Monetary and Fiscal Policies and the Dynamics of the Yield Curve in Morocco

Monetary and Fiscal Policies and the Dynamics of the Yield Curve in Morocco
Author: Mr.Calixte Ahokpossi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 31
Release: 2016-05-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484365461

We estimate the latent factors that underlie the dynamics of the sovereign bond yield curve in Morocco during 2004–14 based on the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. On this basis, we explore the interaction between macroeconomic variables and the yield curve, which is of direct relevance to macroeconomic policy-making. In Morocco’s context, we find that tighter monetary policy increases short-end maturities, and that the impact is small and short-lived. Economic activity is also briefly but significantly impacted, suggesting that even under a pegged exchange rate, monetary policy autonomy and effectiveness can be increased through greater central bank independence. Fiscal improvements significantly lower yield levels. Policy conclusions are that improvement in the fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, as well as greater financial sector development and inclusion, could benefit Morocco and strengthen the transmission mechanisms and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.

Morocco’s Monetary Policy Transmission in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Morocco’s Monetary Policy Transmission in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Author: Mr. Roberto Cardarelli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2021-10-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1589067266

This paper finds that the neutral interest rate has been on a downward trajectory in Morocco since the global financial crisis and may have fallen in the wake of the pandemic. In that context, monetary policy transmission to output and prices appears relatively muted given limited exchange rate flexibility until recently. Also, monetary policy transmission to some market rates has somewhat weakened in the wake of the pandemic. A lower natural rate and low policy rates raise the question of whether further rate reductions would impair the banking system. We find that the sensitivity of cash demand to deposit rates is low, implying limited risks that banks would lose funding with further reductions. A reliance on checking and savings accounts for funding may impair monetary pass-through, however. If monetary policy reaches its effective lower bound, limited and credible recourse to an asset purchase program could usefully complement conventional measures and strengthen monetary policy transmission under an inflation-targeting regime with a flexible exchange rate.

Morocco

Morocco
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 62
Release: 2016-02-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484391926

The 2015 Article IV Consultation discusses key issues related to the economic growth of Morocco. The macroeconomic situation of Morocco continues to improve. Although growth is recovering and should reach 4.7 percent in 2015, nonagricultural activity remains sluggish and inflation remains low. In 2016, growth will be affected by a base effect following the very good 2015 agricultural season, but a gradual recovery is expected in 2017. Although recent policy action and a more favorable external environment have yielded macroeconomic improvements, the reform needs to be maintained to secure longer-term stability and raise growth potential. Much remains to be done to secure higher and more inclusive growth.

IMF Research Bulletin, September 2016

IMF Research Bulletin, September 2016
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 20
Release: 2016-09-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475550545

The September 2016 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin includes the following two Research Summaries: “A New Look at Bank Capital” (by Jihad Dagher, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Luc Laeven, Lev Ratnovski, and Hui Tong) and “Does Growth Create Jobs?: Evidence for Advance and Developing Economies (by Zidong An, Nathalie Gonzalez Prieto, Prakash Loungani, and Saurabh Mishra). The Q&A article by Rabah Arezki discusses “Seven Questions on Rethinking the Oil Market in the Aftermath of the 2014-16 Price Slump.” A listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications are also included. Readers can also find an announcement on the 2016 Annual Research Conference and links to top cited 2015 articles in the IMF Economic Review.

The Morocco Policy Analysis Model: Theoretical Framework and Policy Scenarios

The Morocco Policy Analysis Model: Theoretical Framework and Policy Scenarios
Author: Aya Achour
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2021-04-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513573322

The Morocco Policy Analysis model (MOPAM) was created in the Bank Al-Maghrib to simulate the impact of external developments, domestic macroeconomic policies, and structural reforms on key macroeconomic aggregates. We describe its structure and demonstrate its operation on two medium-term scenarios: (1) fiscal consolidation to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio and (2) the effects of the COVID-19 shock, including the endogenous fiscal and monetary policy response.

A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Morocco

A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Morocco
Author: Daniel Baksa
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2021-07-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 151359298X

The paper describes a semistructural macrofiscal approach to simulating and forecasting macroeconomic policies. The model focuses on only a few variables that are consistent with the New Keynesian framework. Thanks to its simplicity, it facilitates an initial and intuitive understanding of monetary and fiscal policy transmission channels, and their main impact on economic activity. The model is adapted to Morocco and we demonstrate its application with an illustrative scenario of policy responses to a slower-than-expected recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, under different monetary policy and exchange rate regimes.

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 74
Release: 2015-10-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498344062

Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.

Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls

Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls
Author: Mokhtar Benlamine
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2018-02-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484341813

The Central Bank of Morocco has been working on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a gradual move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime and the eventual adoption of a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime. At the center of the FPAS is a quarterly projection model that was tailored for two different types of exchange rate regimes. Presently, the fixed exchange rate model version is to be used during the pre-IT period, while the flexible exchange rate model version is to be used to prepare alternative scenarios for monetary policy decision makers to discuss the potential policy implications of shocks under an IT regime.

Monetary Issues in the Middle East and North Africa Region

Monetary Issues in the Middle East and North Africa Region
Author: Mr.Simon Gray
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 176
Release: 2013-05-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484349032

This paper documents the main themes covered in two seminars (December 2011 and September 2012) on monetary policy and implementation at the IMF—Middle East Center for Economics and Finance, and includes country case studies. Against the backdrop of the global financial crisis and swings in cross-border capital flows, operational frameworks have become more flexible, and liquidity management has impacted the relationship between the policy rate corridor and market rates. The balance sheet structure of central banks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) shows differences between oil exporters and others, while a few countries have exhibited notable changes since early 2011. Collateral now has a significant financial stability function. Although only one MENA country is part of the G20, implementation of the Basel III bank capital adequacy and liquidity rules will most likely impact banks’ way of doing business in MENA countries, even if indirectly.