Monetary and Exchange Rate Dynamics During Disinflation

Monetary and Exchange Rate Dynamics During Disinflation
Author: Mr.Andres Arias Leiva
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2005-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451860528

Based on the observed behavior of monetary aggregates and exchange rates, we classify inflation-stabilization episodes into two categories: de facto exchange rate-based stabilizations (ERBS) and non-ERBS. Unlike the standard de jure ERBS studied in the literature, de facto ERBS encompass cases in which the central bank intervenes in the foreign exchange market but does not preannounce the use of an exchange rate anchor. The number of the de facto ERBS is twice as large as that of de jure ERBS. Output dynamics during disinflation do not differ significantly between these two groups. We conclude that empirical studies on the effects of exchange rate anchors must seek to disentangle the effects of their announcement from those related to their role in the remonetization process.

Supply-Side Effects of Disinflation Programs

Supply-Side Effects of Disinflation Programs
Author: Mr.Jorge Roldos
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 1994-07-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451954425

This paper focuses on the short-run and long-run supply-side effects of disinflation programs in a two-sector economy. Fixing the exchange rate reduces the wedge between the return on foreign assets and that on domestic capital, leading to an increase in the latter. After an initial real exchange rate appreciation and increase in the production of nontradables—due to a consumption boom—the new capital is gradually installed in the tradable sector. During this transitional period, further real appreciation takes place—as the expansion of the tradable sector pulls labor away from the nontradable sector—together with investment-driven deficits in the current account. We conclude that when appreciation and deficits are due to supply-side rigidities, rather than to credibility and/or price stickiness, no further policies (i.e., capital controls, incomes policies) are advisable.

On Credible Disinflation

On Credible Disinflation
Author: Mr.Jorge Roldos
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 1993-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451851340

We study the effects of a credible, gradual exchange rate based disinflation program in a two sector economy. After an initial real exchange rate depreciation, the reductions in the rate of devaluation reduce the monetary wedge generated by a cash in advance constraint, leading to a gradual increase in absorption that yields progressive real exchange rate appreciations and current account deficits. An initial boom in economic activity is not followed by a later contraction, as labor supply expands during the whole length of the program.

Inflation and Disinflation

Inflation and Disinflation
Author: Leonardo Leiderman
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 364
Release: 1993-07-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780226471105

During the early 1980s, Israel's inflation rate rose to almost 500% per year—one of the highest inflation rates in the developed world. In 1985, the Israeli government implemented a program that immediately reduced inflation to 15%-20%, where it remained for the rest of the decade. How did the economy deal with these major changes so rapidly and successfully? In these eighteen articles, Leonardo Leiderman discusses why the Israeli plan worked and considers how other countries might benefit from similar policies. Even though standard economic models predict that output will drop and unemployment will rise during disinflation, Israel saw a boom in private consumption and large increases in real wages that lasted for about three years. To understand how the effects of Israeli disinflation policies defied typical expectations, Leiderman investigates how monetary fiscal policy determined Israel's runaway inflation and how the country brought its economy abruptly under control. He finds that rates of inflation and consumption depend on the public's expectations about future fiscal adjustments and that foreign trade shocks do not inevitably lead to a long-term rise in the inflation rate. His illumination of international trade and domestic policies, past and present, will interest academic economists and policymakers alike.

Exchange Rates, Inflation and Disinflation

Exchange Rates, Inflation and Disinflation
Author: Sebastian Edwards
Publisher:
Total Pages: 88
Release: 1993
Genre: Foreign exchange
ISBN:

This paper analyzes the relationship between exchange rates, inflation and disinflation in Latin America. The analysis concentrates on two central issues. First, the historical experience with fixed exchange rates in four Latin American countries is investigated. It is shown that even though these countries had the ability to undertake independent monetary policy, they chose to play by the "rules of the game". Until 1973, when the first oil shock took place, these countries strictly respected the constraints imposed by fixed exchange rates on their domestic credit policy. Between that date and the late 1980s, when the fixed rates were finally abandoned, they tried to ignore these constraints. This generated losses of reserves and increased inflation. The second issue addressed in the paper refers to the use of a nominal exchange rate anchor to reduce inflation. Data on Chile, Mexico and Venezuela are used to investigate the extent to which alternative exchange rate regimes affect inflationary inertia. It is found that fixing the exchange rate will not, on its own, reduce the degree of inertia.

Credibility and Exchange Rate Management in Developing Countries

Credibility and Exchange Rate Management in Developing Countries
Author: Pierre-Richard Agénor
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 43
Release: 1991-09-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451850921

The paper examines the role of credibility in the conduct of exchange rate policy in developing countries, The analysis is based on a model in which policymakers are concerned about inflation and external competitiveness. Price setters in the nontraded goods sector of the economy adjust prices in reaction to anticipated fluctuations in the domestic price of tradable goods. This type of model is showm to generate a “devaluation bias” which undermines the credibility of a fixed exchange rate. The effect of reputational factors, signaling considerations, and joining a currency union as possible solutions to this bias is examined.

Disinflation, External Vulnerability, and Fiscal Intransigence

Disinflation, External Vulnerability, and Fiscal Intransigence
Author: Mr.Evan C Tanner
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2017-05-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484301145

This paper examines the policy challenges a country faces when it wants to both reduce inflation and maintain a sustainable external position. Mundell’s (1962) policy assignment framework suggests that these two goals may be mutually incompatible unless monetary and fiscal policies are properly coordinated. Unfortunately, if the fiscal authority is unwilling to cooperate—a case of fiscal intransigence—central banks that pursue a disinflation on a ‘go it alone’ basis will cause the country’s external position to further deteriorate. A dynamic analysis shows that if the central bank itself lacks credibility in its inflation goal, it must rely even more on cooperation from the fiscal authority than otherwise. Echoing Sargent and Wallace’s (1981) ‘unpleasant monetarist arithmetic,’ in these circumstances, a ‘go it alone’ policy may successfully stabilize prices and output, but only on a short-term basis.

Disinflation and the Recession-Now-Versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis

Disinflation and the Recession-Now-Versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis
Author: Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 46
Release: 1995-10-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451852215

Both analytical models and casual empiricism suggest that the timing of the recessionary costs associated with inflation stabilization in chronic inflation countries may depend on the nominal anchor which is used. Under money-based stabilization, the recession occurs at the beginning of the program, while under exchange rate-based stabilization the recession occurs later in the program. This paper provides a first attempt to formally test this hypothesis using a vector-autoregression model for Uruguay. The impulse response of output to different stabilization policies is broadly consistent with the “recession-now-versus-recession-later” hypothesis. The evidence also suggests, however, that the effectiveness of a monetary anchor in reducing inflation is hindered by the high degree of dollarization of the Uruguayan economy.

Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey

Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey
Author: Faruk Selcuk
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 190
Release: 2018-04-27
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 135173928X

This title was first published in 2002. Since the 1990s Turkey has experienced a number of disasters, both physical and economic. The result has been a decrease in economic performance compared to other European states. This study addresses the country's ongoing economic struggles.