Measuring Systemic Risk

Measuring Systemic Risk
Author: Wan-Chien Chiu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

We model systemic risk by including a common factor exposure to market-wide shocks and an exposure to tail dependence effects arising from linkages among extreme stock returns. Specifically our model allows for the firm-specific impact of infrequent and extreme events. When a jump occurs, its impact is in the same direction for all firms (either positive or negative), but its size and volatility are firm-specific. Based on the model we compute three measures of systemic risk: DD, NoD and ESR. Empirical results using data on the four sectors of the U.S. financial industry from 1996 to 2011 suggest that simultaneous extreme negative movements across large financial institutions are stronger in bear markets than in bull markets. Disregarding the impact of the tail dependence element implies a downward bias in the measurement of systemic risk especially during weak economic times. Two measures based on the Broker-Dealers sector (DD, NoD) and one measure (ESR) based on the Insurance sector lead the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI).

Quantifying Systemic Risk

Quantifying Systemic Risk
Author: Joseph G. Haubrich
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 286
Release: 2013-01-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226319288

In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the federal government has pursued significant regulatory reforms, including proposals to measure and monitor systemic risk. However, there is much debate about how this might be accomplished quantitatively and objectively—or whether this is even possible. A key issue is determining the appropriate trade-offs between risk and reward from a policy and social welfare perspective given the potential negative impact of crises. One of the first books to address the challenges of measuring statistical risk from a system-wide persepective, Quantifying Systemic Risk looks at the means of measuring systemic risk and explores alternative approaches. Among the topics discussed are the challenges of tying regulations to specific quantitative measures, the effects of learning and adaptation on the evolution of the market, and the distinction between the shocks that start a crisis and the mechanisms that enable it to grow.

Portfolio Credit Risk Modelling With Heavy-Tailed Risk Factors

Portfolio Credit Risk Modelling With Heavy-Tailed Risk Factors
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

During the last decade, the dependencies between financial assets have increased due to globalization effects and relaxed market regulation. The standard industrial methodologies like RiskMetrics and CreditMetrics model the dependence structure in the derivatives or in the credit portfolio by assuming multivariate normality of the underlying risk factors. It has been well recognized that many financial assets exhibit a number of features which contradict the normality assumption - namely asymmetry, skewness and heavy tails. Moreover, asset return data suggests also a dependence structure which is quite different from the Gaussian. Recent empirical studies indicate that especially during highly volatile and bear markets the probability for joint extreme events leading to simultaneous losses in a portfolio could be seriously underestimated under the normality assumption. Theoretically, Embrechts et al. show that the traditional dependence measure (the linear correlation coefficient) is not always suited for a proper understanding of the dependency in financial markets. When it comes to measuring the dependence between extreme losses, other measures (e.g. the tail dependence coefficient) are more appropriate. This is particularly important in the credit risk framework, where the risk factors actually enter the model only to introduce a dependence structure in the portfolio. Clearly, appropriate multivariate models suited for extreme events are needed. In this thesis, we consider a portfolio credit risk model in the spirit of CreditMetrics. With respect to the marginal losses, we retain and enhance all features of that model and we incorporate not only the default risk, but also the rating migrations, the credit spread volatility and the recovery risk. The dependence structure in the portfolio is given by a set of underlying risk factors which we model by a general multivariate elliptical distribution. On the one hand, this model retains the standard Gaussian model as a.

Multivariate Dependence of Implied Volatilities from Equity Options as Measure of Systemic Risk

Multivariate Dependence of Implied Volatilities from Equity Options as Measure of Systemic Risk
Author: Andreas (Andy) Jobst
Publisher:
Total Pages: 57
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper presents a methodology to examine the multivariate tail dependence of the implied volatility of equity options as an early warning indicator of systemic risk within the financial sector. Using non-parametric methods of estimating changes in the dependence structure in response to common shocks affecting individual risk profiles, possible linkages during periods of stress are quantifiable while recognizing that large shocks are transmitted across financial markets differently than small shocks. Before and during the initial phase of the financial crisis, we find that systemic risk increased globally as early as February 2007- months before the unraveling of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and long before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The average (multivariate) dependence among a global sample of banks and insurance companies increased by almost 30 percent while joint tail risk declined by about the same order of magnitude, indicating that co-movements of large changes in equity volatility were more likely to occur and responses to extreme shocks became more differentiated as distress escalated. The key policy consideration flowing from our analysis is that complementary measures of joint tail risk at high data frequency are essential to the robust measurement of systemic risk, which could enhance market-based early warning mechanisms as part of macroprudential surveillance.

Copula Methods in Finance

Copula Methods in Finance
Author: Umberto Cherubini
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 310
Release: 2004-10-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470863455

Copula Methods in Finance is the first book to address the mathematics of copula functions illustrated with finance applications. It explains copulas by means of applications to major topics in derivative pricing and credit risk analysis. Examples include pricing of the main exotic derivatives (barrier, basket, rainbow options) as well as risk management issues. Particular focus is given to the pricing of asset-backed securities and basket credit derivative products and the evaluation of counterparty risk in derivative transactions.

Measuring Systemic Risk-Adjusted Liquidity (SRL)

Measuring Systemic Risk-Adjusted Liquidity (SRL)
Author: Andreas Jobst
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 70
Release: 2012-08-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475505590

Little progress has been made so far in addressing—in a comprehensive way—the externalities caused by impact of the interconnectedness within institutions and markets on funding and market liquidity risk within financial systems. The Systemic Risk-adjusted Liquidity (SRL) model combines option pricing with market information and balance sheet data to generate a probabilistic measure of the frequency and severity of multiple entities experiencing a joint liquidity event. It links a firm’s maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities impacting the stability of its funding with those characteristics of other firms, subject to individual changes in risk profiles and common changes in market conditions. This approach can then be used (i) to quantify an individual institution’s time-varying contribution to system-wide liquidity shortfalls and (ii) to price liquidity risk within a macroprudential framework that, if used to motivate a capital charge or insurance premia, provides incentives for liquidity managers to internalize the systemic risk of their decisions. The model can also accommodate a stress testing approach for institution-specific and/or general funding shocks that generate estimates of systemic liquidity risk (and associated charges) under adverse scenarios.

Innovations in Quantitative Risk Management

Innovations in Quantitative Risk Management
Author: Kathrin Glau
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 434
Release: 2015-01-09
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 331909114X

Quantitative models are omnipresent –but often controversially discussed– in todays risk management practice. New regulations, innovative financial products, and advances in valuation techniques provide a continuous flow of challenging problems for financial engineers and risk managers alike. Designing a sound stochastic model requires finding a careful balance between parsimonious model assumptions, mathematical viability, and interpretability of the output. Moreover, data requirements and the end-user training are to be considered as well. The KPMG Center of Excellence in Risk Management conference Risk Management Reloaded and this proceedings volume contribute to bridging the gap between academia –providing methodological advances– and practice –having a firm understanding of the economic conditions in which a given model is used. Discussed fields of application range from asset management, credit risk, and energy to risk management issues in insurance. Methodologically, dependence modeling, multiple-curve interest rate-models, and model risk are addressed. Finally, regulatory developments and possible limits of mathematical modeling are discussed.