Modelling Inflation Dynamics

Modelling Inflation Dynamics
Author: Jeremy B. Rudd
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

In recent years, a broad academic consensus has arisen around the use of rational expectations sticky-price models to capture inflation dynamics. These models are seen as providing an empirically reasonable characterization of observed inflation behavior once suitable measures of the output gap are chosen; and, moreover, are perceived to be robust to the Lucas critique in a way that earlier econometric models of inflation are not. We review the principal conclusions of this literature concerning: 1) the ability of these models to fit the data; 2) the importance of rational forward-looking expectations in price setting; and 3) the appropriate measure of inflationary pressures. We argue that existing rational expectations sticky-price models fail to provide a useful empirical description of the inflation process, especially relative to traditional econometric Phillips curves of the sort commonly employed for policy analysis and forecasting.

Explaining Inflation in Colombia: A Disaggregated Phillips Curve Approach

Explaining Inflation in Colombia: A Disaggregated Phillips Curve Approach
Author: Mr.Sergi Lanau
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2018-05-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484356314

We study inflation dynamics in Colombia using a bottom-up Phillips curve approach. This allows us to capture the different drivers of individual inflation components. We find that the Phillips curve is relatively flat in Colombia but steeper than recent estimates for the U.S. Supply side shocks play an important role for tradable and food prices, while indexation dynamics are important for non-tradable goods. We show that besides allowing for a more detailed understanding of inflation drivers, the bottom-up approach also improves on an aggregate Phillips curve in terms of forecasting ability. In the baseline forecast scenario, both headline and core inflation converge towards the Central Bank’s inflation target of 3 percent by end-2018 but these favorable inflation dynamics are vulnerable to large supply shocks.

Inflation Dynamics and Inflation Uncertainty in a Model with Heterogeneous Forecasts

Inflation Dynamics and Inflation Uncertainty in a Model with Heterogeneous Forecasts
Author: William A. Brock
Publisher:
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

Recent research in macroeconomics has sought to develop a tractable form of heterogeneity in attempting to model sluggishness of response of the economy consistent with data. Sims (2003) argued that limited information processing was a promising avenue for understanding pervasive stickiness. Under his rational inattention, consumers or firms respond more slowly to the true underlying state of the economy because they are learning what the true state is. The information flow necessary to completely understand the true state of the economy is too overwhelming. In our paper, we have an endogenous ecology of expectations. Formally, we consider a model economy with a generic number of expectations formation types, represented by I. We develop a mapping from which conceptualizes the dynamics of the ecology of expectations. This mapping has a fixed point that describes a long run stationary equilibrium after an appropriate change of units. We show that a stationary equilibrium exists. We study the response differences in the dynamics of the inflation rate to changes in the mean and variance of the money supply process in economies indexed by the fraction of agents that have fully structural rational expectations. We develop small noise expansions to obtain analytical results of our economy in response to stochastic money supply processes. Lastly, we apply robust control methods, deriving conditions in which robustness leads to a temporary strong increase in the demand for money. Inflationary pressures are accordingly dampened. These results have implications for cases, like the Great Recession, in which the effects of greater model uncertainty may have played a role in keeping inflation rates low even in the face of expanding money supply.

Modeling Inflation in Chad

Modeling Inflation in Chad
Author: Mr.Tidiane Kinda
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2011-03-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455221015

This paper examines the determinants of inflation in Chad using quarterly data from 1983:Q1 to 2009:Q3. The analysis is based on a single-equation model, completed by a structural vector auto regression model to capture inflation persistence. The results show that the main determinants of inflation in Chad are rainfall, foreign prices, exchange rate movements, and public spending. The effects of rainfall shocks and changes in foreign prices on inflation persist during six quarters. Changes in public spending and the nominal exchange rate affect inflation during three and four quarters, respectively.

Inflation Dynamics

Inflation Dynamics
Author: Jordi Galí
Publisher:
Total Pages: 23
Release: 2000
Genre: Inflation (Finance)
ISBN:

We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to set prices. The model nests the purely forward looking New Keynesian Phillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of arginal cost as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theory suggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap. Real marginal costs are a significant and quantitatively important determinant of inflation. Backward looking price setting, while statistically significant, is not quantitatively important. Thus, we conclude that the New Keynesian Phillips curve provides a good first approximation to the dynamics of inflation.