On The Properties Of Financial Analyst Earnings Forecasts Some New Evidence
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The importance of information in the formation process of security prices has a long history. The dissemination of information can take on different forms depending on the legal constraints. However, in all developed financial markets, financial analysts play a prominent role in collecting, analysing and diffusing information. Financial analysts typically supply future earnings estimates and stock picking advices in the form of recommendations. Earnings estimates are the essential part of security valuation by analysts and investors. They have even become an integral part of financial reporting in the financial press. Early research has accumulated evidence that these estimates are optimistically biased. More recently, empirical studies have found that analysts' optimistic bias is lessening, that its extent differs across analysts, firm characteristics and countries. Broadly speaking, this dissertation investigates the determinants of financial analyst forecasts bias. In the first essay, I examine the relative accuracy of European financial analysts' earnings forecasts and its determinants. I show that the results obtained for US analysts can not be generalised to European analysts who face a seemingly different job market as well as several different institutional and economic environments. In the second essay, I investigate the influence of financial analysts' location on their performance. More precisely, I examine the relative performance of local versus foreign analysts on Latin American stock markets. I find foreign analysts to be more timely and more accurate than their local counterparts. In addition, I document stronger price reactions after foreign analysts' forecast revisions than after those of local analysts. The third essay is related to the declining pattern of financial analyst forecast bias. In particular, I investigate whether US CEOs compensation arrangements give CEOs incentives to manipulate analysts' expectations downward in order to release ea.
| Author | : Sundaresh Ramnath |
| Publisher | : Now Publishers Inc |
| Total Pages | : 125 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1601981627 |
Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.
| Author | : Sean Michael Hennessey |
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| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 1993 |
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| Author | : Charles Camic |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 464 |
| Release | : 2012-07-24 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 0226092100 |
Over the past quarter century, researchers have successfully explored the inner workings of the physical and biological sciences using a variety of social and historical lenses. Inspired by these advances, the contributors to Social Knowledge in the Making turn their attention to the social sciences, broadly construed. The result is the first comprehensive effort to study and understand the day-to-day activities involved in the creation of social-scientific and related forms of knowledge about the social world. The essays collected here tackle a range of previously unexplored questions about the practices involved in the production, assessment, and use of diverse forms of social knowledge. A stellar cast of multidisciplinary scholars addresses topics such as the changing practices of historical research, anthropological data collection, library usage, peer review, and institutional review boards. Turning to the world beyond the academy, other essays focus on global banks, survey research organizations, and national security and economic policy makers. Social Knowledge in the Making is a landmark volume for a new field of inquiry, and the bold new research agenda it proposes will be welcomed in the social science, the humanities, and a broad range of nonacademic settings.
| Author | : Cheng F. Lee |
| Publisher | : Center for PBBEFR & Airiti Press |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2017-01-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 986628669X |
Advances in Quantitative Analysis of Finance and Accounting (New Series) is an annual publication designed to disseminate developments in the quantitative analysis of finance and accounting. The publication is a forum for statistical and quantitative analyses of issues in finance and accounting as well as applications of quantitative methods to problems in financial management, financial accounting, and business management. The objective is to promote interaction between academic research in finance and accounting and applied research in the financial community and the accounting profession.
| Author | : Sangwan Kim |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2014 |
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Despite the central importance of equity analysts as information intermediaries in capital markets, prior studies provide only limited evidence on how analysts use tax information reported in financial statements. To seek a deeper understanding of the mechanisms that underlie analysts' use of tax information in GAAP financial statements, we investigate the association between sell-side equity analysts' forecasts and the change in earnings attributable to a change in ETRs (i.e., the tax change component of earnings). We provide evidence that the persistence of the tax change component of earnings embedded in analysts' forecasts is systematically lower than that implied by our model's time-series properties. Recent research shows that the persistence of the tax change component of earnings is a complex combination of both the persistence of pretax earnings and the persistence of the ETR. We provide evidence that the analysts' underestimation of the tax change component of earnings is primarily attributable to analysts' failure to impound the full implications of the difference between permanent and transitory ETR changes. The results also provide strong evidence that analysts' underreaction to the tax change component of earnings is significantly attenuated when managers voluntarily provide earnings forecasts. Further, analysts' incorporation of tax information into earnings forecasts becomes less biased after Regulation FD. This research answers the call from Graham, Raedy, and Shackelford (2012) for more research into the underlying fundamentals of tax-based information prepared in accordance with GAAP, and the extent to which various financial statement users, including sophisticated market participants such as equity analysts, use tax-based information.
| Author | : Emma García-Meca |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2009 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
There is a considerable volume of research on what influences the accuracy of financial analysts' predictions. Although the findings suggest a variety of explanations related to firm size, analyst experience, and forecasting task complexity, the evidence is inconclusive. The meta-analysis method allows an integration of some results on the association between analyst errors and their principal influences. The findings show that country, measurement of the variables, and time period of forecast moderate the effect of some characteristics on analysts' accuracy.
| Author | : Paul A. Wong |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 49 |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Analysts are motivated to fulfill client demand for information, and institutional investors are sell-side analysts' most important clients. Following time allocation theory, analysts likely prioritize tasks and the firms they follow to maximize their overall utility. I posit analysts issue more accurate and informative earnings forecasts for firms that provide greater expected utility to the analyst. Using the firm's exposure to institutional investors, as a measure of expected utility, I find that analysts report more accurate forecasts for firms with greater exposure to institutional investors. In addition, I find evidence that analysts issue more informative earnings forecasts for firms with greater exposure to institutions that rely on private information, specifically institutions with transient investment strategies. These findings suggest that analysts allocate greater forecasting resources to firms with more exposure to priority clients and issue more informative and accurate forecasts for these firms.
| Author | : O. Douglas Moses |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 33 |
| Release | : 1986 |
| Genre | : Economics |
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This study investigates four properties of earnings forecasts made by financial analysts to determine if systematic differences in these properties exists failing and healthy firms. The four properties are: The level of forecasts, forecast error, forecast bias, and forecast dispersion. Measures reflecting the four properties are used in models to distinguish failing and healthy firms and predict future bankruptcy. Results indicate that measures developed from analysts forecasts of future earnings can be exploited to distinguish failing from healthy firms.
| Author | : Pieter Johannes De Jong |
| Publisher | : ProQuest |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2007 |
| Genre | : Economic forecasting |
| ISBN | : 9780549145035 |
This research will concentrate on the changes in earnings forecasts, forecast accuracy and forecast dispersion for growth and value stocks after Reg FD. Each topic is presented in a separate essay. The first essay tests if growth and value stock returns respond more to forecasted earnings changes than they do to changes in earnings and whether these stock returns respond in a different fashion before and after Reg FD. This phenomenon is stronger for growth stock portfolio strategies than it is for value stock portfolios. After Reg FD, the overall impact of earnings expectations on stock returns is smaller, especially for growth stock returns. The second essay examines financial analysts' earnings forecast accuracy in value and growth stocks before and after the introduction of Reg FD. Accuracy for both stock groups (value and growth stocks) has improved after the introduction of Reg FD. The results in this essay provide additional evidence indicating that analysts did not just misinterpret available news but consciously tried to maintain relationships with managers. However, Reg FD efficiently limited these relationships between managers of growth firms and analysts so that the monetary advantage from manipulating earnings forecasts before the introduction of Reg FD no longer exists. The third essay evaluates the hypothesis stating that forecast dispersion, on both growth and value stock returns, has increased after the introduction Reg FD. However, the increased dispersion found at the second quarter of 2001 drastically dissipates at the second quarter of 2002, although value stock forecast dispersion before earnings announcement and value stock belief jumbling remain higher. The results in this essay suggest that corporate voluntary disclosure created a greater variety of opinions and, therefore, more uncertainty about value stocks. Also, value stock returns have a stronger inverse relationship with dispersion because financial analysts have become more uncertain about value firms' performance. The bigger the disagreement about a stock's value, the higher the market price relative to the true value of the stock, and the lower its future return.
