Oil And Product Price Dynamics In International Petroleum Markets
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Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices
Author | : Mr.Aasim M. Husain |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 41 |
Release | : 2015-07-14 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 151357227X |
The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
Oil Prices and the Global Economy
Author | : Mr.Rabah Arezki |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 30 |
Release | : 2017-01-27 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475572360 |
This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Dynamic International Oil Markets
Author | : C. van der Linde |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 236 |
Release | : 2013-03-14 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 940157913X |
Writing this book would have been impossible without the help of certain institutions and persons. For a gas-producing and oil-processing country like the Netherlands, there was surprisingly very little, publicly available, research material. Public libraries' collections contained, with a certain degree of inconsistency, little of the more specialised sources. I would therefore like to express my gratitude towards Royal Dutch Shell, and especially the library staff in The Hague, for allowing me to use the company's library, thanking them for their assistance in finding and supplying the required data. I am also grateful for the financial assistance of the 'Nederlandse organisatie voor wetenschappelijk onderzoek' (NWO) and the Faculty of Law of the University of Leiden. They provided the financial means to work a (crucial) month in the very well equipped library of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. I am indebted to the staff of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, and particularly to Robert Mabro and Jeremy Turk, for their comments, support, and friendship. After I spent a month in the Institute in July 1989, I was able to return for two five-month periods in 1990 and 1991. For both periods, the Oxford Institute and the Leiden Law Faculty provided me with the necessary means. I would also like to express special gratitude to some people who have been a great support and supplied me with valuable comments at various stages of the study.
The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation
Author | : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 34 |
Release | : 2021-11-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1616356154 |
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
International Dimensions of Monetary Policy
Author | : Jordi Galí |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 663 |
Release | : 2010-03-15 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0226278875 |
United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Crude Volatility
Author | : Robert McNally |
Publisher | : Columbia University Press |
Total Pages | : 336 |
Release | : 2017-01-17 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0231543689 |
As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.
Commodity Price Dynamics
Author | : Craig Pirrong |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 239 |
Release | : 2011-10-31 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1139501976 |
Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
The Price of Oil
Author | : Roberto F. Aguilera |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 253 |
Release | : 2016 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1107110017 |
This book explains why oil prices rose so spectacularly in the past and examines how they will be suppressed in the future.