Methods of Solution and Simulation for Dynamic Rational Expectations Models

Methods of Solution and Simulation for Dynamic Rational Expectations Models
Author: Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher:
Total Pages: 38
Release: 1983
Genre: Rational expectations (Economic theory)
ISBN:

Many methods have been proposed for the solution and simulation of medium or large size models under the assumption of rational expectations. The purpose of this paper is to present these methods, and to show how and where each can be applied. The methods fall into two groups. Methods in the first can be used to solve for perfect foresight paths in non-linear models. Methods in the second can be used in linear models, to solve either for paths or processes followed by endogenous variables. All the methods described here have been used in empirical applications and computer algorithms are available for most.

Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models

Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models
Author: P. Fisher
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 215
Release: 2013-04-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9401580022

It is commonly believed that macroeconomic models are not useful for policy analysis because they do not take proper account of agents' expectations. Over the last decade, mainstream macroeconomic models in the UK and elsewhere have taken on board the `Rational Expectations Revolution' by explicitly incorporating expectations of the future. In principle, one can perform the same technical exercises on a forward expectations model as on a conventional model -- and more! Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models deals with the numerical methods necessary to carry out policy analysis and forecasting with these models. These methods are often passed on by word of mouth or confined to obscure journals. Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models brings them together with applications which are interesting in their own right. There is no comparable textbook in the literature. The specific subjects include: (i) solving for model consistent expectations; (ii) the choice of terminal condition and time horizon; (iii) experimental design: i.e., the effect of temporary vs permanent, anticipated vs. unanticipated shocks; deterministic vs. stochastic, dynamic vs. static simulation; (iv) the role of exchange rate; (v) optimal control and inflation-output tradeoffs. The models used are those of the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics, the London Business School and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

Reduced Forms of Rational Expectations Models

Reduced Forms of Rational Expectations Models
Author: L. Broze
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 134
Release: 2013-06-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1136457739

A comprehensive exposition of rational expectations models is provided here, working up from simple univariate models to more sophisticated multivariate and non-linear models.

Macroeconomic Modelling

Macroeconomic Modelling
Author: S.G. Hall
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 432
Release: 2014-06-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1483295478

This book arose out of research carried out by the authors in the period 1983-1987 whilst at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. A number of things combined to impart the basic thrust of the research: partly the developments in formulating and estimating rational expectations models, and partly actual developments in the UK economy itself.An application of recent developments in dynamic modelling to a complete macroeconometric model of the UK is presented. Rational expectations modelling, co-integration and disequilibrium modelling are covered. The book also develops computational procedures for obtaining efficient solutions to large-scale models, and illustrates model solutions assuming rational expectations and stochastic simulations. Finally, sections on the analysis of models using optimal control methods illustrate applications of a large-scale econometric model. This section also discusses policy applications, including the derivation of time-consistent policies in the presence of rational expectations, giving quantified illustrations.