Microscopic Vehicle Emission Modelling

Microscopic Vehicle Emission Modelling
Author: Hajar Hajmohammadi Hosseinabadi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 188
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

Vehicle emission models are widely used to estimate air pollution from road transport. This estimation can then be considered for transport management and traffic control policies, to quantify their impacts on urban air quality. The focus of this study is to investigate the relationship between vehicle dynamics and tailpipe emission by statistical methods. These methods are: log- polynomial and classified log-polynomial model based on acceleration and deceleration, lagged regression and transfer function model based on time series analysis, gear-based emission model based on estimated transmission gear components, and the general additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) based on spline functions. The dataset for this study is second-by-second emission laboratory measurements of four different vehicle types while following a driving cycle recorded in urban, suburban and motorway areas of London. The vehicles can be categorized by size (compact and saloon), fuel type (petrol and diesel) and transmission type (manual and automatic). For each vehicle type, CO2, CO and NOx emissions are estimated in each second of driving by the speed profile as the main explanatory variable. The six emission models developed in this study are: Log-polynomial (LP), classified log-polynomial (CLP), lagged regression (LR), transfer function (TF), gear-based and GAMLSS. These are evaluated using the BIC, total emission recovery and statistical time series analysis of the residuals. The GAMLSS model consistently has the best BIC values for all vehicle and emission types, while the recovery ratio of this model is within 1% for all vehicle types. In addition, statistical analysis of the ACF/PACF time series plots shows that the GAMLSS emission model is clearer from the significant lags compared to the parametric models (LP, TF, Gear-based, gear-based and CLP). Among the parametric models, the classified models represent the emission relationship better than others. The best BIC values (after GAMLSS) were achieved by the gear- based and the CLP emission models. These results indicate that the GAMLSS approach which uses spline functions and flexible error structure performs better than the other models investigated here. This model is validated by 10- fold cross-validation approach which shows that the prediction power of the GAMLSS emission model exceeds that of the parametric models. The models are evaluated by the BIC values, total emission recovery and analysis of the residuals. Based on these criteria, the GAMLSS emission model is the most effective, especially for CO and NOx emission modelling. This model is then validated by the K-fold cross-validation process. The suggestion for future research is to evaluate the performance of the developed models with track and real driving emission (RDE) tests. The calibrated model then will be implemented to a traffic microsimulation, where different transportation management and traffic policies can be simulated and evaluated by their impacts on air quality.

An Empirical Comparison of Emissions Based on Vehicular Trajectories from Microscopic and Mesoscopic Simulation Models

An Empirical Comparison of Emissions Based on Vehicular Trajectories from Microscopic and Mesoscopic Simulation Models
Author: Jingjing Zang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 69
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN: 9781303485930

Following increasing public concerns, various policies have been implemented to reduce air pollution from the operation of motor vehicles. Unfortunately, estimating the effectiveness of these policies requires analyses that are often costly and time-consuming. The state-of-the-art approach for estimating vehicular emissions on a road network is to combine a vehicular microsimulation model, such as Paramics or TransModeler, with a microscopic emissions model such as EPA's MOVES. However, this approach has not yet been widely adopted because creating and calibrating microsimulation models of large networks is very time-consuming. A potential alternative to vehicular microsimulation is to rely on a mesoscopic traffic simulation model, but differences in air pollutant emissions between these two approaches are not yet well understood. In this context, this thesis contrasts vehicular emissions of mainstream air pollutants obtained by applying MOVES to results of both microscopic and mesoscopic traffic simulations in TransModeler. Traffic was simulated for 24 hours on a large network that extends between the San Pedro Bay Ports (Los Angeles and Long Beach) and downtown Los Angeles. Results show that for freeways near free-flow conditions, the difference in emission results obtained by combining microscopic and mesoscopic traffic simulation models with MOVES is under 10 percent, so mesoscopic simulation could replace microscopic simulation under these conditions. However, the difference between those two approaches can exceed 55% for congested arterial roads; in that case, microscopic traffic simulation should be clearly preferred for the evaluation of vehicular emissions.

Emission estimation based on traffic models and measurements

Emission estimation based on traffic models and measurements
Author: Nikolaos Tsanakas
Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press
Total Pages: 131
Release: 2019-04-24
Genre:
ISBN: 9176850927

Traffic congestion increases travel times, but also results in higher energy usage and vehicular emissions. To evaluate the impact of traffic emissions on environment and human health, the accurate estimation of their rates and location is required. Traffic emission models can be used for estimating emissions, providing emission factors in grams per vehicle and kilometre. Emission factors are defined for specific traffic situations, and traffic data is necessary in order to determine these traffic situations along a traffic network. The required traffic data, which consists of average speed and flow, can be obtained either from traffic models or sensor measurements. In large urban areas, the collection of cross-sectional data from stationary sensors is a costefficient method of deriving traffic data for emission modelling. However, the traditional approaches of extrapolating this data in time and space may not accurately capture the variations of the traffic variables when congestion is high, affecting the emission estimation. Static transportation planning models, commonly used for the evaluation of infrastructure investments and policy changes, constitute an alternative efficient method of estimating the traffic data. Nevertheless, their static nature may result in an inaccurate estimation of dynamic traffic variables, such as the location of congestion, having a direct impact on emission estimation. Congestion is strongly correlated with increased emission rates, and since emissions have location specific effects, the location of congestion becomes a crucial aspect. Therefore, the derivation of traffic data for emission modelling usually relies on the simplified, traditional approaches. The aim of this thesis is to identify, quantify and finally reduce the potential errors that these traditional approaches introduce in an emission estimation analysis. According to our main findings, traditional approaches may be sufficient for analysing pollutants with global effects such as CO2, or for large-scale emission modelling applications such as emission inventories. However, for more temporally and spatially sensitive applications, such as dispersion and exposure modelling, a more detailed approach is needed. In case of cross-sectional measurements, we suggest and evaluate the use of a more detailed, but computationally more expensive, data extrapolation approach. Additionally, considering the inabilities of static models, we propose and evaluate the post-processing of their results, by applying quasi-dynamic network loading.

A Machine Learning Methodology for Developing Microscopic Vehicular Fuel Consumption and Emission Models for Local Conditions Using Real-world Measures

A Machine Learning Methodology for Developing Microscopic Vehicular Fuel Consumption and Emission Models for Local Conditions Using Real-world Measures
Author: Ehsan Moradi
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN:

"Road transport is a major contributor to world energy consumption and emissions. The validity of models developed for environmental assessment of transport projects when used out of their origins is questionable as they are only validated for the prevailing conditions at their origin. This study starts by the validation of one of the most popular transportation environmental assessment models, MOVES, for use in non-U.S. regions such as Canada through performing on-road measurements. Distinct differences between the ground-truth and MOVES predictions are revealed. MOVES underestimates fuel and CO2 rates by 17% and 35%, respectively. Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and Particulate Matters (PM) predictions set overestimation records of up to +420%. Furthermore, MOVES output is biased for vehicle groups with specific attributes. The results of MOVES validation emphasized the need for using alternative local fuel and emission models. However, many of the existing vehicular fuel and emission modeling methodologies are criticized in aspects such as ignoring real-world training data, low diversity of test fleet, impracticality in real-world applications (such as instrument-independent eco-driving or use alongside with traffic microsimulation), and low prediction power in the non-linear multi-dimensional space of fuel consumption and emission generation. Hence, a machine learning modeling methodology relying on on-road data from a fleet of 35 vehicles is proposed. The accuracy of the proposed instrument-independent models is tried to be improved by introducing estimates of influential engine variables to the feature set through a cascaded modeling procedure. As a result, the R-squared metric reached 83%, while score improvements as high as 37% are achieved depending on the vehicle class and the machine learning technique used.Despite the considerable scores achieved by utilizing fully-connected neural networks architectures, use of techniques compatible with the serially-correlated nature of vehicular operation seems more promising in achieving higher accuracy and robustness. Moreover, generalizing the models developed for particular vehicles to more aggregate levels is a need for diversifying models’ use cases. To this end, a two-stage ensemble learning methodology based on vehicle-specific Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) models is proposed.Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) cell architecture resulted in the best lag-specific modeling scores (compared to the other RNN cell types). Vehicle-specific ensemble models developed by combining predictions from lag-specific RNN models showed score improvement records of up to 28% compared to the best component model (4% on average). In addition, the category-specific ensembles developed on top of metamodels achieved score improvements of up to 32% compared to the best component metamodel (6% on average). Linear regression dominantly resulted in the best score improvements for NOx and PM rates at both forecast combination stages, while random forests and gradient boosting methods dominantly worked the best for fuel and CO2 rates"--

Traffic Flow Dynamics

Traffic Flow Dynamics
Author: Martin Treiber
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 505
Release: 2012-10-11
Genre: Science
ISBN: 3642324592

This textbook provides a comprehensive and instructive coverage of vehicular traffic flow dynamics and modeling. It makes this fascinating interdisciplinary topic, which to date was only documented in parts by specialized monographs, accessible to a broad readership. Numerous figures and problems with solutions help the reader to quickly understand and practice the presented concepts. This book is targeted at students of physics and traffic engineering and, more generally, also at students and professionals in computer science, mathematics, and interdisciplinary topics. It also offers material for project work in programming and simulation at college and university level. The main part, after presenting different categories of traffic data, is devoted to a mathematical description of the dynamics of traffic flow, covering macroscopic models which describe traffic in terms of density, as well as microscopic many-particle models in which each particle corresponds to a vehicle and its driver. Focus chapters on traffic instabilities and model calibration/validation present these topics in a novel and systematic way. Finally, the theoretical framework is shown at work in selected applications such as traffic-state and travel-time estimation, intelligent transportation systems, traffic operations management, and a detailed physics-based model for fuel consumption and emissions.

Fundamentals of Traffic Simulation

Fundamentals of Traffic Simulation
Author: Jaume Barceló
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 450
Release: 2011-01-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1441961429

The increasing power of computer technologies, the evolution of software en- neering and the advent of the intelligent transport systems has prompted traf c simulation to become one of the most used approaches for traf c analysis in s- port of the design and evaluation of traf c systems. The ability of traf c simulation to emulate the time variability of traf c phenomena makes it a unique tool for capturing the complexity of traf c systems. In recent years, traf c simulation – and namely microscopic traf c simulation – has moved from the academic to the professional world. A wide variety of traf- c simulation software is currently available on the market and it is utilized by thousands of users, consultants, researchers and public agencies. Microscopic traf c simulation based on the emulation of traf c ows from the dynamics of individual vehicles is becoming one the most attractive approaches. However, traf c simulation still lacks a uni ed treatment. Dozens of papers on theory and applications are published in scienti c journals every year. A search of simulation-related papers and workshops through the proceedings of the last annual TRB meetings would support this assertion, as would a review of the minutes from speci cally dedicated meetings such as the International Symposiums on Traf c Simulation (Yokohama, 2002; Lausanne, 2006; Brisbane, 2008) or the International Workshops on Traf c Modeling and Simulation (Tucson, 2001; Barcelona, 2003; Sedona, 2005; Graz 2008). Yet, the only comprehensive treatment of the subject to be found so far is in the user’s manuals of various software products.

Microscopic Assessment of Transportation Emissions on Limited Access Highways

Microscopic Assessment of Transportation Emissions on Limited Access Highways
Author: Hatem Ahmed Abou-Senna
Publisher:
Total Pages: 188
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

The analysis of the experiment identified the optimal settings of the key factors and resulted in the development of Micro-TEM (Microscopic Transportation Emissions Meta- Model). The main purpose of Micro-TEM is to serve as a substitute model for predicting transportation emissions on limited access highways in lieu of running simulations using a traffic model and integrating the results in an emissions model to an acceptable degree of accuracy. Furthermore, significant emission rate reductions were observed from the experiment on the modeled corridor especially for speeds between 55 and 60 mph while maintaining up to 80% and 90% of the freeway's capacity. However, vehicle activity characterization in terms of speed was shown to have a significant impact on the emission estimation approach. Four different approaches were further examined to capture the environmental impacts of vehicular operations on the modeled test bed prototype. First, (at the most basic level), emissions were estimated for the entire 10-mile section "by hand" using one average traffic volume and average speed. Then, three advanced levels of detail were studied using VISSIM/MOVES to analyze smaller links: average speeds and volumes (AVG), second-by-second link driving schedules (LDS), and second-by-second operating mode distributions (OPMODE). This research analyzed how the various approaches affect predicted emissions of CO, NOx, PM and CO2.