Reviving the Case for GDP-Indexed Bonds

Reviving the Case for GDP-Indexed Bonds
Author: Mr.Eduardo Borensztein
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 25
Release: 2002-09-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145197017X

This paper seeks to revive the case for countries to self-insure against economic growth slowdowns by issuing GDP-indexed bonds. We simulate the effects of GDP-indexed bonds under different assumptions about fiscal policy reaction functions and their output effects and find that they could substantially reduce the likelihood that debt/GDP paths become explosive. The insurance premium would likely be small, because cross-country comovement of GDP growth rates is low and cross-country GDP growth risk is thus largely diversifiable for an investor holding a portfolio of GDP-indexed bonds. Potential obstacles to the emergence of a market for these bonds include the verifiability of GDP data, the trade-off between insurance and moral hazard, and the need for liquidity. The paper discusses institutional fixes and suggests an approach to attempting to start up a market.

Optimal State Contingent Sovereign Debt Instruments

Optimal State Contingent Sovereign Debt Instruments
Author: Mr. Alejandro D Guerson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 31
Release: 2021-09-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513595911

This paper shows that the optimal sovereign lending contract is state-contingent when a government can default. It provides a theoretical basis for the specification of optimal state-contingent debt instruments (SCDIs) in countries subject to large shocks that can be observed and verified by all parties involved, such as natural disasters or global pandemics. The result is obtained as the endogenous solution to a contracting problem under time-inconsistency when a government cannot credibly commit to honor debt service obligations in all possible states of nature. It is shown that rational investors optimally offer SCDIs that include additional financing when the default constraint is binding, keeping the debtor engaged in the contractual relationship and avoiding asset loss. The debtor benefits because the contract implies net-positive financing when facing a large shock, increasing concurrent welfare, while maintaining access to financing in the future for consumption smoothing at the same terms as with precommitment. SCDIs require maintaining debt at a low level compared to the precommitment case, and also a fiscal consolidation when triggered to contain the increase in debt. Extension of the time inconsistency problem to add the taxation of capital returns shows that the optimal physical capital investment is also state-contingent.

Boosting Fiscal Space

Boosting Fiscal Space
Author: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2018-03-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484330935

Noting that the aftermath of the global financial crisis has left many advanced economies with very high sovereign debt ratios and some emerging markets with high debt, this report considers whether there are ways to expand fiscal space that do not involve countries paying down debt or promising to do so in the future, to make fiscal consolidation more growth-friendly. It explains that policymakers argue that their fiscal space is limited and that it would be difficult to take advantage of the opportunity of low interest rates to undertake fiscal expansion, and it considers a ways to raise fiscal space that does not require contractionary fiscal policy and whether there is a way to make fiscal consolidation more growth-friendly to produce larger gains in fiscal space. It argues that debt management policies may provide an answer to expanding fiscal space for a given path of primary fiscal balances by reducing the risk that a sovereign may default in bad states and generate a payoff in terms of reduced to real borrowing costs. It describes two debt management policies: issuance of GDP-linked debt and issuance of longer maturity bonds, as opposed to short-term debt. It focuses on the effect of these debt management policies on real borrowing costs and default risk for the sovereign and details the literature on GDP-linked debt and the maturity structure and how the report fills gaps in the literature; how uncertainty affects fiscal space and how debt management can play a role in increasing it, with estimates and simulations of potential gains in fiscal space flowing from debt management; and the sensitivity of the findings to underlying assumptions and policy implications.

Macro Markets

Macro Markets
Author: Robert J. Shiller
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Total Pages: 276
Release: 1994-04-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0191521655

Macro Markets puts forward a unique and authoritative set of detailed proposals for establishing new markets for the management of the biggest economic risks facing society. Our existing financial markets are seen as being inadequate in dealing with such risks and Professor Shiller suggests major new markets as solutions to the problem. Shiller argues that although some risks, such as natural disaster or temporary unemployment, are shared by society, most risks are borne by the individual and standards of living determined by luck. He investigates whether a new technology of markets could make risk-sharing possible, and shows how new contracts could be designed to hedge all manner of risks to the individual's living standards. He proposes new international markets for perpetual claims on national incomes, and on components and aggregates of national incomes, concluding that these markets may well dwarf our stock markets in their activity and significance. He also argues for new liquid international markets for residential and commercial property. Establishing such unprecedented new markets presents some important technical problems which Shiller attempts to solve with proposals for implementing futures markets on perpetual claims on incomes, and for the construction of index numbers for cash settlement of risk management contracts. These new markets could fundamentally alter and diminish international economic fluctuations, and reduce the inequality of incomes around the world.

Beyond Lending

Beyond Lending
Author: Guillermo Perry
Publisher: CGD Books
Total Pages: 110
Release: 2009
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1933286326

As the drafts of this book were coming together in early 2008, Guillermo Perry argued that developing countries remained highly vulnerable to external risks such as commodity price declines, capital flow reversals, and natural disasters. The economic crisis that has since ensued could not have proved his analysis more true: rather than fall into complacency as the short-term demand for traditional loans increases, multilateral development banks (MDBs) should move beyond lending to provide innovative risk-management tools for developing countries to manage volatility and create long-term stability. Book jacket.

Debt Limits and the Structure of Public Debt

Debt Limits and the Structure of Public Debt
Author: Alex Pienkowski
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 21
Release: 2017-05-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484300653

This paper provides a tractable framework to assess how the structure of debt instruments—specifically by currency denomination and indexation to GDP—can raise the debt limit of a sovereign. By calibrating the model to different country fundamentals, it is clear that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to optimal instrument design. For instance, low income countries may find benefit in issuing local currency debt; while in advanced economies debt tolerance can be substantially enhanced through issuing GDP-linked bonds. By looking at the marginal impact of these instruments, the paper also provides insight into the optimal portfolio compostion.

Growth-Linked Securities

Growth-Linked Securities
Author: John Williamson
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 138
Release: 2017-11-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319683330

This book provides a detailed and comprehensive synthesis of the literature on growth-linked securities, which are an equity-like method of financing for sovereigns. Based on an idea introduced by Shiller (1993), these securities enjoy growing intellectual support. Momentum in favour of them in policy circles has increased since the global financial crisis of 2007-9 and the subsequent debt crisis in Europe in 2010. This book covers many issues on the topic. After surveying the history of the idea and past experiences of countries that issued growth-linked warrants, chapters examine the pros and cons of this financial instrument from the point of view of issuers and investors. The book also discusses technical issues preventing the broad issuance of growth-linked securities and provides solutions to foster their acceptance by market participants.

The Stability and Growth Pact

The Stability and Growth Pact
Author: A. Brunila
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 446
Release: 2001-09-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0230629261

The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) encompasses the legislative text and political resolutions regulating fiscal policy and public finances in EMU. The contributions in this volume analyse the institutional, legal, theoretical and empirical aspects of the SGP, examine its development and evaluate its main implications. The authors include academic economists, who provide insightful analysis, and policy makers who have contributed to the shaping of the pact and have a direct responsibility for its implementation. This book is the definitive source of reference on the SGP for academics, policy makes and economists.

Inelastic Demand Meets Optimal Supply of Risky Sovereign Bonds

Inelastic Demand Meets Optimal Supply of Risky Sovereign Bonds
Author: Matías Moretti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 64
Release: 2024-11
Genre:
ISBN:

We present evidence of inelastic demand for risky sovereign bonds and explore its implications for optimal government debt policies. Using monthly changes in the composition of a major international bond index, we identify flow shocks unrelated to fundamentals that shift the available bond supply. From these shocks, we estimate an inverse demand elasticity of -0.30 and show that it increases with countries’ default risk. We formulate a sovereign debt model with endogenous default and inelastic investors, calibrated to our empirical estimates. By penalizing additional borrowing, an inelastic demand acts as a disciplining device that reduces default risk and bond spreads.

Uncertainty Premia, Sovereign Default Risk, and State-Contingent Debt

Uncertainty Premia, Sovereign Default Risk, and State-Contingent Debt
Author: Mr. Francisco Roch
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 38
Release: 2021-03-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513572636

We analyze how concerns for model misspecification on the part of international lenders affect the desirability of issuing state-contingent debt instruments in a standard sovereign default model à la Eaton and Gersovitz (1981). We show that for the commonly used threshold state-contingent bond structure (e.g., the GDP-linked bond issued by Argentina in 2005), the model with robustness generates ambiguity premia in bond spreads that can explain most of what the literature has labeled as novelty premium. While the government would be better off with this bond when facing rational expectations lenders, this additional source of premia leads to welfare losses when facing robust lenders. Finally, we characterize the optimal design of the state-contingent bond and show how it varies with the level of robustness. Our findings rationalize the little use of these instruments in practice and shed light on their optimal design.