Multi-period Portfolio Optimization with Investor Views Under Regime Switching

Multi-period Portfolio Optimization with Investor Views Under Regime Switching
Author: Razvan Gabriel Oprisor
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN:

We propose a novel multi-period trading model that allows portfolio managers to perform optimal portfolio allocation while incorporating their interpretable investment views. This model's significant advantage is its incorporation of the latest asset return regimes to quantitatively solve managers' question: how certain should one be that a given investment view is occurring? First, we describe a framework for multi-period portfolio allocation formulated as a convex optimization problem that trades off expected return, risk and transaction costs. Second, we use the Black-Litterman model to combine investment views specified in a simple linear combination based format with the market portfolio. A data-driven method to adjust the confidence in the manager's views by comparing them to dynamically updated regime-switching forecasts is proposed. Our contribution is to incorporate both multi-period trading and interpretable investment views into one efficient framework and offer a novel method of using regime-switching to determine each view's confidence.

Multi-Period Trading Via Convex Optimization

Multi-Period Trading Via Convex Optimization
Author: Stephen Boyd
Publisher:
Total Pages: 92
Release: 2017-07-28
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 9781680833287

This monograph collects in one place the basic definitions, a careful description of the model, and discussion of how convex optimization can be used in multi-period trading, all in a common notation and framework.

Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Regime Switching, Skew and Kurtosis Preferences

Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Regime Switching, Skew and Kurtosis Preferences
Author: Allan Timmermann
Publisher:
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2003
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper proposes a new tractable approach to solving multi-period asset allocation problems. We assume that investor preferences are defined over moments of the terminal wealth distribution such as its skew and kurtosis. Time-variations in investment opportunities are driven by a regime switching process that can capture bull and bear states. We develop analytical methods that only require solving a small set of difference equations and thus are very convenient to use. These methods are applied to a simple portfolio selection problem involving choosing between a stock index and a risk-free asset in the presence of bull and bear states in the return distribution. If the market is in a bear state, investors increase allocations to stocks the longer their time horizon. Conversely, in bull markets it is optimal for investors to decrease allocations to stocks the longer their investment horizon.

Performance Bounds and Suboptimal Policies for Multi-period Investment

Performance Bounds and Suboptimal Policies for Multi-period Investment
Author: Stephen P. Boyd
Publisher:
Total Pages: 72
Release: 2014
Genre: Mathematical optimization
ISBN: 9781601986733

We consider dynamic trading of a portfolio of assets in discrete periods over a finite time horizon, with arbitrary time-varying distribution of asset returns. The goal is to maximize the total expected revenue from the portfolio, while respecting constraints on the portfolio such as a required terminal portfolio and leverage and risk limits. The revenue takes into account the gross cash generated in trades, transaction costs, and costs associated with the positions, such as fees for holding short positions. Our model has the form of a stochastic control problem with linear dynamics and convex cost function and constraints. While this problem can be tractably solved in several special cases, such as when all costs are convex quadratic, or when there are no transaction costs, our focus is on the more general case, with nonquadratic cost terms and transaction costs. We show how to use linear matrix inequality techniques and semidefinite programming to produce a quadratic bound on the value function, which in turn gives a bound on the optimal performance. This performance bound can be used to judge the performance obtained by any suboptimal policy. As a by-product of the performance bound computation, we obtain an approximate dynamic programming policy that requires the solution of a convex optimization problem, often a quadratic program, to determine the trades to carry out in each step. While we have no theoretical guarantee that the performance of our suboptimal policy is always near the performance bound (which would imply that it is nearly optimal) we observe that in numerical examples the two values are typically close.

Single- and Multi-Period Portfolio Optimization with Cone Constraints and Discrete Decisions

Single- and Multi-Period Portfolio Optimization with Cone Constraints and Discrete Decisions
Author: Ümit Saglam
Publisher:
Total Pages: 20
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

Portfolio optimization literature has come quite far in the decades since the first publication, and many modern models are formulated using second-order cone constraints and take discrete decisions into consideration. In this study, we consider both single-period and multi-period portfolio optimization problems based on the Markowitz (1952) mean/variance framework, where there is a trade-off between expected return and the risk that the investor may be willing to take on. Our model is aggregated from current literature. In this model, we have included transaction costs, conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) constraints, diversification-by-sector constraints, and buy-in-thresholds. Our numerical experiments are conducted on portfolios drawn from 20 to 400 different stocks available from the S&P 500 for the single period-model. The multi-period portfolio optimization model is obtained using a binary scenario tree that is constructed with monthly returns of the closing price of the stocks from the S&P 500. We solve these models with a MATLAB based Mixed Integer Linear and Nonlinear Optimizer (MILANO). We provide a substantial improvement in runtimes using warmstarts in both branch-and-bound and outer approximation algorithms.

Multi-Period Portfolio Optimization Model with Cone Constraints and Discrete Decisions

Multi-Period Portfolio Optimization Model with Cone Constraints and Discrete Decisions
Author: Ümit Saglam
Publisher:
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

In this study, we consider multi-period portfolio optimization model that is formulated as a mixed-integer second-order cone programming problems (MISOCPs). The Markowitz (1952) mean/variance framework has been extended by including transaction costs, conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), diversification-by-sector and buy-in thresholds constraints. The model is obtained using a binary scenario tree that is constructed with monthly returns of the stocks from the S&P 500. We solve these models with a MATLAB based Mixed Integer Linear and Nonlinear Optimizer (MILANO). Numerical results show that we can solve small to medium-sized instances successfully, and we provide a substantial improvement in runtimes using warmstarts in outer approximation algorithm.