Optimal Fiscal Policy Without Commitment

Optimal Fiscal Policy Without Commitment
Author: Davide Debortoli
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

According to the Lucas-Stokey result, a government can structure its debt maturity to guarantee commitment to optimal fiscal policy by future governments. In this paper, we overturn this conclusion, showing that it does not generally hold in the same model and under the same definition of time-consistency as in Lucas-Stokey. Our argument rests on the existence of an overlooked commitment problem that cannot be remedied with debt maturity: a government in the future will not tax on the downward slopping side of the Laffer curve, even if it is ex-ante optimal to do so. In light of this finding, we propose a new framework to characterize time-consistent policy. We consider a Markov Perfect Competitive Equilibrium, where a government reoptimizes sequentially and may deviate from the optimal commitment policy. We find that, in a deterministic economy, any stationary distribution of debt maturity must be flat, with the government owing the same amount at all future dates.

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management
Author: Mr.Cristiano Cantore
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2017-03-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475590180

The initial government debt-to-GDP ratio and the government’s commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, for low or moderate initial government debt-to-GPD ratios, the optimal consolidation is very slow. A faster pace is optimal when the economy starts from a high level of public debt implying high sovereign risk premia, unless these are suppressed via a bailout by official creditors. Under discretion, the cost of not being able to commit is reflected into a quick consolidation of government debt. Simple monetary-fiscal rules with passive fiscal policy, designed for an environment with “normal shocks”, perform reasonably well in mimicking the Ramsey-optimal response to one-off government debt shocks. When the government can issue also long-term bonds–under commitment–the optimal debt consolidation pace is slower than in the case of short-term bonds only, and entails an increase in the ratio between long and short-term bonds.

Optimal Taxation and Debt Management Without Commitment

Optimal Taxation and Debt Management Without Commitment
Author: Davide Debortoli
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper considers optimal fiscal policy in a deterministic Lucas and Stokey (1983) economy in the absence of government commitment. In every period, the government chooses a labor income tax and issues any unconstrained maturity structure of debt as a function of its outstanding debt portfolio. We find that the solution under commitment cannot always be sustained through the appropriate choice of debt maturities, a result which contrasts with previous conclusions in the literature. This is because a government today cannot commit future governments to a particular side of the Laffer curve, even if it can commit them to future revenues. We find that the unique stable debt maturity structure under no commitment is flat, with the government owing the same amount of resources to the private sector at all future dates. We present examples in which the maturity structure converges to such a flat distribution over time. In cases where the commitment and no-commitment solutions do not coincide, debt converges to the natural debt limit.

Optimal Fiscal Policy, Limited Commitment and Learning

Optimal Fiscal Policy, Limited Commitment and Learning
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

Resumen: Esta tesis trata sobre cómo la autoridad fiscal debe fijar los impuestos distorsivos de manera óptima. El capítulo 1 analiza el problema de la política fiscal cuando el gobierno tiene un incentivo a hacer default con su deuda externa. El capítulo 2 trata sobre el problema de la política fiscal cuando los agentes no conocen cómo el gobierno fija las tasas impositivas. La principal conclusión que obtengo es que, en ambos contextos, el resultado de suavidad de las tasas, que es estándar en la literatura de imposición óptima, se rompe. Cuando los gobiernos no tienen una tecnología de compromiso, los impuestos responden a los incentivos de default; cuando los agentes poseen información parcial sobre el modelo subyacente de la economía, los impuestos dependen de sus expectativas sobre los mismos. Abstract: This thesis is about how fiscal authority should optimally set dissorting taxes. Chapter 1 deals with the optimal fiscal policy problem when the government has an incentive to default on external debt. Chapter 2 deals with the optimal fiscal policy problem when households do not know how government sets taxes. The main conclusion I get is that, in each of these two contexts, the tax smoothing result, which is the standars result in the optimal taxation literature, is broken. When governments do not have a commitment technology taxes respond to the incentives to default; when agents have partial information about the underlying economic model, taxes depend on their beliefs about it.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005
Author: Kenneth S. Rogoff
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 479
Release: 2006-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262072726

The 20th NBER Macroeconomics Annual, covering questions at the cutting edge of macroeconomics that are central to current policy debates.

Efficient Fiscal Policy and Amplification

Efficient Fiscal Policy and Amplification
Author: Mark Aguiar
Publisher:
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2005
Genre: Taxation
ISBN:

"We provide a rationale for the observed pro-cyclicality of tax policies in emerging markets and present a novel mechanism through which tax policy amplifies the business cycle. Our explanation relies on two features of emerging markets: limited access to financial markets and limited commitment to tax policy. We present a small open economy model with capital where a government maximizes the utility of a working population that has no access to financial markets and is subject to endowment shocks. The government's insurance motive generates pro-cyclical taxes on capital income. If the government could commit, this policy is not distortionary. However, we show that if the government lacks the ability to commit, the best fiscal policy available exacerbates the economic cycle by distorting investment during recessions. We characterize the mechanism through which limited commitment generates cycles in investment in an environment where under commitment investment would be constant. We extend our results to standard productivity shocks and to the case where the government has access to intra-period insurance markets. Lastly, we conjecture that our results would hold as well if the government could issue debt subject to borrowing constraints"--NBER website