Monetary And Fiscal Policy To Escape From A Deflationary Trap
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| Author | : Yasushi Iwamoto |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 72 |
| Release | : 2004 |
| Genre | : Deflation (Finance) |
| ISBN | : |
This paper provides a theoretical overview of monetary and fiscal policy with the potential to engineer an exit from a deflationary trap, defined here as sustained deflation in the presence of zero interest rates. It is found that the required policy steps are an interest rate hike, a commitment to future currency growth, and a money-financed tax cut. The amount of tax cut required is equal to the increase in the central bank's payments to the treasury resulting from the higher inflation rate (nominal interest rate), while fiscal policymakers must maintain fiscal discipline by stabilizing government debt and the primary balance. There will be a temporary fall in output when prices are sticky, but this is the price that must be paid to conquer deflation. The current commitment to quantitative easing is based on the assumption that the natural interest rate has temporarily declined. If the economy is in a deflationary trap, however, the continuation of zero interest rates reinforces deflationary expectations and may make it perpetually impossible to eliminate deflation. Even under conditions in which the natural rate of interest looks to be positive, if deflation persists, it is probably wise to consider a policy approach that assumes deflationary trap conditions. With this in mind, the conditions required for abandoning the current policy regime should include, in addition to consistently positive growth in the CPI, a consideration of the trend in real GDP.
| Author | : Lars E. O. Svensson |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : Deflation (Finance) |
| ISBN | : |
"Existing proposals to escape from a liquidity trap and deflation, including my Foolproof Way,' are discussed in the light of the optimal way to escape. The optimal way involves three elements: (1) an explicit central-bank commitment to a higher future price level; (2) a concrete action that demonstrates the central bank's commitment, induces expectations of a higher future price level and jump-starts the economy; and (3) an exit strategy that specifies when and how to get back to normal. A currency depreciation is a direct consequence of expectations of a higher future price level and hence an excellent indicator of those expectations. Furthermore, an intentional currency depreciation and a crawling peg, as in the Foolproof Way, can implement the optimal way and, in particular, induce the desired expectations of a higher future price level. I conclude that the Foolproof Way is likely to work well for Japan, which is in a liquidity trap now, as well as for the euro area and the United States, in case either would fall into a liquidity trap in the future"--NBER website
| Author | : Fouad Sabry |
| Publisher | : One Billion Knowledgeable |
| Total Pages | : 410 |
| Release | : 2024-01-19 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
What is Deflation In economics, deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. Deflation occurs when the inflation rate falls below 0%. Inflation reduces the value of currency over time, but deflation increases it. This allows more goods and services to be bought than before with the same amount of currency. Deflation is distinct from disinflation, a slowdown in the inflation rate; i.e., when inflation declines to a lower rate but is still positive. How you will benefit (I) Insights, and validations about the following topics: Chapter 1: Deflation Chapter 2: Macroeconomics Chapter 3: Gold standard Chapter 4: Inflation Chapter 5: Monetarism Chapter 6: Fiscal policy Chapter 7: Monetary policy of the United States Chapter 8: Monetary policy Chapter 9: Causes of the Great Depression Chapter 10: Liquidity trap Chapter 11: Disinflation Chapter 12: Real economy Chapter 13: Quantitative easing Chapter 14: Biflation Chapter 15: Monetary inflation Chapter 16: Debt deflation Chapter 17: Great Depression Chapter 18: Currency intervention Chapter 19: Bernanke doctrine Chapter 20: Lost Decades Chapter 21: Inflationism (II) Answering the public top questions about deflation. (III) Real world examples for the usage of deflation in many fields. Who this book is for Professionals, undergraduate and graduate students, enthusiasts, hobbyists, and those who want to go beyond basic knowledge or information for any kind of Deflation.
| Author | : Fernando Duarte |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 44 |
| Release | : 2019 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
I study how central banks should communicate monetary policy in liquidity trap scenarios in which the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is binding. Using a standard New Keynesian model, I argue that the key to anchoring expectations and preventing self-fulfilling deflationary spirals is to promise to keep nominal interest rates pegged at zero for a length of time that depends on the state of the economy. I derive necessary and sufficient conditions for this type of state-contingent forward guidance to implement the welfare-maximizing equilibrium as a globally determinate (that is, unique) equilibrium. Even though the zero lower bound prevents the Taylor principle from holding, determinacy can be obtained if the central bank sufficiently extends the duration of the zero interest rate peg in response to deflationary or contractionary changes in expectations or outcomes. Fiscal policy is passive, so it plays no role for determinacy. The interest rate rules I consider are easy to communicate, require little institutional change, and do not entail any unnecessary social welfare losses.
| Author | : Kenneth J. Singleton |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 208 |
| Release | : 2007-12-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0226760685 |
How has the Bank of Japan (BOJ) helped shape Japan's economic growth during the past two decades? This book comprehensively explores the relations between financial market liberalization and BOJ policies and examines the ways in which these policies promoted economic growth in the 1980s. The authors argue that the structure of Japan's financial markets, particularly restrictions on money-market transactions and the key role of commercial banks in financing corporate investments, allowed the BOJ to influence Japan's economic success. The first two chapters provide the most in-depth English-language discussion of the BOJ's operating procedures and policymaker's views about how BOJ actions affect the Japanese business cycle. Chapter three explores the impact of the BOJ's distinctive window guidance policy on corporate investment, while chapter four looks at how monetary policy affects the term structure of interest rates in Japan. The final two chapters examine the overall effect of monetary policy on real aggregate economic activity. This volume will prove invaluable not only to economists interested in the technical operating procedures of the BOJ, but also to those interested in the Japanese economy and in the operation and outcome of monetary reform in general.
| Author | : Mr.Olivier Jeanne |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 45 |
| Release | : 2004-09-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 145185790X |
An independent central bank can manage its balance sheet and its capital so as to commit itself to a depreciation of its currency and an exchange rate peg. This way, the central bank can implement the optimal escape from a liquidity trap, which involves a commitment to higher future inflation. This commitment mechanism works even though, realistically, the central bank cannot commit itself to a particular future money supply. It supports the feasibility of Svensson's Foolproof Way to escape from a liquidity trap.
| Author | : Fernando Duarte |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 92 |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : Interest rates |
| ISBN | : |
"The author gives necessary and sufficient conditions under which interest-rate feedback rules eliminate aggregate instability by inducing a globally unique optimal equilibrium in a canonical New Keynesian economy with a binding zero lower bound. He considers a central bank that initially keeps interest rates pegged at zero for a length of time that depends on the state of the economy and then switches to a standard Taylor rule. There are two crucial principles to achieving global uniqueness. In response to deepening deflationary expectations, the central bank must, first, sufficiently extend the initial period of zero interest rates and, afterward, follow a Taylor rule that does not obey the Taylor principle. He obtains all results assuming a passive or Ricardian fiscal policy stance, so that it is monetary policy alone that eliminates undesired equilibria. The interest rate rules that he considers do not require central banks to undergo any significant institutional change and do not rely on the Neo-Fisherian mechanism of inducing an increase in inflation by first increasing interest rates."--Abstract.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 33 |
| Release | : 1998-03-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451844239 |
Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.
| Author | : Ben S. Bernanke |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 469 |
| Release | : 2007-11-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0226044734 |
Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamined dimensions of inflation targeting—its potential, its successes, and its limitations—from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint, and for both developed and emerging economies. The volume opens with a discussion of the optimal formulation of inflation-targeting policy and continues with a debate about the desirability of such a model for the United States. The concluding chapters discuss the special problems of inflation targeting in emerging markets, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary.
| Author | : Ruchir Agarwal |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 89 |
| Release | : 2019-04-29 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484398777 |
The experience of the Great Recession and its aftermath revealed that a lower bound on interest rates can be a serious obstacle for fighting recessions. However, the zero lower bound is not a law of nature; it is a policy choice. The central message of this paper is that with readily available tools a central bank can enable deep negative rates whenever needed—thus maintaining the power of monetary policy in the future to end recessions within a short time. This paper demonstrates that a subset of these tools can have a big effect in enabling deep negative rates with administratively small actions on the part of the central bank. To that end, we (i) survey approaches to enable deep negative rates discussed in the literature and present new approaches; (ii) establish how a subset of these approaches allows enabling negative rates while remaining at a minimum distance from the current paper currency policy and minimizing the political costs; (iii) discuss why standard transmission mechanisms from interest rates to aggregate demand are likely to remain unchanged in deep negative rate territory; and (iv) present communication tools that central banks can use both now and in the event to facilitate broader political acceptance of negative interest rate policy at the onset of the next serious recession.
