Optimal Multi-Horizon Portfolios with Forward-Looking Expectations and Loss Aversion

Optimal Multi-Horizon Portfolios with Forward-Looking Expectations and Loss Aversion
Author: Khalid Alsweilem
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper presents a framework for portfolio optimization that makes three departures from the traditional mean-variance approach. First, we optimize the portfolio over multiple horizons, reflecting the belief that long-term investors care about intertemporal gains and losses, as well as cumulative performance, rather than simply long-run performance (expressed as a terminal value at the end of the optimization period). Second, rather than approximate through variance, which includes upside performance too, we account for loss aversion by simulating more severe shock events than those captured in historical samples, as well as through a specification of investor utility that sharply penalizes loses beyond a specified threshold. Finally, our framework allows investors to express forward-looking expectations (or make Bayesian adjustments) around how future performance may differ from those observed in the past. We demonstrate the value of the framework and how it could be implemented through a consideration of the problem faced by sovereign wealth funds with long-term investment horizons. While this implementation exercise is illustrative, we find that these adjustments - which more realistically capture the observed behavior of sovereign wealth funds as long-term investors than the traditional mean-variance heuristic - result in meaningful shifts in optimal portfolio weights.

Multi-Asset Investing

Multi-Asset Investing
Author: Pranay Gupta
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 296
Release: 2016-03-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1119241596

Despite the accepted fact that a substantial part of the risk and return of any portfolio comes from asset allocation, we find today that the majority of investment professionals worldwide are focused on security selection. Multi-Asset Investing: A Practitioner’s Framework questions this basic structure of the investment process and investment industry. Who says we have to separate alpha and beta? Are the traditional definitions for risk and risk premium relevant in a multi-asset class world? Do portfolios cater for the ‘real risks’ in their investment processes? Does the whole Emerging Markets demarcation make sense for investing? Why do active Asian managers perform much poorer compared to developed market managers? Can you distinguish how much of a strategy’s performance comes from skill rather than luck? Does having a performance fee for your manager create alignment or misalignment? Why is the asset management transitioning from multi-asset strategies to multi-asset solutions? These and many other questions are asked, and suggestions provided as potential solutions. Having worked together for fifteen years, the authors’ present implementable solutions which have helped them successfully manage large asset pools. The Academic Perspective “Multi-Asset Investing asks fundamental questions about the asset allocation investment processes in use today, and can have a substantial impact on the future structure of the finance industry. It clarifies and distils the techniques that investment professionals need to master to add value to client portfolios.” —Paul Smith, President & CEO, CFA Institute “Pranay Gupta, Sven Skallsjo, and Bing Li describe the essential concepts and applications of multi-asset investing. Their treatment is far ranging and exceptionally lucid, and always with a nod to practical application. Buy this book and keep it close at hand.” —Mark Kritzman, MIT Sloane School of Management “Innovative solutions to some of the most difficult investment problems we are faced with today. Multi-asset Investing tackles investment issues which don’t have straight forward solutions, but nevertheless are faced by every investment professional. This book sets the standard for investment processes of all asset managers.” —SP Kothari, MIT Sloane School of Management The Asset Owner Perspective “Multi-asset means different things to different people. This is the first text that details a comprehensive framework for managing any kind of multi-asset investment problem. Further, its explanation of the commercial aspects of managing a multi-asset investment business for an asset manager, private bank or asset owner make it an indispensable tool” —Sadayuki Horie, Dy. Chairman - Investment Advisory Comm., Government Pension Investment Fund, Japan “Multi-Asset Investing shows the substantial scope there is to innovate the asset allocation process. With its novel approaches to allocation, portfolio construction and risk management it demonstrates the substantial value that can be added to any portfolio. The solutions proposed by Multi-Asset Investing are creative, thought provoking, and may well be the way all portfolios need to be managed in the future.” —Mario Therrien, Senior Vice President, Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec, Canada The Asset Manager’s Perspective “Never has astute asset allocation and diversification been more crucial than today. Asset Managers which are able to innovate their investment processes and products in this area, are more likely to be the winners. Multi-Asset Investing provides both simple and sophisticated, tested and implementable techniques for successfully managing multi-asset portfolios.” —Vincent Camerlynck, former CEO BNP Paribas Investment Partners, Asia Pacific The Investment Strategist Perspective “For plan sponsors, portfolio managers, analysts and risk managers, Multi-Asset Investing is an unparalleled guide for portfolio management. Its approach to blending the quantitative and fundamental, top-down and bottom up and the risk and return frameworks makes it a valuable tool for any kind of investment professional. It clarifies a complex subject into a series of practical ideas to help add value to any portfolio.” —Ajay S. Kapur, Chief Strategist, BOA Merrill Lynch Asia

A Practitioner's Guide to Asset Allocation

A Practitioner's Guide to Asset Allocation
Author: William Kinlaw
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 271
Release: 2017-05-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 111940245X

Since the formalization of asset allocation in 1952 with the publication of Portfolio Selection by Harry Markowitz, there have been great strides made to enhance the application of this groundbreaking theory. However, progress has been uneven. It has been punctuated with instances of misleading research, which has contributed to the stubborn persistence of certain fallacies about asset allocation. A Practitioner's Guide to Asset Allocation fills a void in the literature by offering a hands-on resource that describes the many important innovations that address key challenges to asset allocation and dispels common fallacies about asset allocation. The authors cover the fundamentals of asset allocation, including a discussion of the attributes that qualify a group of securities as an asset class and a detailed description of the conventional application of mean-variance analysis to asset allocation.. The authors review a number of common fallacies about asset allocation and dispel these misconceptions with logic or hard evidence. The fallacies debunked include such notions as: asset allocation determines more than 90% of investment performance; time diversifies risk; optimization is hypersensitive to estimation error; factors provide greater diversification than assets and are more effective at reducing noise; and that equally weighted portfolios perform more reliably out of sample than optimized portfolios. A Practitioner's Guide to Asset Allocation also explores the innovations that address key challenges to asset allocation and presents an alternative optimization procedure to address the idea that some investors have complex preferences and returns may not be elliptically distributed. Among the challenges highlighted, the authors explain how to overcome inefficiencies that result from constraints by expanding the optimization objective function to incorporate absolute and relative goals simultaneously. The text also explores the challenge of currency risk, describes how to use shadow assets and liabilities to unify liquidity with expected return and risk, and shows how to evaluate alternative asset mixes by assessing exposure to loss throughout the investment horizon based on regime-dependent risk. This practical text contains an illustrative example of asset allocation which is used to demonstrate the impact of the innovations described throughout the book. In addition, the book includes supplemental material that summarizes the key takeaways and includes information on relevant statistical and theoretical concepts, as well as a comprehensive glossary of terms.

Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-horizon Portfolios

Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-horizon Portfolios
Author: Jakub W. Jurek
Publisher:
Total Pages: 92
Release: 2006
Genre: Hedging (Finance)
ISBN:

We develop an analytical solution to the dynamic portfolio choice problem of an investor with utility defined over wealth at a terminal horizon who faces an investment opportunity set with time-varying risk premia, real interest rates and inflation. The variation in investment opportunities is captured by a flexible vector autoregressive parameterization, which readily accommodates a large number of assets and state variables. We find that the optimal dynamic portfolio strategy is an affine function of the vector of state variables describing investment opportunities, with coefficients that are a function of the investment horizon. We apply our method to the optimal portfolio choice problem of an investor who can choose between value and growth stock portfolios, and among these equity portfolios plus bills and bonds.

Efficient Asset Management

Efficient Asset Management
Author: Richard O. Michaud
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 207
Release: 2008-03-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0199887195

In spite of theoretical benefits, Markowitz mean-variance (MV) optimized portfolios often fail to meet practical investment goals of marketability, usability, and performance, prompting many investors to seek simpler alternatives. Financial experts Richard and Robert Michaud demonstrate that the limitations of MV optimization are not the result of conceptual flaws in Markowitz theory but unrealistic representation of investment information. What is missing is a realistic treatment of estimation error in the optimization and rebalancing process. The text provides a non-technical review of classical Markowitz optimization and traditional objections. The authors demonstrate that in practice the single most important limitation of MV optimization is oversensitivity to estimation error. Portfolio optimization requires a modern statistical perspective. Efficient Asset Management, Second Edition uses Monte Carlo resampling to address information uncertainty and define Resampled Efficiency (RE) technology. RE optimized portfolios represent a new definition of portfolio optimality that is more investment intuitive, robust, and provably investment effective. RE rebalancing provides the first rigorous portfolio trading, monitoring, and asset importance rules, avoiding widespread ad hoc methods in current practice. The Second Edition resolves several open issues and misunderstandings that have emerged since the original edition. The new edition includes new proofs of effectiveness, substantial revisions of statistical estimation, extensive discussion of long-short optimization, and new tools for dealing with estimation error in applications and enhancing computational efficiency. RE optimization is shown to be a Bayesian-based generalization and enhancement of Markowitz's solution. RE technology corrects many current practices that may adversely impact the investment value of trillions of dollars under current asset management. RE optimization technology may also be useful in other financial optimizations and more generally in multivariate estimation contexts of information uncertainty with Bayesian linear constraints. Michaud and Michaud's new book includes numerous additional proposals to enhance investment value including Stein and Bayesian methods for improved input estimation, the use of portfolio priors, and an economic perspective for asset-liability optimization. Applications include investment policy, asset allocation, and equity portfolio optimization. A simple global asset allocation problem illustrates portfolio optimization techniques. A final chapter includes practical advice for avoiding simple portfolio design errors. With its important implications for investment practice, Efficient Asset Management 's highly intuitive yet rigorous approach to defining optimal portfolios will appeal to investment management executives, consultants, brokers, and anyone seeking to stay abreast of current investment technology. Through practical examples and illustrations, Michaud and Michaud update the practice of optimization for modern investment management.

Multi-Period Trading Via Convex Optimization

Multi-Period Trading Via Convex Optimization
Author: Stephen Boyd
Publisher:
Total Pages: 92
Release: 2017-07-28
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 9781680833287

This monograph collects in one place the basic definitions, a careful description of the model, and discussion of how convex optimization can be used in multi-period trading, all in a common notation and framework.

Modern Asset Allocation for Wealth Management

Modern Asset Allocation for Wealth Management
Author: David M. Berns
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 144
Release: 2020-06-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1119566940

An authoritative resource for the wealth management industry that bridges the gap between modern perspectives on asset allocation and practical implementation An advanced yet practical dive into the world of asset allocation, Modern Asset Allocation for Wealth Management provides the knowledge financial advisors and their robo-advisor counterparts need to reclaim ownership of the asset allocation component of their fiduciary responsibility. Wealth management practitioners are commonly taught the traditional mean-variance approach in CFA and similar curricula, a method with increasingly limited applicability given the evolution of investment products and our understanding of real-world client preferences. Additionally, financial advisors and researchers typically receive little to no training on how to implement a robust asset allocation framework, a conceptually simple yet practically very challenging task. This timely book offers professional wealth managers and researchers an up-to-date and implementable toolset for managing client portfolios. The information presented in this book far exceeds the basic models and heuristics most commonly used today, presenting advances in asset allocation that have been isolated to academic and institutional portfolio management settings until now, while simultaneously providing a clear framework that advisors can immediately deploy. This rigorous manuscript covers all aspects of creating client portfolios: setting client risk preferences, deciding which assets to include in the portfolio mix, forecasting future asset performance, and running an optimization to set a final allocation. An important resource for all wealth management fiduciaries, this book enables readers to: Implement a rigorous yet streamlined asset allocation framework that they can stand behind with conviction Deploy both neo-classical and behavioral elements of client preferences to more accurately establish a client risk profile Incorporate client financial goals into the asset allocation process systematically and precisely with a simple balance sheet model Create a systematic framework for justifying which assets should be included in client portfolios Build capital market assumptions from historical data via a statistically sound and intuitive process Run optimization methods that respect complex client preferences and real-world asset characteristics Modern Asset Allocation for Wealth Management is ideal for practicing financial advisors and researchers in both traditional and robo-advisor settings, as well as advanced undergraduate and graduate courses on asset allocation.