Credit Risk Modeling

Credit Risk Modeling
Author: Ayhan Yuksel
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Total Pages: 164
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN: 9783838381312

This book deals with the modeling of credit risk by using a structural approach. Three fundamental questions of credit risk literature are analyzed throughout the book: modeling single firm credit risk, modeling portfolio credit risk and credit risk pricing. First we analyze these questions under the assumptions that firm value follows a geometric Brownian motion and the interest rates are constant. We discuss the weaknesses of the geometric Brownian motion assumption in explaining empirical properties of real data. Then we propose a new extended model in which asset value, volatility and interest rates follow affine jump diffusion processes. In our extended model volatility is stochastic, asset value and volatility has correlated jumps and interest rates are stochastic and have jumps. Finally, we analyze the modeling of single firm credit risk and credit risk pricing by using our extended model and show how our model can be used as a solution for the problems we encounter with simple models.

Testing a Jump-Diffusion Stochastic Interest Rates Model in Currency Options Markets

Testing a Jump-Diffusion Stochastic Interest Rates Model in Currency Options Markets
Author: Ako Doffou
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

Because the publication of quot;Advances in Futures and Options Researchquot; has been discontinued, a revised version of this paper was published in the Journal of Risk. This paper examines the ability of the jump-diffusion models to explain systematic deviations in implicit distributions from the benchmark assumptions of lognormality. jumps that occur in the spot exchange rate due to supply and demand fluctuations in the currency market impose distributions for spot and futures prices that have degrees of skewness and kurtosis different from those of the lognormal. Merton (1976) model allows for diversifiable jump risk. Bates (1991,1996) model allows the jump exchange risk to be systematic and derives the correct functional form of the market price of risk. Recent transactions data on futures and futures options are used to test the jump-diffusion stochastic interest rates model developed by Doffou and Hilliard (1999a), as well as Bates' (1991,1996) and Black's (1976) models to price out-of-sample options in a British pound, German mark, and Japanese yen futures market. The tests results show that the jump-diffusion stochastic interest rates model performs better than Bates's model which in turn performs better than Black's model.

Stochastic Modeling of Stock Prices Incorporating Jump Diffusion and Shot Noise Models

Stochastic Modeling of Stock Prices Incorporating Jump Diffusion and Shot Noise Models
Author: Daniel Janocha
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 103
Release: 2016-08-01
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3656987599

Master's Thesis from the year 2016 in the subject Mathematics - Stochastics, grade: 1,7, Technical University of Darmstadt (Forschungsgebiet Stochastik), course: Mathematik - Finanzmathematik, language: English, abstract: In this thesis, we present a stochastic model for stock prices incorporating jump diffusion and shot noise models based on the work of Altmann, Schmidt and Stute ("A Shot Noise Model For Financial Assets") and on its continuation by Schmidt and Stute ("Shot noise processes and the minimal martingale measure"). These papers differ in modeling the decay of the jump effect: Whereas it is deterministic in the first paper, it is stochastic in the last paper. In general, jump effects exist because of overreaction due to news in the press, due to illiquidity or due to incomplete information, i.e. because certain information are available only to few market participants. In financial markets, jump effects fade away as time passes: On the one hand, if the stock price falls, new investors are motivated to buy the stock. On the other hand, a rise of the stock price may lead to profit-taking, i.e. some investors sell the stock in order to lock in gains. Shot noise models are based on Merton's jump diffusion models where the decline of the jump effect after a price jump is neglected. In contrast to jump diffusion models, shot noise models respect the decay of jump effects. In complete markets, the so-called equivalent martingale measure is used to price European options and for hedging. Since stock price models incorporating jumps describe incomplete markets, the equivalent martingale measure cannot be determined uniquely. Hence, in this thesis, we deduce the so-called equivalent minimal martingale measure, both in discrete and continuous time. In contrast to Merton's jump diffusion models and to the well-known pricing model of Black and Scholes, the presented shot noise models are able to reproduce volatility smile effects which can be observed in financial markets.

Interest Rate Models: an Infinite Dimensional Stochastic Analysis Perspective

Interest Rate Models: an Infinite Dimensional Stochastic Analysis Perspective
Author: René Carmona
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 236
Release: 2007-05-22
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3540270671

This book presents the mathematical issues that arise in modeling the interest rate term structure by casting the interest-rate models as stochastic evolution equations in infinite dimensions. The text includes a crash course on interest rates, a self-contained introduction to infinite dimensional stochastic analysis, and recent results in interest rate theory. From the reviews: "A wonderful book. The authors present some cutting-edge math." --WWW.RISKBOOK.COM

Linear-Quadratic Term Structure Models - Toward the Understanding of Jumps in Interest Rates

Linear-Quadratic Term Structure Models - Toward the Understanding of Jumps in Interest Rates
Author: George J. Jiang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 13
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper, we propose a unifying class of affine-quadratic term structure models (AQTSMs) in the general jump-diffusion framework. Extending existing term structure models, the AQTSMs incorporate random jumps of stochastic intensity in the short rate process. Using information from the Treasury futures market, we propose a GMM approach for the estimation of the risk-neutral process. A distinguishing feature of the approach is that the time series estimates of stochastic volatility and jump intensity are obtained, together with model parameter estimates. Our empirical results suggest that stochastic jump intensity significantly improves the model fit to the term structure dynamics. We identify a stochastic jump intensity process that is negatively correlated with interest rate changes. Overall, negative jumps tend to have a larger size than positive ones. Our empirical results also suggest that, at monthly frequency, while stochastic volatility has certain predictive power of inflation, jumps are neither triggered by nor predictive of changes in macroeconomic variables. At daily frequency, however, we document interesting patterns for jumps associated with informational shocks in the financial market.

An Elementary Introduction to Stochastic Interest Rate Modeling

An Elementary Introduction to Stochastic Interest Rate Modeling
Author: Nicolas Privault
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 243
Release: 2012
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9814390860

Interest rate modeling and the pricing of related derivatives remain subjects of increasing importance in financial mathematics and risk management. This book provides an accessible introduction to these topics by a step-by-step presentation of concepts with a focus on explicit calculations. Each chapter is accompanied with exercises and their complete solutions, making the book suitable for advanced undergraduate and graduate level students. This second edition retains the main features of the first edition while incorporating a complete revision of the text as well as additional exercises with their solutions, and a new introductory chapter on credit risk. The stochastic interest rate models considered range from standard short rate to forward rate models, with a treatment of the pricing of related derivatives such as caps and swaptions under forward measures. Some more advanced topics including the BGM model and an approach to its calibration are also covered.

Elementary Introduction To Stochastic Interest Rate Modeling, An (2nd Edition)

Elementary Introduction To Stochastic Interest Rate Modeling, An (2nd Edition)
Author: Nicolas Privault
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 243
Release: 2012-05-04
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 9814401641

Interest rate modeling and the pricing of related derivatives remain subjects of increasing importance in financial mathematics and risk management. This book provides an accessible introduction to these topics by a step-by-step presentation of concepts with a focus on explicit calculations. Each chapter is accompanied with exercises and their complete solutions, making the book suitable for advanced undergraduate and graduate level students.This second edition retains the main features of the first edition while incorporating a complete revision of the text as well as additional exercises with their solutions, and a new introductory chapter on credit risk. The stochastic interest rate models considered range from standard short rate to forward rate models, with a treatment of the pricing of related derivatives such as caps and swaptions under forward measures. Some more advanced topics including the BGM model and an approach to its calibration are also covered.

Stochastic Volatility and Jumps in Interest Rates

Stochastic Volatility and Jumps in Interest Rates
Author: Ren-Raw Chen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper, we examine possible stochastic volatility and jumps in short-term interest rates for four major countries: US, UK, Germany and Japan. An econometric model with stochastic volatility and jumps in both rates and volatility is derived and fit to the daily data for futures interest rates in four major currencies and the model provides a better fit for the empirical distributions. The distributions for changes in Eurocurrency interest rate futures are leptokurtic with fat tails and an unusually large percentage of observations concentrated at zero. The implied volatilities for at-the-money options on interest rate futures reveal evidence of stochastic volatility, as well as jumps in volatility.