Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in DSGE Models

Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in DSGE Models
Author: Lars E. O. Svensson
Publisher:
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2008
Genre: Monetary policy
ISBN:

We study the design of optimal monetary policy under uncertainty in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We use a Markov jump-linear-quadratic (MJLQ) approach to study policy design, approximating the uncertainty by different discrete modes in a Markov chain, and by taking mode-dependent linear-quadratic approximations of the underlying model. This allows us to apply a powerful methodology with convenient solution algorithms that we have developed. We apply our methods to a benchmark New Keynesian model, analyzing how policy is affected by uncertainty, and how learning and active experimentation affect policy and losses.

Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty, Second Edition

Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty, Second Edition
Author: Richard T. Froyen
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 448
Release: 2019-09-27
Genre:
ISBN: 9781784717186

Casting a wide net in this, their second edition, Froyen and Guender provide coverage of the model-based literature on optimal monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty, with both open- and closed-economy frameworks considered. The authors have grounded New Keynesian research of the 1990s and 2000s in the literature of the 1970s, which viewed optimal policy as primarily a question of the optimal use of information, and studies in the 1980s that gave primacy to time inconsistency problems. The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09 led to the recognition that financial markets and institutions required greater attention in policy modelling. Herein, the authors provide a thorough survey of the post-crisis literature that resulted from this recognition.Researchers in academia and at central banks, students and policy makers will value the wide scope of coverage provided in this examination, leading them to a better understanding of issues such as discretion versus commitment, target versus instrument rules, policy in closed versus open economies and the proper mandate for central banks, including the relationship between interest rate policy and macro-prudential instruments.

Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks

Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks
Author: Davide Debortoli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 56
Release: 2017-07-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484311752

Yes, it makes a lot of sense. This paper studies how to design simple loss functions for central banks, as parsimonious approximations to social welfare. We show, both analytically and quantitatively, that simple loss functions should feature a high weight on measures of economic activity, sometimes even larger than the weight on inflation. Two main factors drive our result. First, stabilizing economic activity also stabilizes other welfare relevant variables. Second, the estimated model features mitigated inflation distortions due to a low elasticity of substitution between monopolistic goods and a low interest rate sensitivity of demand. The result holds up in the presence of measurement errors, with large shocks that generate a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and resource utilization, and also when ensuring a low probability of hitting the zero lower bound on interest rates.

Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium-sized DSGE Model

Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium-sized DSGE Model
Author: Malin Adolfson
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2008
Genre: Equilibrium (Economics)
ISBN:

We show how to construct optimal policy projections in Ramses, the Riksbank's open-economy medium-sized DSGE model for forecasting and policy analysis. Bayesian estimation of the parameters of the model indicates that they are relatively invariant to alternative policy assumptions and supports that the model may be regarded as structural in a stable low inflation environment. Past policy of the Riksbank until 2007:3 (the end of the sample used) is better explained as following a simple instrument rule than as optimal policy under commitment. We show and discuss the differences between policy projections for the estimated instrument rule and for optimal policy under commitment, under alternative definitions of the output gap, different initial values of the Lagrange multipliers representing policy in a timeless perspective, and different weights in the central-bank loss function.

Welfare-maximizing Monetary Policy Under Parameter Uncertainty

Welfare-maximizing Monetary Policy Under Parameter Uncertainty
Author: Rochelle Mary Edge
Publisher:
Total Pages: 78
Release: 2007
Genre: Monetary policy
ISBN:

This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated micro-founded general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters. Uncertainty about parameters describing preferences and technology implies not only uncertainty about the dynamics of the economy. It also implies uncertainty about the model's utility-based welfare criterion and about the economy's natural rate measures of interest and output. We analyze the characteristics and performance of alternative monetary policy rules given the estimated uncertainty regarding parameter estimates. We find that the natural rates of interest and output are imprecisely estimated. We then show that, relative to the case of known parameters, optimal policy under parameter uncertainty responds less to natural-rate terms and more to other variables, such as price and wage inflation and measures of tightness or slack that do not depend on natural rates.

Output Gap in Presence of Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Trade-offs

Output Gap in Presence of Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Trade-offs
Author: Francesco Furlanetto
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2014-07-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498331157

The recent global financial crisis illustrates that financial frictions are a significant source of volatility in the economy. This paper investigates monetary policy stabilization in an environment where financial frictions are a relevant source of macroeconomic fluctuation. We derive a measure of output gap that accounts for frictions in financial market. Furthermore we illustrate that, in the presence of financial frictions, a benevolent central bank faces a substantial trade-off between nominal and real stabilization; optimal monetary policy significantly reduces fluctuations in price and wage inflations but fails to alleviate the output gap volatility. This suggests a role for macroprudential policies.

Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty, Second Edition

Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty, Second Edition
Author: Richard T. Froyen
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 466
Release: 2019
Genre: Mathematical optimization
ISBN: 1784717193

This book provides a thorough survey of the model-based literature on optimal monetary in a stochastic setting. The survey begins with the literature of the 1970s which focused on the information problem in policy design and extends to the New Keynesian approach of the 1990s which centered on evaluating alternative targeting strategies. New to the second edition is consideration of research since the world financial crisis on the role of financial markets and institutions in the conduct of monetary policy.