Measuring Currency Pressures
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Author | : Ms.Linda S. Goldberg |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 58 |
Release | : 2018-02-16 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484341805 |
This paper presents a new measure of capital flow pressures in the form of a recast Exchange Market Pressure index. The measure captures pressures that materialize in actual international capital flows as well as pressures that result in exchange rate adjustments. The formulation is theory-based, relying on balance of payments equilibrium conditions and international asset portfolio considerations. Based on the modified exchange market pressure index, the paper also proposes the Global Risk Response Index, which reflects the country-specific sensitivity of capital flow pressures to measures of global risk aversion. For a large sample of countries over time, we demonstrate time variation in the effects of global risk on exchange market pressures, the evolving importance of the global factor across types of countries, and the changing risk-on or risk-off status of currencies.
Author | : Ronald MacDonald |
Publisher | : Routledge |
Total Pages | : 334 |
Release | : 2005 |
Genre | : Foreign exchange |
ISBN | : 1134838220 |
''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""
Author | : Gustavo Adler |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 37 |
Release | : 2016-04-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 148433230X |
The accumulation of large foreign asset positions by many central banks through sustained foreign exchange (FX) intervention has raised questions about its associated fiscal costs. This paper clarifies conceptual issues regarding how to measure these costs both from an ex-post and an ex-ante (relevant for decision making) perspective, and estimates both marginal and total costs for 73 countries over the period 2002-13. We find ex-ante marginal costs for the median emerging market economy (EME) in the inter-quartile range of 2-5.5 percent per year; while ex-ante total costs (of sustaining FX positions) in the range of 0.2-0.7 percent of GDP per year for light interveners and 0.3-1.2 percent of GDP per year for heavy interveners. These estimates indicate that fiscal costs of sustained FX intervention (via expanding central bank balance sheets) are not negligible.
Author | : Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2013 |
Genre | : Banks and banking, Central |
ISBN | : 9789291319626 |
Author | : Victor E. Argy |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 374 |
Release | : 1982 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Jeffrey Sachs |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 118 |
Release | : 1997 |
Genre | : Developing countries |
ISBN | : |
Author | : International Monetary Fund |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 132 |
Release | : 2004-05-19 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498330282 |
Author | : Jongrim Ha |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 524 |
Release | : 2019-02-24 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1464813760 |
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Author | : Camila Casas |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 62 |
Release | : 2017-11-22 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484330609 |
Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.
Author | : Annamaria Kokenyne |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 53 |
Release | : 2010-08-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1455201715 |
This paper provides a summary of the key policies that encourage dedollarization. It focuses on cases in which the authorities’ intention is to gain greater control of monetary policy and draws on the experiences of countries that have successfully dedollarized. Unlike previous work on the subject, this paper examines both macroeconomic stabilization policies and microeconomic measures, such as prudential regulation of the financial system. This study is also the first attempt to make extensive use of the foreign exchange regulation data reported in the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. The main conclusion is that durable dedollarization depends on a credible disinflation plan and specific microeconomic measures.