Optimal Fiscal And Monetary Policy In A Medium Scale Macroeconomic Model
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| Author | : Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 80 |
| Release | : 2006 |
| Genre | : Fiscal policy |
| ISBN | : |
Under an income-tax regime, the optimal income tax rate is quite stable, with a mean of 30 percent and a standard deviation of 1.1 percent. Simple monetary and fiscal rules are shown to implement a competitive equilibrium that mimics well the one induced by the Ramsey policy. When the fiscal authority is allowed to tax capital and labor income at different rates, optimal fiscal policy is characterized by a large and volatile subsidy on capital.
| Author | : Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 78 |
| Release | : 2006 |
| Genre | : Anti-inflationary policies |
| ISBN | : |
This paper characterizes Ramsey-optimal monetary policy in a medium-scale macroeconomic model that has been estimated to fit well postwar U.S.\ business cycles. We find that mild deflation is Ramsey optimal in the long run. However, the optimal inflation rate appears to be highly sensitive to the assumed degree of price stickiness. Within the window of available estimates of price stickiness (between 2 and 5 quarters) the optimal rate of inflation ranges from -4.2 percent per year (close to the Friedman rule) to -0.4 percent per year (close to price stability). This sensitivity disappears when one assumes that lump-sum taxes are unavailable and fiscal instruments take the form of distortionary income taxes. In this case, mild deflation emerges as a robust Ramsey prediction. In light of the finding that the Ramsey-optimal inflation rate is negative, it is puzzling that most inflation-targeting countries pursue positive inflation goals. We show that the zero bound on the nominal interest rate, which is often cited as a rationale for setting positive inflation targets, is of no quantitative relevance in the present model. Finally, the paper characterizes operational interest-rate feedback rules that best implement Ramsey-optimal stabilization policy. We find that the optimal interest-rate rule is active in price and wage inflation, mute in output growth, and moderately inertial. This rule achieves virtually the same level of welfare as the Ramsey optimal policy.
| Author | : Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 61 |
| Release | : 2009 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper characterizes Ramsey-optimal monetary policy in a medium-scale macroeconomic model that has been estimated to fit well postwar U.S. business cycles. We find that mild deflation is Ramsey optimal in the long run. However, the optimal inflation rate appears to be highly sensitive to the assumed degree of price stickiness. Within the window of available estimates of price stickiness (between 2 and 5 quarters) the optimal rate of inflation ranges from -4.2 percent per year (close to the Friedman rule) to -0.4 percent per year (close to price stability). This sensitivity disappears when one assumes that lump-sum taxes are unavailable and fiscal instruments take the form of distortionary income taxes. In this case, mild deflation emerges as a robust Ramsey prediction. In light of the finding that the Ramsey-optimal inflation rate is negative, it is puzzling that most inflation-targeting countries pursue positive inflation goals. We show that the zero bound on the nominal interest rate, which is often cited as a rationale for setting positive inflation targets, is of no quantitative relevance in the present model. Finally, the paper characterizes operational interest-rate feedback rules that best implement Ramsey-optimal stabilization policy. We find that the optimal interest-rate rule is active in price and wage inflation, mute in output growth, and moderately inertial. This rule achieves virtually the same level of welfare as the Ramsey optimal policy.
| Author | : Kenneth S. Rogoff |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 479 |
| Release | : 2006-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0262072726 |
The 20th NBER Macroeconomics Annual, covering questions at the cutting edge of macroeconomics that are central to current policy debates.
| Author | : Kenneth S. Rogoff |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 479 |
| Release | : 2006-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0262572346 |
The 20th NBER Macroeconomics Annual, covering questions at the cutting edge of macroeconomics that are central to current policy debates.
| Author | : Ole Roste |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 214 |
| Release | : 2017-09-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1351504886 |
As a fundamental review and critique of activist economic policies, this book is a unique contribution to classical political economy. "Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization" is about macroeconomic stabilization policy, with emphasis on the value of a distinct national monetary policy to growth. Ole Bjorn Roste's argument is for public officials to restrain themselves in the pursuit of policy. As the author notes: when you know less, you should do less.The history of modern macroeconomics started in 1936 with the publication of Keynes' "General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money". The problems of the Great depression of the 1930s paved the way for a change of focus, from the long run to economic fluctuations in the short run, and from nominal to real variables, such as unemployment and aggregate output.Keynes offered clear policy implications in tune with the times. Because economic adjustment was slow, waiting for the economy to recover by itself was irresponsible. Particularly fiscal policy was essential to return to high employment. Monetary policy could affect aggregate demand through Interest rates, but was less important. Roste discusses the role of monetary policy, starting out with the implications of the theory of optimum currency areas (OCAs). This is followed by estimates of the output loss associated with disinflation policy (the sacrifice ratio) for six OECD economies. Further, Roste models the dynamic adjustment to negative, local labor-market shocks, with particular relevance to Scandinavia, in a final section.The idea that governments should pursue stabilizing fiscal or monetary policies with regard to real variables is often taken for granted by the public, if not by economists. Among the reasons for skepticism, is the presence of differing views on how economies really work, that the state of a given economy becomes known only after a time lag, and that economic agents react to policy and expectations of policy. For these reasons, the effects of policy are generally uncertain. This book explains why the role of history is critical to the study of macroeconomics.p>
| Author | : Frederic S. Mishkin |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 561 |
| Release | : 2007 |
| Genre | : Monetary policy |
| ISBN | : 0262134829 |
This book by a leading authority on monetary policy offers a unique view of the subject from the perspectives of both scholar and practitioner. Frederic Mishkin is not only an academic expert in the field but also a high-level policymaker. He is especially well positioned to discuss the changes in the conduct of monetary policy in recent years, in particular the turn to inflation targeting. Monetary Policy Strategydescribes his work over the last ten years, offering published papers, new introductory material, and a summing up, "Everything You Wanted to Know about Monetary Policy Strategy, But Were Afraid to Ask," which reflects on what we have learned about monetary policy over the last thirty years. Mishkin blends theory, econometric evidence, and extensive case studies of monetary policy in advanced and emerging market and transition economies. Throughout, his focus is on these key areas: the importance of price stability and a nominal anch fiscal and financial preconditions for achieving price stability; central bank independence as an additional precondition; central bank accountability; the rationale for inflation targeting; the optimal inflation target; central bank transparency and communication; and the role of asset prices in monetary policy.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 257 |
| Release | : 2015-04-20 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498344658 |
This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
| Author | : Jordi Galí |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 295 |
| Release | : 2015-06-09 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1400866278 |
The classic introduction to the New Keynesian economic model This revised second edition of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle provides a rigorous graduate-level introduction to the New Keynesian framework and its applications to monetary policy. The New Keynesian framework is the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy and its implications for inflation, economic fluctuations, and welfare. A backbone of the new generation of medium-scale models under development at major central banks and international policy institutions, the framework provides the theoretical underpinnings for the price stability–oriented strategies adopted by most central banks in the industrialized world. Using a canonical version of the New Keynesian model as a reference, Jordi Galí explores various issues pertaining to monetary policy's design, including optimal monetary policy and the desirability of simple policy rules. He analyzes several extensions of the baseline model, allowing for cost-push shocks, nominal wage rigidities, and open economy factors. In each case, the effects on monetary policy are addressed, with emphasis on the desirability of inflation-targeting policies. New material includes the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and an analysis of unemployment’s significance for monetary policy. The most up-to-date introduction to the New Keynesian framework available A single benchmark model used throughout New materials and exercises included An ideal resource for graduate students, researchers, and market analysts
| Author | : Michael Woodford |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 805 |
| Release | : 2011-12-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1400830168 |
With the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, any pretense of a connection of the world's currencies to any real commodity has been abandoned. Yet since the 1980s, most central banks have abandoned money-growth targets as practical guidelines for monetary policy as well. How then can pure "fiat" currencies be managed so as to create confidence in the stability of national units of account? Interest and Prices seeks to provide theoretical foundations for a rule-based approach to monetary policy suitable for a world of instant communications and ever more efficient financial markets. In such a world, effective monetary policy requires that central banks construct a conscious and articulate account of what they are doing. Michael Woodford reexamines the foundations of monetary economics, and shows how interest-rate policy can be used to achieve an inflation target in the absence of either commodity backing or control of a monetary aggregate. The book further shows how the tools of modern macroeconomic theory can be used to design an optimal inflation-targeting regime--one that balances stabilization goals with the pursuit of price stability in a way that is grounded in an explicit welfare analysis, and that takes account of the "New Classical" critique of traditional policy evaluation exercises. It thus argues that rule-based policymaking need not mean adherence to a rigid framework unrelated to stabilization objectives for the sake of credibility, while at the same time showing the advantages of rule-based over purely discretionary policymaking.
