On Non-uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models

On Non-uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models
Author: Bennett T. McCallum
Publisher:
Total Pages: 66
Release: 1981
Genre: Econometrics
ISBN:

Many macroeconomic models involving rational expect at ions give rise to an infinity of solution paths, even when the models are linear in all variables. Some writers have suggested that this non-uniqueness constitutes a serious weakness for the rational expectations hypothesis. One purpose of the present paper is to argue that the non-uniqueness in question is not properly attributable to the rationality hypothesis but, instead, is a general feature of dynamic models involving expectations. It is also argued that there typically exists, in a very wide class of linear rational expectations models, a single solution that excludes "bubble" or "bootstrap" effects ones that occur only because they are arbitrarily expected to occur. A systematic procedure for obtaining solutions free from such effects is introduced and discussed. In addition, this procedure is used to interpret and reconsider several prominent examples with solution multiplicities, including ones developed by Fischer Black and John B. Taylor. [Resumen de autor]

The Econometric Analysis of Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models

The Econometric Analysis of Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models
Author: L. Broze
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 249
Release: 2014-06-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1483296288

This book is devoted to the econometric analysis of linear multivariate rational expectation models. It shows that the interpretation of multiplicity in terms of "new degrees of freedom" is consistent with a rigorous econometric reasoning. Non-uniqueness is the central theme of this book. Each chapter is concerned with a specific econometric aspect of rational expectations equilibria. The most constructive result lies in the possibility of an empirical determination of the equilibrium followed by the economy.

Reduced Forms of Rational Expectations Models

Reduced Forms of Rational Expectations Models
Author: L. Broze
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 134
Release: 2013-06-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1136457739

A comprehensive exposition of rational expectations models is provided here, working up from simple univariate models to more sophisticated multivariate and non-linear models.

Reduced Forms of Rational Expectations Models

Reduced Forms of Rational Expectations Models
Author: L. Broze
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 144
Release: 2013-06-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1136457801

A comprehensive exposition of rational expectations models is provided here, working up from simple univariate models to more sophisticated multivariate and non-linear models.

Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models

Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models
Author: P. Fisher
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 215
Release: 2013-04-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9401580022

It is commonly believed that macroeconomic models are not useful for policy analysis because they do not take proper account of agents' expectations. Over the last decade, mainstream macroeconomic models in the UK and elsewhere have taken on board the `Rational Expectations Revolution' by explicitly incorporating expectations of the future. In principle, one can perform the same technical exercises on a forward expectations model as on a conventional model -- and more! Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models deals with the numerical methods necessary to carry out policy analysis and forecasting with these models. These methods are often passed on by word of mouth or confined to obscure journals. Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models brings them together with applications which are interesting in their own right. There is no comparable textbook in the literature. The specific subjects include: (i) solving for model consistent expectations; (ii) the choice of terminal condition and time horizon; (iii) experimental design: i.e., the effect of temporary vs permanent, anticipated vs. unanticipated shocks; deterministic vs. stochastic, dynamic vs. static simulation; (iv) the role of exchange rate; (v) optimal control and inflation-output tradeoffs. The models used are those of the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics, the London Business School and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

Econometrics

Econometrics
Author: John Eatwell
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 296
Release: 1990-02-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1349205702

This is an excerpt from the 4-volume dictionary of economics, a reference book which aims to define the subject of economics today. 1300 subject entries in the complete work cover the broad themes of economic theory. This extract concentrates on econometrics.

International Finance and Financial Crises

International Finance and Financial Crises
Author: Mr.Peter Isard
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 304
Release: 2000-01-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781557758347

This book contains the proceedings of a conference held in honor of Robert P. Flood Jr. Contributors to the conference were invited to address many of the topics that Robert Flood has explored including regime switching, speculative attacks, bubbles, stock market voloatility, macro models with nominal rigidities, dual exchange rates, target zones, and rules versus discretion in monetary policy. The results, contained in this volume, include five papers on topics in international finance.

Exchange Rate Management Under Uncertainty

Exchange Rate Management Under Uncertainty
Author: Jagdeep S. Bhandari
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 342
Release: 1987
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262521222

These twelve essays take up economic management under flexible exchange rates in the presence of uncertainty. Nearly all of the contributions adopt a rational expectations framework, focusing on the stochastic aspects of the assumption and exploring the variability of, for example, output and prices in relation to the variability of various external disturbances.Jagdeep Bhandari is Associate Professor of International Economics at West Virginia University.