Managing a Liquidity Trap

Managing a Liquidity Trap
Author: Iván Werning
Publisher:
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2011
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

I study monetary and fiscal policy in liquidity trap scenarios, where the zero bound on the nominal interest rate is binding. I work with a continuous-time version of the standard New Keynesian model. Without commitment, the economy suffers from deflation and depressed output. I show that, surprisingly, both are exacerbated with greater price flexibility. I examine monetary and fiscal policies that maximize utility for the agent in the model and refer to these as optimal throughout the paper. I find that the optimal interest rate is set to zero past the liquidity trap and jump discretely up upon exit. Inflation may be positive throughout, so the absence of deflation is not evidence against a liquidity trap. Output, on the other hand, always starts below its efficient level and rises above it. I then study fiscal policy and show that, regardless of parameters that govern the value of "fiscal multipliers" during normal or liquidity trap times, at the start of a liquidity trap optimal spending is above its natural level. However, it declines over time and goes below its natural level. I propose a decomposition of spending according to "opportunistic" and "stimulus" motives. The former is defined as the level of government purchases that is optimal from a static, cost-benefit standpoint, taking into account that, due to slack resources, shadow costs may be lower during a slump; the latter measures deviations from the former. I show that stimulus spending may be zero throughout, or switch signs, depending on parameters. Finally, I consider the hybrid where monetary policy is discretionary, but fiscal policy has commitment. In this case, stimulus spending is typically positive and increasing throughout the trap.

Monetary Economics

Monetary Economics
Author: Steven Durlauf
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 395
Release: 2016-04-30
Genre: Performing Arts
ISBN: 0230280854

Specially selected from The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 2nd edition, each article within this compendium covers the fundamental themes within the discipline and is written by a leading practitioner in the field. A handy reference tool.

Time-Consistent Management of a Liquidity Trap with Government Debt

Time-Consistent Management of a Liquidity Trap with Government Debt
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2018
Genre: Electronic books
ISBN:

This paper studies optimal discretionary monetary and fiscal policy when the lower bound on nominal interest rates is occasionally binding in a model with nominal rigidities and long-term government debt. At the lower bound it is optimal for the government to temporarily reduce debt. This decline stimulates output, which is inefficiently low during liquidity traps, by lowering expected real interest rates following the lift-off of the nominal rate from the lower bound. Away from the lower bound, the long-run level of government debt increases with the risk of reaching the lower bound. The accumulation of debt pushes up inflation expectations so as to offset the opposite effect due to the lower bound risk.

Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage

Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage
Author: Mr.Anton Korinek
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2014-07-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498356397

We investigate the role of macroprudential policies in mitigating liquidity traps driven by deleveraging, using a simple Keynesian model. When constrained agents engage in deleveraging, the interest rate needs to fall to induce unconstrained agents to pick up the decline in aggregate demand. However, if the fall in the interest rate is limited by the zero lower bound, aggregate demand is insufficient and the economy enters a liquidity trap. In such an environment, agents' exante leverage and insurance decisions are associated with aggregate demand externalities. The competitive equilibrium allocation is constrained inefficient. Welfare can be improved by ex-ante macroprudential policies such as debt limits and mandatory insurance requirements. The size of the required intervention depends on the differences in marginal propensity to consume between borrowers and lenders during the deleveraging episode. In our model, contractionary monetary policy is inferior to macroprudential policy in addressing excessive leverage, and it can even have the unintended consequence of increasing leverage.

Credible Commitment to Optimal Escape from a Liquidity Trap

Credible Commitment to Optimal Escape from a Liquidity Trap
Author: Mr.Olivier Jeanne
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 45
Release: 2004-09-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145185790X

An independent central bank can manage its balance sheet and its capital so as to commit itself to a depreciation of its currency and an exchange rate peg. This way, the central bank can implement the optimal escape from a liquidity trap, which involves a commitment to higher future inflation. This commitment mechanism works even though, realistically, the central bank cannot commit itself to a particular future money supply. It supports the feasibility of Svensson's Foolproof Way to escape from a liquidity trap.

Liquidity Traps

Liquidity Traps
Author: Willem H. Buiter
Publisher:
Total Pages: 84
Release: 1999
Genre: Deflation (Finance)
ISBN:

The New-Keynesian Liquidity Trap

The New-Keynesian Liquidity Trap
Author: John H. Cochrane
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2013
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

In standard solutions, the new-Keynesian model produces a deep recession with deflation in a liquidity trap. Useless government spending, technical regress, and capital destruction have large positive multipliers. The recession prediction, and deflation and policy paradoxes are larger when prices are less sticky. I show that these puzzling predictions are artifacts of equilibrium selection. For the same interest-rate policy, different choices of multiple equilibria overturn all these results. A "local-to-frictionless" equilibrium, for the same interest rate policy, predicts mild inflation, no output reduction and negative multipliers during the liquidity trap, and its predictions approach the frictionless model smoothly.

Money: Theory and Practice

Money: Theory and Practice
Author: Jin Cao
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 412
Release: 2019-12-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030196976

This textbook provides an introduction to modern monetary economics for advanced undergraduates, highlighting the lessons learned from the recent financial crisis. The book presents both the core New Keynesian model and recent advances, taking into account financial frictions, and discusses recent research on an intuitive level based on simple static and two-period models, but also prepares readers for an extension to a truly dynamic analysis. Further, it offers a systematic perspective on monetary policy, covering a wide range of models to help readers gain a better understanding of controversial issues. Part I examines the long-run perspective, addressing classical monetary policy issues such as determination of the price level and interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. Part II introduces the core New Keynesian model, characterizing optimal monetary policy to stabilize short-term shocks. It discusses rules vs. discretion and the challenges arising from control errors, imperfect information and robustness issues. It also analyzes optimal control in the presence of an effective lower bound. Part III focuses on modelling financial frictions. It identifies the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy via banking and introduces models with incomplete markets, principal-agent problems, maturity mismatch and leverage cycles, to show why investors’ and intermediaries’ own stakes play a key role in lending with pro-cyclical features. In addition, it presents a tractable model for handling liquidity management and demonstrates that the need to sell assets in crisis amplifies the volatility of the real economy. Lastly, the book discusses the relation between monetary policy and financial stability, addressing systemic risk and the role of macro-prudential regulation.