Outside the Band

Outside the Band
Author: Mrs.Esther Perez Ruiz
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2016-07-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498350976

This paper examines inflation dynamics in Chile during the last peso depreciation episode 2013-15. The evidence is for substantial pass-through effects to inflation, given the large and persistent depreciation movement. Widespread indexation practices in non-traded goods markets are found to amplify the inflation response to the depreciation, while the role of wage indexation is less relevant to the inflation dynamics. Overall, inflation would have remained within the central bank’s target band absent the peso depreciation. The analysis also shows that tightening monetary policy in response to a depreciation shock can be costly in terms of output: the response of activity to rates is found to be strong, while the transmission from activity to inflation is found to be weak. Simulations under uncertainty about the extent of the pass-through also suggest that monetary policy can play a countercyclical role in the face of depreciation shocks at a moderate inflationary cost, as long as inflation expectations remain anchored.

Monetary Transmission and Financial Indexation

Monetary Transmission and Financial Indexation
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 39
Release: 1994-08-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451965400

This paper reviews empirical evidence on the operation of the monetary transmission mechanism based on targeting of interest rates on indexed assets in the Chilean economy. The empirical evidence has two policy implications. First, interest rates on indexed assets do not fully reflect real interest rates because of imperfections of backward indexation magnified by the variability of monthly inflation. Second, while substantial adjustments to interest rates on indexed assets affect the cyclical position of output and inflation, there is no evidence of a stable, systematic relationship between these three variables. In contrast, money growth and unexpected inflation play a significant role in the transmission mechanism. This evidence calls for an eclectic approach to monetary policy. This is a Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment and the author(s) would welcome any comments on the present text. Citations should refer to a Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment of the International Monetary Fund, mentioning the author(s) and the date of issuance. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Fund.

Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Surprises in Chile

Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Surprises in Chile
Author: Mr.Andrea Pescatori
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2018-07-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484363108

This paper assesses the quality of the CBC’s communication policy by looking at the predictability and effectiveness of monetary policy communications by the Central Bank of Chile (CBC). To do so, we construct indeces of monetary policy surprises for the three major communication channels of the CBC: the release of policy meetings’ statements, minutes, and monetary policy reports (IPoM). We assess monetary policy predictability and efficacy by looking at the size and time-evolution of monetary policy surprises associated with meeting statements and the impact of the above communication channels on asset markets. We find that, in general, the CBC’s has been effective in its forward guidance through its statements and IPoM. Policy actions are quite predictable, especially post the global financia crisis. The response of equity prices and the exchange rate to monetary policy surprises have the right sign but are not robust. We also find an asymmetric response of equity prices to minutes suggesting that market participants extract information on the status of the economy especially when minutes have a loosening effect. Finally, to look at the macroeconomic impact we find that a 100 bps monetary policy tightening shock implies a decline in economic activity (IMACEC) of about 2 pp. after one year, while the response of inflation is more muted.

Chile

Chile
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2000-08-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781451807530

This paper presents four studies on selected issues of the Chilean economy. The first two studies address matters relevant to the implementation of monetary policy, motivated in part by Chile's recent adoption of an enhanced framework for inflation targeting. The degree of external vulnerability of the Chilean economy, drawing heavily on international evidence, is also discussed. Finally, this paper also includes a statistical appendix, and three annexes summarizing certain aspects of Chile's economic policy regime. Forecasting inflation is an essential element of any inflation targeting regime.

Chile

Chile
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2023-08-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Following the overheating in 2021–22, the economy is approaching the end of its adjustment cycle towards more sustainable growth and lower inflation in a challenging external environment. The authorities are implementing very strong policies to preserve macroeconomic stability. The government has reform ambitions to raise tax revenues, reduce inequality, reform pensions and health care, and foster a green economy but is encountering strong resistance in a fragmented Congress.