Making Uncertainty
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| Author | : Mykel J. Kochenderfer |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 350 |
| Release | : 2015-07-24 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 0262331713 |
An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
| Author | : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 408 |
| Release | : 2019-04-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3030052524 |
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
| Author | : John Kay |
| Publisher | : W. W. Norton & Company |
| Total Pages | : 407 |
| Release | : 2020-03-17 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1324004789 |
Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.
| Author | : Charles A. Holloway |
| Publisher | : Prentice Hall |
| Total Pages | : 554 |
| Release | : 1979 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Introduction and basic concepts; Models and probability; Choices and preferences; Preference assessment procedures; Behavioral assumptions and limitations of decision analysis; Risk sharing and incentives; Choices with multiple attributes.
| Author | : Antonio J. Conejo |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 549 |
| Release | : 2010-09-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1441974210 |
Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets provides models and procedures to be used by electricity market agents to make informed decisions under uncertainty. These procedures rely on well established stochastic programming models, which make them efficient and robust. Particularly, these techniques allow electricity producers to derive offering strategies for the pool and contracting decisions in the futures market. Retailers use these techniques to derive selling prices to clients and energy procurement strategies through the pool, the futures market and bilateral contracting. Using the proposed models, consumers can derive the best energy procurement strategies using the available trading floors. The market operator can use the techniques proposed in this book to clear simultaneously energy and reserve markets promoting efficiency and equity. The techniques described in this book are of interest for professionals working on energy markets, and for graduate students in power engineering, applied mathematics, applied economics, and operations research.
| Author | : Mervyn King |
| Publisher | : Bridge Street Press |
| Total Pages | : 560 |
| Release | : 2021-09-02 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780349143996 |
| Author | : Anna Versfeld |
| Publisher | : Rutgers University Press |
| Total Pages | : 119 |
| Release | : 2023-02-10 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 1978822499 |
In Cape Town, South Africa, many people with tuberculosis also use substances. This sets up a seemingly impossible problem: People who use substances are at increased risk of tuberculosis disease; and substance use seems to result in erratic behavior that makes successful treatment of people affected by tuberculosis extremely difficult. People affected don’t get healthy, healthcare providers are frustrated, and families seek to balance love and care for those who are ill with self-protection. How are we to understand this? Where does the responsibility for poor health and healing lie? What are the possibilities for an effective healthcare response? Through a close look at lives and care, Making Uncertainty: Tuberculosis, Substance Use, and Pathways to Health shows how patterns of substance use, tuberculosis disease, and their interaction are shaped by history, social context, and political economy. This, in turn, generates new perspectives on what makes poor health, and what good care might look like.
| Author | : George G. Szpiro |
| Publisher | : Columbia University Press |
| Total Pages | : 413 |
| Release | : 2020-01-07 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0231550979 |
At its core, economics is about making decisions. In the history of economic thought, great intellectual prowess has been exerted toward devising exquisite theories of optimal decision making in situations of constraint, risk, and scarcity. Yet not all of our choices are purely logical, and so there is a longstanding tension between those emphasizing the rational and irrational sides of human behavior. One strand develops formal models of rational utility maximizing while the other draws on what behavioral science has shown about our tendency to act irrationally. In Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty, George G. Szpiro offers a new narrative of the three-century history of the study of decision making, tracing how crucial ideas have evolved and telling the stories of the thinkers who shaped the field. Szpiro examines economics from the early days of theories spun from anecdotal evidence to the rise of a discipline built around elegant mathematics through the past half century’s interest in describing how people actually behave. Considering the work of Locke, Bentham, Jevons, Walras, Friedman, Tversky and Kahneman, Thaler, and a range of other thinkers, he sheds light on the vast scope of discovery since Bernoulli first proposed a solution to the St. Petersburg Paradox. Presenting fundamental mathematical theories in easy-to-understand language, Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty is a revelatory history for readers seeking to grasp the grand sweep of economic thought.
| Author | : Lorne M. Buchman |
| Publisher | : Thames & Hudson |
| Total Pages | : 273 |
| Release | : 2022-04-27 |
| Genre | : Design |
| ISBN | : 0500776954 |
Make to Know: From Spaces of Uncertainty to Creative Discovery will change the way you think about creativity. The book upends popular notions of innate artistic and visionary genius and probes instead the event of discovery that happens through the act of making. In contrast to the classic tale of Michelangelo, who 'saw the angel in the stone', the artists and designers Buchman interviews for this book talk about knowing their work as they engage in the doing. Make to Know explores the revelatory nature of the creative journey itself. As Buchman weaves together the vivid stories of his multiple conversations, we learn about writers of all stripes as they confront creative spaces of uncertainty 'the blank page'; about visual artists and what they understand from the materials they encounter; about designers and architects and the iterative process of solving problems; and about actors and musicians facing the surprises of improvisational performance. Make to Know is a book that will, ultimately, open a path to your own making, and, in the end, will have significant implications for how you live. Make to Know presents a way of thinking that democratizes creativity and uncovers a process that leads to knowing both ones work and oneself. It is relevant to anyone interested in why creativity matters.
| Author | : Panagiotis E. Petrakis |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 220 |
| Release | : 2016-04-29 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1137460792 |
Uncertainty in Entrepreneurial Decision Making fills an existing gap in understanding three key concepts of business management: entrepreneurship, uncertainty, and strategy. By extending the impact of uncertainty on entrepreneurship and the role of strategy in reducing uncertainty, Petrakis and Konstantakopoulou emphasize that uncertainty can be converted into creative advantage. Given that the business environment is changing both very quickly and very often, any wrong decisions taken can lead to devastation. This exciting new volume explains the reasons why we cannot see the complete the future and our position in it. This uncertainty affects entrepreneurship and how it can be turned into a competitive advantage for businesses sustainability.
