Market Regulation, Cycles and Growth in a Monetary Union

Market Regulation, Cycles and Growth in a Monetary Union
Author: Mirko Abbritti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2019-06-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 149831838X

We build a two-country currency union DSGE model with endogenous growth to assess the role of cross-country differences in product and labor market regulations for long-term growth and for the adjustment to shocks. We show that with endogenous growth, there is no reason to expect real income convergence. Large shocks, through endogenous TFP movements, can lead to permanent changes of output and real exchange rates. Differences are exacerbated when member countries have different product and labor market regulations. Less regulated economies are likely to have higher trend growth and recover faster from negative shocks. Results are consistent with higher inflation, lower employment and disappointing TFP growth rates experienced in the less reform-friendly euro area members.

One Market, One Money

One Market, One Money
Author: Michael Emerson
Publisher:
Total Pages: 356
Release: 1992
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780198773245

The European Community is negotiating a new treaty to establish the constitutional foundations of an economic and monetary union in the course of the 1990s. This study provides the only comprehensive guide to the economic implications of economic and monetary union. The work of an economist inside the Commission of the European Community, it reflects the considerations influencing the design of the union. The study creates a unique bridge between the insights of modern economic analysis and the work of the policy makers preparing for economic and monetary union.

Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Europe

Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Europe
Author: Nauro F. Campos
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 467
Release: 2020-04-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1108479111

In contrast to the USA, Europe has struggled to return to the growth path it was on prior to the financial crisis of 2007-11. Not only has the recovery been slow, it has also been variable with Europe's core countries recovering more quickly than those on the periphery. It is widely believed that the best way to address this slow recovery is through structural reform programmes whereby changes in government policy, regulatory frameworks, investment incentives and labour markets are used to encourage more efficient markets and higher economic growth. This book is the first to provide a critical assessment of these reforms, with a new theoretical framework, new data and new empirical methodologies. It includes several case studies of countries such as Greece, Portugal and France that introduced significant reforms, revealing that such programmes have very divergent, and not always positive, effects on economic growth, employment and income inequality.

Global Business Cycles

Global Business Cycles
Author: Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 51
Release: 2008-06-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451870019

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.

Endogenous Growth, Downward Wage Rigidities and Optimal Inflation

Endogenous Growth, Downward Wage Rigidities and Optimal Inflation
Author: Mirko Abbritti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2021-08-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513583980

Standard New Keynesian (NK) models feature an optimal inflation target well below two percent, limited welfare losses from business cycle fluctuations and long-term monetary neutrality. We develop a NK framework with labour market frictions, endogenous productivity and downward wage rigidity (DWR) which challenges these results. The model features a non-vertical long-run Phillips curve between inflation and unemployment and a trade-off between price distortions and output hysteresis that change the welfare-maximizing inflation level. For a plausible set of parameters, the optimal inflation target is in excess of two percent, a target value commonly used across central banks. Deviations from the optimal target carry welfare costs multiple times higher than in traditional NK models. The main reason is that endogenous growth and DWR generate asymmetric and hysteresis effects on unemployment and output. Price level targeting or a Taylor-rule responding to the unemployment rate can handle better the asymmetric and hysteresis effects in our model and deliver significant welfare gains. Our results are robust to the inclusion of the effective lower bound on the monetary policy interest rate.

Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart?

Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart?
Author: Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2018-01-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484338499

We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.

Making the European Monetary Union

Making the European Monetary Union
Author: Harold James
Publisher: Harvard University Press
Total Pages: 324
Release: 2012-11-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0674070941

Europe’s financial crisis cannot be blamed on the Euro, Harold James contends in this probing exploration of the whys, whens, whos, and what-ifs of European monetary union. The current crisis goes deeper, to a series of problems that were debated but not resolved at the time of the Euro’s invention. Since the 1960s, Europeans had been looking for a way to address two conundrums simultaneously: the dollar’s privileged position in the international monetary system, and Germany’s persistent current account surpluses in Europe. The Euro was created under a politically independent central bank to meet the primary goal of price stability. But while the monetary side of union was clearly conceived, other prerequisites of stability were beyond the reach of technocratic central bankers. Issues such as fiscal rules and Europe-wide banking supervision and regulation were thoroughly discussed during planning in the late 1980s and 1990s, but remained in the hands of member states. That omission proved to be a cause of crisis decades later. Here is an account that helps readers understand the European monetary crisis in depth, by tracing behind-the-scenes negotiations using an array of sources unavailable until now, notably from the European Community’s Committee of Central Bank Governors and the Delors Committee of 1988–89, which set out the plan for how Europe could reach its goal of monetary union. As this foundational study makes clear, it was the constant friction between politicians and technocrats that shaped the Euro. And, Euro or no Euro, this clash will continue into the future.

Regional Integration in West Africa

Regional Integration in West Africa
Author: Eswar Prasad
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Total Pages: 203
Release: 2021-07-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0815738544

" Assessing the potential benefits and risks of a currency union Leaders of the fifteen-member Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have set a goal of achieving a monetary and currency union by late 2020. Although some progress has been made toward achieving this ambitious goal, major challenges remain if the region is to realize the necessary macroeconomic convergence and establish the required institutional framework in a relatively short period of time. The proposed union offers many potential benefits, especially for countries with historically high inflation rates and weak central banks. But, as implementation of the euro over the past two decades has shown, folding multiple currencies, representing disparate economies, into a common union comes with significant costs, along with operational challenges and transitional risks. All these potential negatives must be considered carefully by ECOWAS leaders seeking tomeet a self-imposed deadline. This book, by two leading experts on economics and Africa, makes a significant analytical contribution to the debates now under way about how ECOWAS could achieve and manage its currency union, andthe ramifications for the African continent. "

Monetary Union, Employment and Growth

Monetary Union, Employment and Growth
Author: Pier Carlo Padoan
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 240
Release: 2001-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781782544036

'Monetary Union, Employment and Growth provides a thorough and well-developed analysis of the macroeconomic and microeconomic implications of the single currency.' - Terrence Casey, Journal of European Area Studies 'This book offers an in-depth discussion of two highly topical European issues - the single currency and unemployment - making it suitable for professional economists and post-graduate students in economics, international relations and European studies.' - European Access There exists a twofold relationship between the factors affecting adoption of a single currency in Europe, employment, and growth. On one hand, the operation of the euro will be hindered if rigidities in labour and product markets persist - hence low employment and slow growth may be a cause of poor performance of the single currency. On the other hand, the functioning of the euro will affect future patterns of European employment. Pier Carlo Padoan and his distinguished group of contributing authors go beyond the common European-based debates to consider the impact of the euro as a global currency on the evolution of European labour, product, and regional markets.

Financial Integration in the European Monetary Union

Financial Integration in the European Monetary Union
Author: Sławomir Ireneusz Bukowski
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 123
Release: 2019-11-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0429575610

This book introduces readers to the world of international financial markets and their integration on a global and regional scale. The author presents the theoretical and practical issues concerning the processes of financial market integration, with a particular focus on the monetary union. The empirical research results are based on econometric modeling, thus simplifying them for a non-specialist audience, who can instead concentrate on the author’s conclusions, which comprise the results of these complicated research methods. The author outlines the role and functions of financial markets in the economy, in particular the relationship between financial intermediaries and financial markets and tackles the question of integration of new EU member countries’ financial markets within the eurozone. The integration of financial markets in an international context is inevitable, and the author argues that we must learn how to benefit from it from in terms of economic growth. This book will be a valuable resource for students of economics and finance, particularly those studying financial management and international business and finance, as well as professionals in these fields. Further, this book will be of interest to anyone looking to discover more about the problems of globalization and the integration of financial markets into the modern economy.