Numerical Approaches for Sequential Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design

Numerical Approaches for Sequential Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design
Author: Xun Huan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 186
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

Experimental data play a crucial role in developing and refining models of physical systems. Some experiments can be more valuable than others, however. Well-chosen experiments can save substantial resources, and hence optimal experimental design (OED) seeks to quantify and maximize the value of experimental data. Common current practice for designing a sequence of experiments uses suboptimal approaches: batch (open-loop) design that chooses all experiments simultaneously with no feedback of information, or greedy (myopic) design that optimally selects the next experiment without accounting for future observations and dynamics. In contrast, sequential optimal experimental design (sOED) is free of these limitations. With the goal of acquiring experimental data that are optimal for model parameter inference, we develop a rigorous Bayesian formulation for OED using an objective that incorporates a measure of information gain. This framework is first demonstrated in a batch design setting, and then extended to sOED using a dynamic programming (DP) formulation. We also develop new numerical tools for sOED to accommodate nonlinear models with continuous (and often unbounded) parameter, design, and observation spaces. Two major techniques are employed to make solution of the DP problem computationally feasible. First, the optimal policy is sought using a one-step lookahead representation combined with approximate value iteration. This approximate dynamic programming method couples backward induction and regression to construct value function approximations. It also iteratively generates trajectories via exploration and exploitation to further improve approximation accuracy in frequently visited regions of the state space. Second, transport maps are used to represent belief states, which reflect the intermediate posteriors within the sequential design process. Transport maps offer a finite-dimensional representation of these generally non-Gaussian random variables, and also enable fast approximate Bayesian inference, which must be performed millions of times under nested combinations of optimization and Monte Carlo sampling. The overall sOED algorithm is demonstrated and verified against analytic solutions on a simple linear-Gaussian model. Its advantages over batch and greedy designs are then shown via a nonlinear application of optimal sequential sensing: inferring contaminant source location from a sensor in a time-dependent convection-diffusion system. Finally, the capability of the algorithm is tested for multidimensional parameter and design spaces in a more complex setting of the source inversion problem.

Sequential Analysis and Optimal Design

Sequential Analysis and Optimal Design
Author: Herman Chernoff
Publisher: SIAM
Total Pages: 128
Release: 1972-01-31
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 0898710065

An exploration of the interrelated fields of design of experiments and sequential analysis with emphasis on the nature of theoretical statistics and how this relates to the philosophy and practice of statistics.

Optimum Experimental Designs, With SAS

Optimum Experimental Designs, With SAS
Author: Anthony Atkinson
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 528
Release: 2007-05-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0199296596

Experiments in the field and in the laboratory cannot avoid random error and statistical methods are essential for their efficient design and analysis. Authored by leading experts in key fields, this text provides many examples of SAS code, results, plots and tables, along with a fully supported website.

Optimal Experimental Design

Optimal Experimental Design
Author: Jesús López-Fidalgo
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 228
Release: 2023-10-14
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3031359186

This textbook provides a concise introduction to optimal experimental design and efficiently prepares the reader for research in the area. It presents the common concepts and techniques for linear and nonlinear models as well as Bayesian optimal designs. The last two chapters are devoted to particular themes of interest, including recent developments and hot topics in optimal experimental design, and real-world applications. Numerous examples and exercises are included, some of them with solutions or hints, as well as references to the existing software for computing designs. The book is primarily intended for graduate students and young researchers in statistics and applied mathematics who are new to the field of optimal experimental design. Given the applications and the way concepts and results are introduced, parts of the text will also appeal to engineers and other applied researchers.

Optimal Experimental Design for Large-scale Bayesian Inverse Problems

Optimal Experimental Design for Large-scale Bayesian Inverse Problems
Author: Keyi Wu (Ph. D.)
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED)—including active learning, Bayesian optimization, and sensor placement—provides a probabilistic framework to maximize the expected information gain (EIG) or mutual information (MI) for uncertain parameters or quantities of interest with limited experimental data. However, evaluating the EIG remains prohibitive for largescale complex models due to the need to compute double integrals with respect to both the parameter and data distributions. In this work, we develop a fast and scalable computational framework to solve Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) with application to optimal sensor placement by maximizing the EIG. We (1) exploit the low-rank structure of the Jacobian of the parameter-to-observable map to extract the intrinsic low-dimensional data-informed subspace, and (2) employ a series of approximations of the EIG that reduce the number of PDE solves while retaining a high correlation with the true EIG. This allows us to propose an efficient offline–online decomposition for the optimization problem, using a new swapping greedy algorithm for both OED problems and goal-oriented linear OED problems. The offline stage dominates the cost and entails precomputing all components requiring PDE solusion. The online stage optimizes sensor placement and does not require any PDE solves. We provide a detailed error analysis with an upper bound for the approximation error in evaluating the EIG for OED and goal-oriented OED linear cases. Finally, we evaluate the EIG with a derivative-informed projected neural network (DIPNet) surrogate for parameter-to-observable maps. With this surrogate, no further PDE solves are required to solve the optimization problem. We provided an analysis of the error propagated from the DIPNet approximation to the approximation of the normalization constant and the EIG under suitable assumptions. We demonstrate the efficiency and scalability of the proposed methods for both linear inverse problems, in which one seeks to infer the initial condition for an advection–diffusion equation, and nonlinear inverse problems, in which one seeks to infer coefficients for a Poisson problem, an acoustic Helmholtz problem and an advection–diffusion–reaction problem. This dissertation is based on the following articles: A fast and scalable computational framework for large-scale and high-dimensional Bayesian optimal experimental design by Keyi Wu, Peng Chen, and Omar Ghattas [88]; An efficient method for goal-oriented linear Bayesian optimal experimental design: Application to optimal sensor placement by Keyi Wu, Peng Chen, and Omar Ghattas [89]; and Derivative-informed projected neural network for large-scale Bayesian optimal experimental design by Keyi Wu, Thomas O’Leary-Roseberry, Peng Chen, and Omar Ghattas [90]. This material is based upon work partially funded by DOE ASCR DE-SC0019303 and DESC0021239, DOD MURI FA9550-21-1-0084, and NSF DMS-2012453

Sequential Control with Incomplete Information

Sequential Control with Incomplete Information
Author: E. L. Presman
Publisher:
Total Pages: 304
Release: 1990
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN:

This book is devoted to a specific problem in the general theory of optimal control--sequential control under conditions of incomplete information. The main results concern the case in which at each moment of (continuous or discrete) time only a finite number of controls are admissible and the results of control action conducted in a Bayesian framework are represented by realizations of random variables whose distributions for a given control correspond to one of several alternative hypotheses.**This situation is related to problems in the sequential distribution of resources with incomplete information, problems in the sequential setting of prices in the face of random demand, search problems, and so on. Similar problems are found in the general theory of statistical decisions and in the theory of planning experiments--under the name of multi-armed bandit problems and in the theory of automatic control--as problems of dual control.

Design and Analysis of Experiments, Volume 3

Design and Analysis of Experiments, Volume 3
Author: Klaus Hinkelmann
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 598
Release: 2012-02-14
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0470530685

Provides timely applications, modifications, and extensions of experimental designs for a variety of disciplines Design and Analysis of Experiments, Volume 3: Special Designs and Applications continues building upon the philosophical foundations of experimental design by providing important, modern applications of experimental design to the many fields that utilize them. The book also presents optimal and efficient designs for practice and covers key topics in current statistical research. Featuring contributions from leading researchers and academics, the book demonstrates how the presented concepts are used across various fields from genetics and medicinal and pharmaceutical research to manufacturing, engineering, and national security. Each chapter includes an introduction followed by the historical background as well as in-depth procedures that aid in the construction and analysis of the discussed designs. Topical coverage includes: Genetic cross experiments, microarray experiments, and variety trials Clinical trials, group-sequential designs, and adaptive designs Fractional factorial and search, choice, and optimal designs for generalized linear models Computer experiments with applications to homeland security Robust parameter designs and split-plot type response surface designs Analysis of directional data experiments Throughout the book, illustrative and numerical examples utilize SAS®, JMP®, and R software programs to demonstrate the discussed techniques. Related data sets and software applications are available on the book's related FTP site. Design and Analysis of Experiments, Volume 3 is an ideal textbook for graduate courses in experimental design and also serves as a practical, hands-on reference for statisticians and researchers across a wide array of subject areas, including biological sciences, engineering, medicine, and business.

Sequential Optimal Inference for Experiments With Bayesian Particle Filters

Sequential Optimal Inference for Experiments With Bayesian Particle Filters
Author: Remi Daviet
Publisher:
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

In behavioral experiments, carefully choosing the stimuli is critical for success. Recently, several "adaptive" Bayesian methods gained popularity by proposing to optimally select the stimulus in each trial based on the results of the preceding trials. However, current methods are computationally expensive and might require a long waiting period between each question. Moreover, they are often tailored to a particular model and a particular objective, such as parameter estimation, prediction or model selection. It is left to the researcher to extend these approaches to other models by providing a suitable Bayesian inference method. We propose to apply the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) framework to solve both the inference problem and the optimal experimental design problem. This new method, called Sequential Optimal Inference (SOI) provides gains in computational efficiency and allows for the use of a broad class of complex models and objectives. We demonstrate its validity with simulation studies. An implementation of the method in MATLAB and Python is provided.