On The Fundamental Relation Between Equity Returns And Interest Rates
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| Author | : Jaewon Choi |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 50 |
| Release | : 2014 |
| Genre | : Economics |
| ISBN | : |
This paper uses contingent claim asset pricing and exploits capital structure priority to better understand the relation between corporate security returns and interest rate changes (i.e., duration). We show theoretically and, using a novel dataset, confirm empirically that lower priority securities in the capital structure, such as subordinated or distressed debt and equity, have low or even negative durations because these securities are effectively short higher priority, high duration fixed rate debt. This finding has important implications for interpreting existing results on (i) the time-varying correlation between the aggregate stock market and government bonds, (ii) the use of bond factors for multifactor asset pricing models and forecasting bond and stock returns, (iii) the Fisher effect and inflation, and (iv) the betas of corporate bonds.
| Author | : Jaewon Choi |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 50 |
| Release | : 2014 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Nargiz Nasirova |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 77 |
| Release | : 2015 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
It is accepted that stock returns are influenced by numerous economic and fundamental factors. This masters thesis aims to investigate the influence of economic factors such as interest rate on stock returns. The thesis explores the theoretical aspects of stock return fluctuations and the factors that influence them, interest rates as an important economic variable, and the interrelation of interest rates and stock returns. In specific, the thesis provides empirical research which examines the relationship between interest rates and stock returns in the Austrian market for the period of October 2004 to August 2014. The empirical part includes an analysis of the effects of six interest rates on stock indices changes in Austria. The research provides empirical evidence of the presence of a positive linear relationship between several interest rates and Austrian stock returns. The explanatory power of regression models increases after adding a market variable. The difference in interest rate sensitivity of different industries is confirmed. The results of this research are in line with the results of previous studies.*****It is accepted that stock returns are influenced by numerous economic and fundamental factors. This masters thesis aims to investigate the influence of economic factors such as interest rate on stock returns. The thesis explores the theoretical aspects of stock return fluctuations and the factors that influence them, interest rates as an important economic variable, and the interrelation of interest rates and stock returns. In specific, the thesis provides empirical research which examines the relationship between interest rates and stock returns in the Austrian market for the period of October 2004 to August 2014. The empirical part includes an analysis of the effects of six interest rates on stock indices changes in Austria. The research provides empirical evidence of the presence of a positive linear relationship between several interest rates and Austrian stock returns. The explanatory power of regression models increases after adding a market variable. The difference in interest rate sensitivity of different industries is confirmed. The results of this research are in line with the results of previous studies.
| Author | : Doron Nissim |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 41 |
| Release | : 2011 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Numerous studies have documented that stock returns are negatively related to changes in interest rates, but there has been little corroborating research on the information in interest rate changes about the fundamentals which the stock market prices. The negative correlation is often attributed to changes in the discount rate, a denominator effect in a valuation model. However, there may also be a numerator effect on the expected payoffs that are discounted. This paper shows that changes in interest rates are positively related to subsequent earnings, but the change in earnings is typically not large enough to cover the change in the required return. Hence the net (numerator and denominator) effect on equity value is negative, consistent with the results of the research on interest rates and stock returns.
| Author | : Robert J. Shiller |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 486 |
| Release | : 1992-01-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780262691512 |
Market Volatility proposes an innovative theory, backed by substantial statistical evidence, on the causes of price fluctuations in speculative markets. It challenges the standard efficient markets model for explaining asset prices by emphasizing the significant role that popular opinion or psychology can play in price volatility. Why does the stock market crash from time to time? Why does real estate go in and out of booms? Why do long term borrowing rates suddenly make surprising shifts? Market Volatility represents a culmination of Shiller's research on these questions over the last dozen years. It contains reprints of major papers with new interpretive material for those unfamiliar with the issues, new papers, new surveys of relevant literature, responses to critics, data sets, and reframing of basic conclusions. Included is work authored jointly with John Y. Campbell, Karl E. Case, Sanford J. Grossman, and Jeremy J. Siegel. Market Volatility sets out basic issues relevant to all markets in which prices make movements for speculative reasons and offers detailed analyses of the stock market, the bond market, and the real estate market. It pursues the relations of these speculative prices and extends the analysis of speculative markets to macroeconomic activity in general. In studies of the October 1987 stock market crash and boom and post-boom housing markets, Market Volatility reports on research directly aimed at collecting information about popular models and interpreting the consequences of belief in those models. Shiller asserts that popular models cause people to react incorrectly to economic data and believes that changing popular models themselves contribute significantly to price movements bearing no relation to fundamental shocks.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : Lulu.com |
| Total Pages | : 294 |
| Release | : 2004 |
| Genre | : Bank capital |
| ISBN | : 9291316695 |
| Author | : Nikiforos T. Laopodis |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2007 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper examines the dynamic linkages among the equity market, economic activity, inflation and monetary policy since the 1970s. The main findings are as follows. First, bivariate results for the linkages between real stock returns and inflation confirm the surprising result of negative correlation between the two magnitudes for the 1970s and 1980s. Second, the bivariate and multivariate findings suggest a weak negative relationship between real stock returns and the federal funds rate for every decade. Third, the results for the real stock returns-real activity pair reveal a weak negative relationship in the 1970s and 1990s, a positive in the 1980s, but no significant relationship within the multivariate framework. Finally, our results seem to imply that there is no concrete and consistent dynamic relationship between monetary policy and the stock market and that the nature of such dynamics has been different in each decade.
| Author | : Emmanuel O. Kumah |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 75 |
| Release | : 2009-11-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451873891 |
This paper analyzes the seven valuation methods for unlisted direct investment equity included in the recently adopted IMF Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition (BPM6). Based on publicly available Danish data, we test the three methods that are generally applicable and find that the choice of valuation method and estimation technique can have a highly significant impact on the international investment position, pointing to the need for further harmonization. The results show that the price-to-book value method generates more robust market value estimates than the price-to-earnings method. This finding suggests that the valuation basis for the forthcoming Coordinated Direct Investment Survey - own funds at book value -will provide useful information for compiling the international investment position.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 1986 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 9780262024761 |
| Author | : Jeffrey A. Frankel |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 428 |
| Release | : 2008-04-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0226260216 |
This timely volume addresses three important recent trends in the internationalization of United States equity markets: extensive market integration through foreign investment and links among stock prices around the world; increasing securitization as countries such as Japan come to rely more than ever before on markets in equities and bonds at the expense of banks; and the opening of national financial systems of newly industrializing countries to international financial flows and institutions, as governments remove capital controls and other barriers. Eight essays examine such issues as the current extent of international market integration, gains to U.S. investors through international diversification, home-country bias in investing, the role of time and location around the world in stock trading, and the behavior of country funds. Other, long-standing questions about equity markets are also addressed, including market efficiency and the accuracy of models of expected returns, with a particular focus on variances, covariances, and the price of risk according to the Capital Asset Pricing Model.
