime-specific and overall Sharpe ratios of the portfolios under consideration.
| Author | : Markus Konrad Brunnermeier |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 48 |
| Release | : 2007 |
| Genre | : Assets (Accounting) |
| ISBN | : |
Human beings want to believe that good outcomes in the future are more likely, but also want to make good decisions that increase average outcomes in the future. We consider a general equilibrium model with complete markets and show that when investors hold beliefs that optimally balance these two incentives, portfolio holdings and asset prices match six observed patterns: (i) because the cost of biased beliefs are typically second-order, investors typically hold biased assessments of probabilities and so are not perfectly diversified according to objective metrics; (ii) because the costs of biased beliefs temper these biases, the utility costs of the lack of diversification are limited; (iii) because there is a complementarity between believing a state more likely and purchasing more of the asset that pays off in that state, investors over-invest in only one Arrow-Debreu security and smooth their consumption well across the remaining states; (iv) because different households can settle on different states to be optimistic about, optimal portfolios of ex ante identical investors can be heterogeneous; (v) because low-price and low-probability states are the cheapest states to buy consumption in, overoptimism about these states distorts consumption the least in the rest of the states, so that investors tend to overinvest in the most skewed securities; (vi) finally, because investors with optimal expectations have higher demand for more skewed assets, ceteris paribus, more skewed asset can have lower average returns.
| Author | : Eric Jondeau |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 541 |
| Release | : 2007-04-05 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 1846286964 |
This book examines non-Gaussian distributions. It addresses the causes and consequences of non-normality and time dependency in both asset returns and option prices. The book is written for non-mathematicians who want to model financial market prices so the emphasis throughout is on practice. There are abundant empirical illustrations of the models and techniques described, many of which could be equally applied to other financial time series.
| Author | : Nicolas Chapados |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 107 |
| Release | : 2011-07-12 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 1461405777 |
This brief offers a broad, yet concise, coverage of portfolio choice, containing both application-oriented and academic results, along with abundant pointers to the literature for further study. It cuts through many strands of the subject, presenting not only the classical results from financial economics but also approaches originating from information theory, machine learning and operations research. This compact treatment of the topic will be valuable to students entering the field, as well as practitioners looking for a broad coverage of the topic.
| Author | : David M. Drukker |
| Publisher | : Emerald Group Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 262 |
| Release | : 2011-11-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1780525273 |
Part of the "Advances in Econometrics" series, this title contains chapters covering topics such as: Missing-Data Imputation in Nonstationary Panel Data Models; Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance; Bayesian Analysis of Multivariate Sample Selection Models Using Gaussian Copulas; and, Consistent Estimation and Orthogonality.
| Author | : Hening Liu |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 2011 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
I examine a continuous-time intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice problem under ambiguity, where expected returns of a risky asset follow a hidden Markov chain. Investors with Chen and Epstein''s (2002) recursive multiple priors utility possess a set of priors for unobservable investment opportunities. We explicitly characterize optimal consumption and portfolio policies in terms of the Malliavin derivatives and stochastic integrals. When the model is calibrated to U.S. stock market data, I find that continuous Bayesian revisions under incomplete information generate ambiguity-driven hedging demands that mitigate intertemporal hedging demands. In addition, ambiguity aversion magnifies the importance of hedging demands in the optimal portfolio policies. Out-of-sample experiments demonstrate the economic importance of accounting for ambiguity.
