Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets

Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets
Author: Francis X. Diebold
Publisher:
Total Pages: 18
Release: 2008
Genre: Assets (Accounting)
ISBN:

We provide a simple and intuitive measure of interdependence of asset returns and/or volatilities. In particular, we formulate and examine precise and separate measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers. Our framework facilitates study of both non-crisis and crisis episodes, including trends and bursts in spillovers, and both turn out to be empirically important. In particular, in an analysis of nineteen global equity markets from the early 1990s to the present, we find striking evidence of divergent behavior in the dynamics of return spillovers vs. volatility spillovers: Return spillovers display a gently increasing trend but no bursts, whereas volatility spillovers display no trend but clear bursts.

Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness

Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness
Author: Francis X. Diebold
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 285
Release: 2015-02-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0199338329

Connections among different assets, asset classes, portfolios, and the stocks of individual institutions are critical in examining financial markets. Interest in financial markets implies interest in underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. In Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness, Frank Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz propose a simple framework for defining, measuring, and monitoring connectedness, which is central to finance and macroeconomics. These measures of connectedness are theoretically rigorous yet empirically relevant. The approach to connectedness proposed by the authors is intimately related to the familiar econometric notion of variance decomposition. The full set of variance decompositions from vector auto-regressions produces the core of the 'connectedness table.' The connectedness table makes clear how one can begin with the most disaggregated pair-wise directional connectedness measures and aggregate them in various ways to obtain total connectedness measures. The authors also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that these proposed connectedness measures are intimately related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. After describing their methods in the first part of the book, the authors proceed to characterize daily return and volatility connectedness across major asset (stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodity) markets as well as the financial institutions within the U.S. and across countries since late 1990s. These specific measures of volatility connectedness show that stock markets played a critical role in spreading the volatility shocks from the U.S. to other countries. Furthermore, while the return connectedness across stock markets increased gradually over time the volatility connectedness measures were subject to significant jumps during major crisis events. This book examines not only financial connectedness, but also real fundamental connectedness. In particular, the authors show that global business cycle connectedness is economically significant and time-varying, that the U.S. has disproportionately high connectedness to others, and that pairwise country connectedness is inversely related to bilateral trade surpluses.

The Behaviour of Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers in Turkey

The Behaviour of Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers in Turkey
Author: David G. McMillan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper examines mean and volatility spillovers between the Turkish stock market with international stock, exchange rate and commodity markets. Our aim is not only to examine spillover behaviour with a large emerging market but also to examine cross -- asset spillovers and how they vary across two periods of financial market crisis; the dotcom crash and the liquidity-induced financial crisis. This is to be compared with existing work that typically focuses on industrialised countries or single asset markets only. Using the spillover index methodology we uncover an interest distinction between these two periods of markets stress. Over the dotcom period spillovers are largely between the same asset class, notably two exchange rate series and two international stock markets series. However, in the period including the financial crisis, spillovers both increase and cross asset types and suggest a much greater degree of market interdependence. Understanding the change in the nature of spillovers key investors and regulators as well as academics involved in theoretical model development.

Return and Volatility Spillovers Among the East Asian Equity Markets

Return and Volatility Spillovers Among the East Asian Equity Markets
Author: Kamil Yılmaz
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

This article examines the extent of contagion and interdependence across the East Asian equity markets since early 1990s and compares the ongoing crisis with earlier episodes. Using the forecast error variance decomposition from a vector autoregression, we derive return and volatility spillover indices over the rolling sub-sample windows. We show that there is substantial difference between the behavior of the East Asian return and volatility spillover indices over time. While the return spillover index reveals increased integration among the East Asian equity markets, the volatility spillover index experiences significant bursts during major market crises, including the East Asian crisis. The fact that both return and volatility spillover indices reached their respective peaks during the current global financial crisis attests to the severity of the current episode. -- Stock returns ; Volatility ; Spillovers ; Vector autoregression ; Variance decomposition

Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy

Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy
Author: Matthias Kalkuhl
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 620
Release: 2016-04-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319282018

This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.

Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets

Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets
Author: John Beirne
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2009
Genre: Stock exchanges
ISBN:

This paper examines volatility spillovers from mature to emerging stock markets and tests for changes in the transmission mechanism-contagion-during turbulences in mature markets. Tri-variate GARCH-BEKK models of returns in global (mature), regional, and local markets are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs), with a dummy capturing parameter shifts during turbulent episodes. LR tests suggest that mature markets influence conditional variances in many emerging markets. Moreover, spillover parameters change during turbulent episodes. Conditional variances in most EMEs rise during these episodes, but there is only limited evidence of shifts in conditional correlations between mature and emerging markets.

Essays on the Economic Relevance of Volatility Spillovers

Essays on the Economic Relevance of Volatility Spillovers
Author: Katja Ida Maria Gisler
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

The first chapter focuses on the relevance of covariances in the transmission mechanism of variance spillovers across the US stock, US bond and gold markets. For that purpose, we perform a comparative spillover analysis between a model that considers covariances and a model that considers only variances. Our results emphasise the importance of covariances in the transmission mechanism. Including covariances leads to an overall increase of the spillover level and detects the beginnings of the financial crisis and of the US debt-ceiling crisis earlier than the spillover measure that considers only variances. The second chapter evaluates the role of the United States as a source of important spillover information in forecasting realised volatility for a large cross-section of international equity markets. For this purpose, we extend the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model of realised volatility of Corsi (2009) by including US equity volatility information. More precisely, we augment the standard HAR model by US realised volatility and VIX HAR components, and compare it to the original HAR model across 17 international equity markets. Our in-sample and out-of-sample findings show that the US equity market volatility information is statistically significant and sizeable economically across all equity markets that we consider. The last chapter introduces a new system-wide network-based risk factor into the empirical asset pricing literature and examines its pricing ability for carry trade returns in currency markets. I find that system-wide volatility connectedness risk carries a significant and negative risk premium. That is, I show that low interest rate currencies are positively related to system-wide volatility connectedness risk, while high interest rate currencies display a negative correlation. Low interest rate currencies thus serve as a hedge during unexpectedly high system-wide volatility connectedness episodes, typical.

Stock Market Return and Volatility Spillovers

Stock Market Return and Volatility Spillovers
Author: Najam us Sahar
Publisher:
Total Pages: 19
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

As integration is related to systemic risk and rewards in the stock markets, it is coupled with both weak and semi-strong forms of efficiency. Little evidence is found on return and volatility spillover within the Muslim country markets. This study investigates if the Muslim majority countries are interconnected with each other through returns and volatility spillovers among the stock markets for the span of about twenty years from July 1996 to February 2016. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method as applied by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) has been used to find the static and dynamic spillover indices of nine countries with religious similarity in 80% of the population and their three developed counterparts. We found overall significant spillovers; returns connectedness was 36.5% and volatility connectedness 22.4%. The study did not find any outright integration or evidence of spillover from developed markets to the Muslim majority group. However, US and Japan caused returns and volatility shocks respectively. In dynamic analysis, both returns and volatility spillover showed a gentle and stable increase in integration. Moreover, volatility spillover responded not only to the major global financial crises but also to the Arab Spring. These findings have major implications for diversified investment in the global financial market.