Monitoring The Impact Of Covid 19 In Myanmar Agricultural Input Retailers June 2020 Survey Round
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| Author | : Researchers of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
| Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
| Total Pages | : 18 |
| Release | : 2020-10-09 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : |
Between April and October 2020, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Michigan State University (MSU), with support from the United States Agency of International Development (USAID) and the Livelihoods and Food Security Fund (LIFT), have undertaken analyses of secondary data combined with regular telephone surveys of actors at all stages of Myanmar’s agri-food system in order to better understand the impacts of COVID-19 on the system. These analyses show that the volume of agribusiness has slowed considerably in Myanmar since COVID-19 restrictions were put in place. There is lower demand from farmers for agricultural inputs and mechanization services and lower volumes of produce traded, especially exports to neighboring countries whose borders are closed. All actors in the agri-food system are facing liquidity constraints and experiencing increased difficulties in both borrowing and recovering loans.
| Author | : Goeb, Joseph |
| Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
| Total Pages | : 7 |
| Release | : 2020-07-16 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : |
Agricultural input retailers play a key role in Myanmar’s agri-food system by supplying farmers with fertilizer, seed, pesticides, and other inputs necessary for successful harvests. Because farm-level input use is an important driver of yields for all major food crops, shocks to the input retail sector have major implications for the welfare of rural households, as well as for their food security. This policy note presents results from round two of a five-round phone survey of agricultural input retailers. Our purpose is to provide data and insights to the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Irrigation (MOALI) and other agricultural sector stakeholders to assist them in better understanding COVID-19 related shocks to Myanmar’s agricultural input retailers. The round one results emphasized (i) widespread disruptions from the COVID-19 to both input supply and demand, (ii) higher transportation costs leading to higher input prices, and (iii) dramatically lower revenue expectations for retailers in 2020 compared to 2019.1 This note builds on the round one results by (i) exploring the effects of the COVID-19 crisis since the first-round interviews, (ii) tracking sales changes since the first round of the survey, and (iii) providing more detailed information on retailer credit and transportation.
| Author | : Goeb, Joseph |
| Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
| Total Pages | : 7 |
| Release | : 2020-06-09 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : |
Agricultural input retailers play a key role in Myanmar’s agri-food system by supplying farmers with fertilizer, seed, pesticides, and other inputs necessary for successful harvests. Because farm-level input use is an important driver of yields for all major food crops, shocks to the input retail sector have major implications both for rural household welfare and for national food security. COVID-19 and the policies enacted to mitigate its spread have shocked Myanmar’s economy. Agricultural input retailers, like many other businesses, are squeezed between both supply and demand side shocks. On the supply side, agricultural inputs have long, international supply chains that could be disrupted by restrictions on international or internal trade and transport. On the demand side, the shocks to rural households’ incomes, crop prices, and uncertainty could affect input purchases. This research note seeks to help the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation of the Government of Myanmar and agricultural sector stakeholders understand the related shocks to Myanmar’s agricultural input retailers. We conducted a phone survey with 221 input shop owners and managers to understand (i) the demand-side effects of COVID-19 shocks as reflected in sales of key inputs, such as fertilizers, maize seed, vegetable seeds, and pesticides,the supply-side effects both in general and for key inputs, and (iii) business responses to COVID-19 shocks.
| Author | : Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) |
| Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
| Total Pages | : 7 |
| Release | : 2021-10-25 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : |
To understand the effects of COVID-19 and political instability on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, a phone survey of 123 input retailers throughout the country was conducted in September 2021. Key findings: Input prices, especially fertilizer, have soared compared to a year ago due to a combination of higher international prices, depreciation of the Myanmar Kyat, and higher freight and domestic transport costs. Faced with price increases of 76 percent on average for compound fertilizer and 132 percent for urea (compared to a year ago), farmers reduced their purchases by 38 percent and 42 percent, respectively. If the decline in fertilizer sales is extended to all of Myanmar, estimated monsoon crop production may fall by 8 percent to 12 percent, equivalent to between $670 million and $1 billion at 2017 prices. Recommendations: The post-monsoon cropping season will be an important opportunity to partially compensate for lower monsoon season production. There is no indication that international fertilizer prices will fall significantly before planting time, however. A combination of temporary fertilizer subsidies and expanded seasonal credit will likely be necessary to encourage farmers to increase crop production.
| Author | : Lambrecht, Isabel |
| Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
| Total Pages | : 17 |
| Release | : 2020-09-15 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : |
Myanmar has been fortunate in thus far having one of the lowest caseloads of COVID-19 per population globally, with under 400 confirmed cases as of early August. However, as a developing economy still beset by high rates of poverty and vulnerability, Myanmar is highly susceptible to the economic and social disruptions stemming from COVID-19. These disruptions began with the closure of the Chinese border and the cessation of agricultural exports in late January, followed in February and March by further disruptions to trade, tourism, manufacturing, and remittances. However, an economic simulation analysis by Diao et al. (2020) suggests that the most severe economic impacts of COVID-19 stemmed from the temporary lockdown policies imposed in late March, which – though necessary to prevent the further spread of the virus – led to significant disruptions throughout the economy, including the agri-food sector and the rural economy. Phone survey evidence on agricultural and industrial value chains demonstrates that economic disruptions related to COVID-19 are pervasive and significant (Fang et al, 2020; Goeb, Boughton, and Maredia 2020; Goeb et al. 2020, Takeshima, Win, and Masias 2020a, 2020b). In aggregate, economic simulations predict a modest contraction in Myanmar’s gross domestic product in 2020 (compared to rapid growth forecasted in the absence of COVID-19), but a more significant reduction in household incomes at around 12 percent on average.
| Author | : Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) |
| Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
| Total Pages | : 7 |
| Release | : 2021-10-29 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : |
To understand the effects of recent economic and political disruptions on Myanmar’s maize farmers during the monsoon season, we conducted two telephone surveys with 1,178 farmers in July and September 2021. Key Findings There were widespread disruptions throughout the 2021 monsoon season: 11 percent of respondents were displaced by violence in July, and most farmers had had enforced transportation restrictions in their village tracts (58 percent) and their townships (84 percent). Seventy percent of farmers expect these restrictions to affect their monsoon marketing. Two-thirds of respondents received farm credit for inputs in the 2021 monsoon season, an increase of 3 percentage points relative to 2020, and average credit values increased slightly. Most credit was provided by traders (27 percent receiving), which may be unique to maize production as there are broader credit declines in other parts of the country and maize prices have increased in 2021. Additionally, exports to Thailand have been robust. High fertilizer prices will likely lead to a decline in application rates as 63 percent of farmers reported reduced input use, which will negatively affect yields. Median maize farm sizes fell by one acre in 2021 relative to 2020, though average maize acreages were stable. Pest incidence rates (72 percent reporting problems), especially for fall armyworm (45 percent), were high in July, posing another threat to production. There was a decline in access to formal extension services, particularly for information provided by input companies and government extension agents. Farmers increasingly turned to neighbors for agricultural advice.
| Author | : Takeshima, Hiroyuki |
| Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
| Total Pages | : 9 |
| Release | : 2020-08-11 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : |
Agricultural equipment retailers (ER) in Myanmar were originally interviewed by telephone in May 2020 and again in June 2020 to determine how their businesses were being affected by COVID-19 related restrictions. The results of those surveys were published in Myanmar Strategy Support Program Policy Notes 09 and 16, respectively. To trace the continuing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their economic activities, a third phone survey of ERs was done in July 2020. This Note reports on the results of this third survey, as well as changes in the businesses of agricultural equipment retailers since the first and the second surveys.
| Author | : Takeshima, Hiroyuki |
| Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
| Total Pages | : 9 |
| Release | : 2020-07-23 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : |
Agricultural equipment retailers (ER) in Myanmar were originally interviewed by telephone in late May 2020 to determine how their businesses were being affected by COVID-19 related restrictions. The results of that survey were published in Myanmar Strategy Support Program Policy Note 09. To trace the continuing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their economic activities, a second phone survey of ERs was done in late June 2020. This Policy Note reports on the results of this second survey.
| Author | : Abay, Kibrom A. |
| Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
| Total Pages | : 46 |
| Release | : 2020-11-11 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : |
We assess the impact of Ethiopia’s flagship social protection program, the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) on the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food and nutrition security of households, mothers, and children. We use both pre-pandemic in-person household survey data and a post-pandemic phone survey. Two thirds of our respondents reported that their incomes had fallen after the pandemic began and almost half reported that their ability to satisfy their food needs had worsened. Employing a household fixed effects difference-in-difference approach, we find that the household food insecurity increased by 11.7 percentage points and the size of the food gap by 0.47 months in the aftermath of the onset of the pandemic. Participation in the PSNP offsets virtually all of this adverse change; the likelihood of becoming food insecure increased by only 2.4 percentage points for PSNP households and the duration of the food gap increased by only 0.13 months. The protective role of PSNP is greater for poorer households and those living in remote areas. Results are robust to definitions of PSNP participation, different estimators and how we account for the non-randomness of mobile phone ownership. PSNP households were less likely to reduce expenditures on health and education by 7.7 percentage points and were less likely to reduce expenditures on agricultural inputs by 13 percentage points. By contrast, mothers’ and children’s diets changed little, despite some changes in the composition of diets with consumption of animal source foods declining significantly.
| Author | : Boughton, Duncan |
| Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
| Total Pages | : 572 |
| Release | : 2024-10-16 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : |
Myanmar has endured multiple crises in recent years — including COVID-19, global price instability, the 2021 coup, and widespread conflict — that have disrupted and even reversed a decade of economic development. Household welfare has declined severely, with more than 3 million people displaced and many more affected by high food price inflation and worsening diets. Yet Myanmar’s agrifood production and exports have proved surprisingly resilient. Myanmar’s Agrifood System: Historical Development, Recent Shocks, Future Opportunities provides critical analyses and insights into the agrifood system’s evolution, current state, and future potential. This work fills an important knowledge gap for one of Southeast Asia’s major agricultural economies — one largely closed to empirical research for many years. It is the culmination of a decade of rigorous empirical research on Myanmar’s agrifood system, including through the recent crises. Written by IFPRI researchers and colleagues from Michigan State University, the book’s insights can serve as a to guide immediate humanitarian assistance and inform future growth strategies, once a sustainable resolution to the current crisis is found that ensures lasting peace and good governance.
