The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation
Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2021-11-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1616356154

This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies

Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies
Author: Geraldine Dany-Knedlik
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2018-06-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484363043

This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.

The Oxford Handbook of the Malawi Economy

The Oxford Handbook of the Malawi Economy
Author: Hopestone Chavula
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 705
Release: 2024-09-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0198890184

The Oxford Handbook of the Malawi Economy is an essential reference material with new research contributions and insights across the different areas of economic development to shape the country's future growth and development trajectory. The volume is the first publication that tries to assess the performance of the Malawi economy since independence, by examining how the underpinning political and economic history, and the associated policies and strategies have affected the country's long-term socio-economic development. It captures a broad range of opinions, approaches, and conclusions, which serve to underline both the complexity of the issues and challenges facing Malawi, and the immense difficulties in tackling them. Common themes emerge as many authors agree that the country needs to learn from its past experiences in terms of policy design and implementation, and the need to implement dynamic policies that could spur productive and sustained growth and development by tackling challenges associated with the continuously evolving global economic environment.

Why Inflation Targeting?

Why Inflation Targeting?
Author: Charles Freedman
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2009-04-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145187233X

This is the second chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." We begin by discussing the costs of inflation, including their role in generating boom-bust cycles. Following a general discussion of the need for a nominal anchor, we describe a specific type of monetary anchor, the inflation-targeting regime, and its two key intellectual roots-the absence of long-run trade-offs and the time-inconsistency problem. We conclude by providing a brief introduction to the way in which inflation targeting works.

Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines

Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines
Author: Mr.Si Guo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 20
Release: 2019-07-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498319327

Inflation rates rose sharply in the Philippines during 2018. Understanding the demand and supply sources of inflation pressures is key to monetary policy response. Qualitatively, indicators have pointed to evidence of inflation pressures from both sides in 2018, with the supply factors, by and large, associated with commodity-price shocks and demand factors deduced from gleaning at the wider non-oil trade deficits seen in the Philippines. Quantitatively, we deploy a semi-structural model to decompose the contributions of various shocks to inflation. Our main findings are (1) supply factors (mainly global commodity prices) played a prominent role in explaining the rise in inflation in 2018; (2) demand factors also contributed to inflation in a non-negligible way, justifying the need for tighter monetary policy in 2018; (3) the size of the estimated output gap (an important indicator of demand pressures) could be larger, when considering the widening trade deficits in 2018; and (4) a delayed monetary policy tightening can be costly in terms of higher inflation rates, requiring larger and more aggressive interest rate hikes to bring inflation under control, based on a counterfactual exercise.

Linear and Non-Linear Financial Econometrics

Linear and Non-Linear Financial Econometrics
Author: Mehmet Terzioğlu
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
Total Pages: 339
Release: 2021-03-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1839624868

The importance of experimental economics and econometric methods increases with each passing day as data quality and software performance develops. New econometric models are developed by diverging from earlier cliché econometric models with the emergence of specialized fields of study. This book, which is expected to be an extensive and useful reference by bringing together some of the latest developments in the field of econometrics, also contains quantitative examples and problem sets. We thank all the authors who contributed to this book with their studies that provide extensive and accessible explanations of the existing econometric methods.

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies
Author: Jongrim Ha
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 524
Release: 2019-02-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464813760

This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

Global Economic Prospects, June 2021

Global Economic Prospects, June 2021
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 339
Release: 2021-08-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464816662

The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.