Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence from Credit Register Data

Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence from Credit Register Data
Author: Margherita Bottero
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 59
Release: 2019-02-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498300855

We study negative interest rate policy (NIRP) exploiting ECB's NIRP introduction and administrative data from Italy, severely hit by the Eurozone crisis. NIRP has expansionary effects on credit supply-- -and hence the real economy---through a portfolio rebalancing channel. NIRP affects banks with higher ex-ante net short-term interbank positions or, more broadly, more liquid balance-sheets, not with higher retail deposits. NIRP-affected banks rebalance their portfolios from liquid assets to credit—especially to riskier and smaller firms—and cut loan rates, inducing sizable real effects. By shifting the entire yield curve downwards, NIRP differs from rate cuts just above the ZLB.

Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence from Credit Register Data

Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence from Credit Register Data
Author: Margherita Bottero
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 59
Release: 2019-02-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498301797

We study negative interest rate policy (NIRP) exploiting ECB's NIRP introduction and administrative data from Italy, severely hit by the Eurozone crisis. NIRP has expansionary effects on credit supply-- -and hence the real economy---through a portfolio rebalancing channel. NIRP affects banks with higher ex-ante net short-term interbank positions or, more broadly, more liquid balance-sheets, not with higher retail deposits. NIRP-affected banks rebalance their portfolios from liquid assets to credit—especially to riskier and smaller firms—and cut loan rates, inducing sizable real effects. By shifting the entire yield curve downwards, NIRP differs from rate cuts just above the ZLB.

How Banks Respond to Negative Interest Rates

How Banks Respond to Negative Interest Rates
Author: Christoph Basten
Publisher:
Total Pages: 62
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

We analyze the effect of negative monetary policy rates on banks, using detailed supervisory information from Switzerland. For identification, we compare changes in the behavior of banks that had different fractions of their central bank reserves exempt from negative rates. More affected banks reduce costly reserves and bond financing while maintaining non-negative deposit rates and larger deposit ratios. Higher fee and interest income successfully compensates for squeezed liability margins, but credit and interest rate risk increase. Portfolio rebalancing implies relatively more lending, also compared to an earlier rate cut within positive territory, and risk-taking reduces regulatory capital cushions and liquidity.

Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP)

Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP)
Author: Andreas Jobst
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2016-08-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475524471

More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.

Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel

Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel
Author: Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2013-06-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484381130

We present evidence of a risk-taking channel of monetary policy for the U.S. banking system. We use confidential data on the internal ratings of U.S. banks on loans to businesses over the period 1997 to 2011 from the Federal Reserve’s survey of terms of business lending. We find that ex-ante risk taking by banks (as measured by the risk rating of the bank’s loan portfolio) is negatively associated with increases in short-term policy interest rates. This relationship is less pronounced for banks with relatively low capital or during periods when banks’ capital erodes, such as episodes of financial and economic distress. These results contribute to the ongoing debate on the role of monetary policy in financial stability and suggest that monetary policy has a bearing on the riskiness of banks and financial stability more generally.

Enabling Deep Negative Rates to Fight Recessions: A Guide

Enabling Deep Negative Rates to Fight Recessions: A Guide
Author: Ruchir Agarwal
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 89
Release: 2019-04-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484398777

The experience of the Great Recession and its aftermath revealed that a lower bound on interest rates can be a serious obstacle for fighting recessions. However, the zero lower bound is not a law of nature; it is a policy choice. The central message of this paper is that with readily available tools a central bank can enable deep negative rates whenever needed—thus maintaining the power of monetary policy in the future to end recessions within a short time. This paper demonstrates that a subset of these tools can have a big effect in enabling deep negative rates with administratively small actions on the part of the central bank. To that end, we (i) survey approaches to enable deep negative rates discussed in the literature and present new approaches; (ii) establish how a subset of these approaches allows enabling negative rates while remaining at a minimum distance from the current paper currency policy and minimizing the political costs; (iii) discuss why standard transmission mechanisms from interest rates to aggregate demand are likely to remain unchanged in deep negative rate territory; and (iv) present communication tools that central banks can use both now and in the event to facilitate broader political acceptance of negative interest rate policy at the onset of the next serious recession.

Portfolio Rebalancing in Japan

Portfolio Rebalancing in Japan
Author: Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 22
Release: 2015-08-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513560220

Portfolio rebalancing is a key transmission channel of quantitative easing in Japan. We construct a realistic rebalancing scenario, which suggests that the BoJ may need to taper its JGB purchases in 2017 or 2018, given collateral needs of banks, asset-liability management constraints of insurers, and announced asset allocation targets of major pension funds. Nonetheless, the BoJ could deliver continued monetary stimulus by extending the maturity of its JGB purchases or by scaling up private asset purchases. We quantify the impact of rebalancing on capital outflows and discuss JGB market signals that can be indicative of limits being within reach.

The Scarcity Effect of Quantitative Easing on Repo Rates: Evidence from the Euro Area

The Scarcity Effect of Quantitative Easing on Repo Rates: Evidence from the Euro Area
Author: William Arrata
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 45
Release: 2018-12-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484386914

Most short-term interest rates in the Euro area are below the European Central Bank deposit facility rate, the rate at which the central bank remunerates banks’ excess reserves. This unexpected development coincided with the start of the Public Sector Purchase Program (PSPP). In this paper, we explore empirically the interactions between the PSPP and repo rates. We document different channels through which asset purchases may affect them. Using proprietary data from PSPP purchases and repo transactions for specific (“special") securities, we assess the scarcity channel of PSPP and its impact on repo rates. We estimate that purchasing 1 percent of a bond outstanding is associated with a decline of its repo rate of 0.78 bps. Using an instrumental variable, we find that the full effect may be up to six times higher.