Network Effects Of International Shocks And Spillovers
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| Author | : Mr.Alexei Kireyev |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 43 |
| Release | : 2015-07-07 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513542923 |
This paper proposes a method for assessing international spillovers from nominal demand shocks. It quantifies the impact of a shock in one country on all other countries. The paper concludes that the network effects in shock spillovers can be substantial, comparable, and often exceed the initial shock. Individual countries may amplify, absorb, or block spillovers. Most developed countries pass-through shocks, whereas low-income countries and oil exporters tend to block shock spillovers. The method is used to study demand shocks originating from a large and medium country, China and Ukraine respectively.
| Author | : Alexei Kireyev |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2015 |
| Genre | : Monetary policy |
| ISBN | : 9781513511405 |
This paper proposes a method for assessing international spillovers from nominal demand shocks. It quantifies the impact of a shock in one country on all other countries. The paper concludes that the network effects in shock spillovers can be substantial, comparable, and often exceed the initial shock. Individual countries may amplify, absorb, or block spillovers. Most developed countries pass-through shocks, whereas low-income countries and oil exporters tend to block shock spillovers. The method is used to study demand shocks originating from a large and medium country, China and Ukraine res
| Author | : Mr.Alexei Kireyev |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 45 |
| Release | : 2016-03-07 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513555855 |
The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China’s imports as a result of China’s rebalancing of its growth model. A network-based model used in the paper allows capturing higher round network effects of the shock, which are largely unaccounted for in the existing literature. Such effects include direct spillovers from China on its trading partners, subsequent spillins among them, and spillbacks on China itself. The paper finds that the network effects most likely will be substantial, may amplify initial shock, and change the direction of its propagation. The impact on Asia and Pacific will be the strongest followed by the Middle East and Central Asia. The impact on sub-Saharan Africa would be noticeable only for some countries. Spillovers on Europe, including the Euro area, will be moderate, and spillovers on the Western Hemisphere, including the United States, would be very marginal. Metal and non-fuel commodity exporters may experience the largest negative impact.
| Author | : Ms.Yevgeniya Korniyenko |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 38 |
| Release | : 2017-03-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475584113 |
Anecdotal evidence suggests the existence of specific choke points in the global trade network revealed especially after natural disasters (e.g. hard drive components and Thailand flooding, Japanese auto components post-Fukushima, etc.). Using a highly disaggregated international trade database we assess the spillover effects of supply shocks from the import of specific goods. Our goal is to identify inherent vulnerabilities arising from the composition of a country’s import basket and to propose effective mitigation policies. First, using network analysis tools we develop a methodology for evaluating and ranking the supply fragility of individual traded goods. Next, we create a country-level measure to determine each country’s supply shock vulnerability based on the composition of their individual import baskets. This measure evaluates the potential negative supply shock spillovers from the import of each good.
| Author | : Mr.Alexei P Kireyev |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 23 |
| Release | : 2016-07-06 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498351336 |
This paper proposes a network model of multilaterally equilibrium exchange rates. The model introduces a topological component into the exchange rate analysis, consistently taking into account simultaneous higher-order interactions among all currencies. The paper defines the currency demand indicator. On its base, it derives a multilateral exchange rate network, finds its dynamically stationary position, and identifies the multilaterally equilibrium levels of bilateral exchanges rates. Potentially, the model can be developed further to calculate the deviations of the observed bilateral exchange rates from their multilaterally equilibrium levels, which can be interpreted as their over- or undervaluation. For illustration, the model is applied to daily 1995-2016 exchange rates among 130 currencies sourced from the Thomson Reuters Datastream.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund. African Dept. |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 137 |
| Release | : 2016-05-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498388132 |
Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole has fallen to its lowest level in 15 years, though with large variation among countries in the region. The sharp decline in commodity prices has severely strained many of the largest economies, including oil exporters Angola and Nigeria, and other commodity exporters, such as Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia. At the same time, the decline in oil prices has helped other countries continue to show robust growth, including Kenya and Senegal. A strong policy response to the terms-of-trade shocks is critical and urgent in many countries. This report also examines sub-Saharan Africa’s vulnerability to commodity price shocks, and documents the substantial progress made in financial develop, especially financial services based on mobile technologies.
| Author | : Ernesto Vivares |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 370 |
| Release | : 2017-11-15 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 3319625519 |
This book is a critical and multidisciplinary IPE of the unequal structures of South American development and uneven insertions in the global order following the decline of the commodities boom. The work explores the extent to which regional development issues are related to merely a decline of commodities ́ prices and/or to the resilience of the historical structures within an unequal world order. Thus, the authors seek first to analytically explore the regional issues beyond the formal limitations of North American and Eurocentric approaches. Secondly, they empirically scrutinize the complex dimensions of regional inequality and global insertions. Aspects analysed include economic reprimarization, the impact of China, development finance, trade and regional value chains, knowledge and technology, regional and transnational organised crime, cities, economic integration and the Global South.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund. African Dept. |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 129 |
| Release | : 2017-11-27 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484320972 |
Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has recovered relative to 2016, but the momentum is weak and per capita incomes are expected to barely increase. Further, vulnerabilities have risen in many countries, adding to the urgency of implementing the fiscal consolidations planned in most countries and with stepped up efforts to strengthen growth.
| Author | : Mr. Sonali Das |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 26 |
| Release | : 2021-07-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513587390 |
This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers from shocks to other sectors affect sectoral activity, for a large sample of countries from 1995 to 2014. We find that both supply and demand shocks—measured as changes in, respectively, productivity and government purchases at the sector level—have large spillover effects on sector-level gross value added and on a sector’s share of the economy. We then use these historical estimates, together with the network structure of global production, to quantify the spillovers from the economic shock associated with the pandemic. We find spillover effects to be sizeable, making up a significant fraction of the overall decline in activity in 2020.Our results have implications for the design of policies with a sectoral dimension.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund. African Dept. |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 140 |
| Release | : 2016-10-25 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475538278 |
Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa this year is set to drop to its lowest level in more than 20 years, reflecting the adverse external environment, and a lackluster policy response in many countries. However, the aggregate picture is one of multispeed growth: while most of non-resource-intensive countries—half of the countries in the region—continue to perform well, as they benefit from lower oil prices, an improved business environment, and continued strong infrastructure investment, most commodity exporters are under severe economic strains. This is particularly the case for oil exporters whose near-term prospects have worsened significantly in recent months. Sub-Saharan Africa remains a region of immense economic potential, but policy adjustment in the hardest-hit countries needs to be enacted promptly to allow for a growth rebound.
