Multi Agent Based Deep Reinforcement Learning For Risk Shifting Portfolio Management
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Deep Reinforcement Learning-based Portfolio Management
| Author | : Nitin Kanwar |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 71 |
| Release | : 2019 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Machine Learning is at the forefront of every field today. The subfields of Machine Learning called Reinforcement Learning and Deep Learning, when combined have given rise to advanced algorithms which have been successful at reaching or surpassing the human-level performance at playing Atari games to defeating multiple times champion at Go. These successes of Machine Learning have attracted the interest of the financial community and have raised the question if these techniques could also be applied in detecting patterns in the financial markets.Until recently, mathematical formulations of dynamical systems in the context of Signal Processing and Control Theory have attributed to the success of Financial Engineering. But because of Reinforcement Learning, there has been improved sequential decision making leading to the development of multistage stochastic optimization, a key component in sequential portfolio optimization (asset allocation) strategies.In this thesis, we explore how to optimally distribute a fixed set of stock assets from a given set of stocks in a portfolio to maximize the long term wealth of the Deep Learning trading agent using Reinforcement Learning. We treat the problem as context-independent, meaning the learning agent directly interacts with the environment, thus allowing us to apply model free Reinforcement Learning algorithms to get optimized results. In particular, we focus on Policy Gradient and Actor Critic Methods, a class of state-of-the-art techniques which constructs an estimate of the optimal policy for the control problem by iteratively improving a parametric policy.We perform a comparative analysis of the Reinforcement Learning based portfolio optimization strategy vs the more traditional "Follow the Winner", "Follow the Loser", and "Uniformly Balanced" strategies, and find that Reinforcement Learning based agents either far out perform all the other strategies, or behave as good as the best of them.The analysis provides conclusive support for the ability of model-free Policy Gradient based Reinforcement Learning methods to act as universal trading agents.
Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning
| Author | : Stefano V. Albrecht |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2024-12-17 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 0262049376 |
The first comprehensive introduction to Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL), covering MARL’s models, solution concepts, algorithmic ideas, technical challenges, and modern approaches. Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL), an area of machine learning in which a collective of agents learn to optimally interact in a shared environment, boasts a growing array of applications in modern life, from autonomous driving and multi-robot factories to automated trading and energy network management. This text provides a lucid and rigorous introduction to the models, solution concepts, algorithmic ideas, technical challenges, and modern approaches in MARL. The book first introduces the field’s foundations, including basics of reinforcement learning theory and algorithms, interactive game models, different solution concepts for games, and the algorithmic ideas underpinning MARL research. It then details contemporary MARL algorithms which leverage deep learning techniques, covering ideas such as centralized training with decentralized execution, value decomposition, parameter sharing, and self-play. The book comes with its own MARL codebase written in Python, containing implementations of MARL algorithms that are self-contained and easy to read. Technical content is explained in easy-to-understand language and illustrated with extensive examples, illuminating MARL for newcomers while offering high-level insights for more advanced readers. First textbook to introduce the foundations and applications of MARL, written by experts in the field Integrates reinforcement learning, deep learning, and game theory Practical focus covers considerations for running experiments and describes environments for testing MARL algorithms Explains complex concepts in clear and simple language Classroom-tested, accessible approach suitable for graduate students and professionals across computer science, artificial intelligence, and robotics Resources include code and slides
Multi-Agent Coordination
| Author | : Arup Kumar Sadhu |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 320 |
| Release | : 2020-12-03 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 1119699037 |
Discover the latest developments in multi-robot coordination techniques with this insightful and original resource Multi-Agent Coordination: A Reinforcement Learning Approach delivers a comprehensive, insightful, and unique treatment of the development of multi-robot coordination algorithms with minimal computational burden and reduced storage requirements when compared to traditional algorithms. The accomplished academics, engineers, and authors provide readers with both a high-level introduction to, and overview of, multi-robot coordination, and in-depth analyses of learning-based planning algorithms. You'll learn about how to accelerate the exploration of the team-goal and alternative approaches to speeding up the convergence of TMAQL by identifying the preferred joint action for the team. The authors also propose novel approaches to consensus Q-learning that address the equilibrium selection problem and a new way of evaluating the threshold value for uniting empires without imposing any significant computation overhead. Finally, the book concludes with an examination of the likely direction of future research in this rapidly developing field. Readers will discover cutting-edge techniques for multi-agent coordination, including: An introduction to multi-agent coordination by reinforcement learning and evolutionary algorithms, including topics like the Nash equilibrium and correlated equilibrium Improving convergence speed of multi-agent Q-learning for cooperative task planning Consensus Q-learning for multi-agent cooperative planning The efficient computing of correlated equilibrium for cooperative q-learning based multi-agent planning A modified imperialist competitive algorithm for multi-agent stick-carrying applications Perfect for academics, engineers, and professionals who regularly work with multi-agent learning algorithms, Multi-Agent Coordination: A Reinforcement Learning Approach also belongs on the bookshelves of anyone with an advanced interest in machine learning and artificial intelligence as it applies to the field of cooperative or competitive robotics.
Transfer Learning for Multiagent Reinforcement Learning Systems
| Author | : Felipe Felipe Leno da Silva |
| Publisher | : Springer Nature |
| Total Pages | : 111 |
| Release | : 2022-06-01 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 3031015916 |
Learning to solve sequential decision-making tasks is difficult. Humans take years exploring the environment essentially in a random way until they are able to reason, solve difficult tasks, and collaborate with other humans towards a common goal. Artificial Intelligent agents are like humans in this aspect. Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a well-known technique to train autonomous agents through interactions with the environment. Unfortunately, the learning process has a high sample complexity to infer an effective actuation policy, especially when multiple agents are simultaneously actuating in the environment. However, previous knowledge can be leveraged to accelerate learning and enable solving harder tasks. In the same way humans build skills and reuse them by relating different tasks, RL agents might reuse knowledge from previously solved tasks and from the exchange of knowledge with other agents in the environment. In fact, virtually all of the most challenging tasks currently solved by RL rely on embedded knowledge reuse techniques, such as Imitation Learning, Learning from Demonstration, and Curriculum Learning. This book surveys the literature on knowledge reuse in multiagent RL. The authors define a unifying taxonomy of state-of-the-art solutions for reusing knowledge, providing a comprehensive discussion of recent progress in the area. In this book, readers will find a comprehensive discussion of the many ways in which knowledge can be reused in multiagent sequential decision-making tasks, as well as in which scenarios each of the approaches is more efficient. The authors also provide their view of the current low-hanging fruit developments of the area, as well as the still-open big questions that could result in breakthrough developments. Finally, the book provides resources to researchers who intend to join this area or leverage those techniques, including a list of conferences, journals, and implementation tools. This book will be useful for a wide audience; and will hopefully promote new dialogues across communities and novel developments in the area.
Machine Learning and Data Science Blueprints for Finance
| Author | : Hariom Tatsat |
| Publisher | : "O'Reilly Media, Inc." |
| Total Pages | : 432 |
| Release | : 2020-10-01 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 1492073008 |
Over the next few decades, machine learning and data science will transform the finance industry. With this practical book, analysts, traders, researchers, and developers will learn how to build machine learning algorithms crucial to the industry. You’ll examine ML concepts and over 20 case studies in supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning, along with natural language processing (NLP). Ideal for professionals working at hedge funds, investment and retail banks, and fintech firms, this book also delves deep into portfolio management, algorithmic trading, derivative pricing, fraud detection, asset price prediction, sentiment analysis, and chatbot development. You’ll explore real-life problems faced by practitioners and learn scientifically sound solutions supported by code and examples. This book covers: Supervised learning regression-based models for trading strategies, derivative pricing, and portfolio management Supervised learning classification-based models for credit default risk prediction, fraud detection, and trading strategies Dimensionality reduction techniques with case studies in portfolio management, trading strategy, and yield curve construction Algorithms and clustering techniques for finding similar objects, with case studies in trading strategies and portfolio management Reinforcement learning models and techniques used for building trading strategies, derivatives hedging, and portfolio management NLP techniques using Python libraries such as NLTK and scikit-learn for transforming text into meaningful representations
Machine Learning in Portfolio and Risk Management
| Author | : Timothy Tao Hin Law |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2019 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This thesis investigates the applications of machine learning in Financial Portfolio and Risk Management. The focus is to customize machine learning algorithms to accommodate the intuitions or practical needs in the domain. Empirical experiments are carried out to examine the proposed customizations. An extensive breadth of machine learning topics are discussed, explored, and extended. The experiments in this thesis represent the customization of algorithms in three aspects of any portfolio and risk management system: 1. A generic prediction framework that automates predictions to provide insights for future expectations. 2. A risk-aware agent that controls the balance between actively shifting a portfolio and the transaction costs involved. 3. A robust dynamic portfolio selection algorithm that continually diversifies to track switching regimes. Experiment 1: Practical Bayesian support vector regression for Financial Time Series Prediction The first experiment outlines a generic prediction framework that takes advantage of the powerful support vector regression. This framework introduces a faster and easier parameter selection process to determine the model that generates predictions and the corresponding uncertainty estimates. It is shown that the generalization performance of this parameter selection process can reach or sometimes surpass the computationally expensive cross-validation procedure. In addition, an ad-hoc adaptive calibration process is described to enable practical use of the prediction uncertainty estimates to assess the quality of predictions, which is also interpreted as a potential indicator of market condition changes. Experiment 2: Risk-Aware Reinforcement Learning Algorithm to Improve a Portfolio The model-free Monte Carlo control reinforcement learning algorithm is extended, by making use of its episodic nature, to allow consideration of "risk" when training the algorithm. The risk-aware reinforcement learning algorithm introduced allows the user to intuitively and flexibly incorporate any form(s) of risk consideration desired. A procedure is then suggested to filter out potentially unstable policies. The risk-aware mechanism is examined, and its abilities to control "risk" are demonstrated in empirical experiments. In addition, it is recommended to diversity out-of-sample by simultaneously following multiple policies with high in-sample Sharpe ratio. Experiment 3: Expert Advice Algorithms for Dynamic Portfolio Selection The connections between online machine learning and the sequential investment problem are explored in this experiment, and the Smart Switching Portfolio (SSP) Algorithm is proposed. It continually diversifies wealth to assets based on their previous performances to track switching regimes. A newly introduced scaling parameter illustrates the linkage between the learning rate and the action of leveraging. Moreover, the algorithm is theoretically generalized to select assets from a dynamic pool of investible assets. The behavior of the SSP Algorithm is examined. The effect of the new parameter under different volatility levels is also assessed. The proposed algorithm is shown to be the most robust. It outperforms some well-known algorithms, and is particularly impressive as transaction cost increases. A few ad-hoc methods are proposed to potentially enhance the algorithm further.
Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading
| Author | : Stefan Jansen |
| Publisher | : Packt Publishing Ltd |
| Total Pages | : 822 |
| Release | : 2020-07-31 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1839216786 |
Leverage machine learning to design and back-test automated trading strategies for real-world markets using pandas, TA-Lib, scikit-learn, LightGBM, SpaCy, Gensim, TensorFlow 2, Zipline, backtrader, Alphalens, and pyfolio. Purchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free eBook in the PDF format. Key FeaturesDesign, train, and evaluate machine learning algorithms that underpin automated trading strategiesCreate a research and strategy development process to apply predictive modeling to trading decisionsLeverage NLP and deep learning to extract tradeable signals from market and alternative dataBook Description The explosive growth of digital data has boosted the demand for expertise in trading strategies that use machine learning (ML). This revised and expanded second edition enables you to build and evaluate sophisticated supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning models. This book introduces end-to-end machine learning for the trading workflow, from the idea and feature engineering to model optimization, strategy design, and backtesting. It illustrates this by using examples ranging from linear models and tree-based ensembles to deep-learning techniques from cutting edge research. This edition shows how to work with market, fundamental, and alternative data, such as tick data, minute and daily bars, SEC filings, earnings call transcripts, financial news, or satellite images to generate tradeable signals. It illustrates how to engineer financial features or alpha factors that enable an ML model to predict returns from price data for US and international stocks and ETFs. It also shows how to assess the signal content of new features using Alphalens and SHAP values and includes a new appendix with over one hundred alpha factor examples. By the end, you will be proficient in translating ML model predictions into a trading strategy that operates at daily or intraday horizons, and in evaluating its performance. What you will learnLeverage market, fundamental, and alternative text and image dataResearch and evaluate alpha factors using statistics, Alphalens, and SHAP valuesImplement machine learning techniques to solve investment and trading problemsBacktest and evaluate trading strategies based on machine learning using Zipline and BacktraderOptimize portfolio risk and performance analysis using pandas, NumPy, and pyfolioCreate a pairs trading strategy based on cointegration for US equities and ETFsTrain a gradient boosting model to predict intraday returns using AlgoSeek's high-quality trades and quotes dataWho this book is for If you are a data analyst, data scientist, Python developer, investment analyst, or portfolio manager interested in getting hands-on machine learning knowledge for trading, this book is for you. This book is for you if you want to learn how to extract value from a diverse set of data sources using machine learning to design your own systematic trading strategies. Some understanding of Python and machine learning techniques is required.
