Macrofinancial Linkages And Growth At Ris In The Dominican Republic
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Author | : Olga Bespalova |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 19 |
Release | : 2019-11-13 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513519204 |
This paper uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) methodology to examine how macrofinancial conditions affect the growth outlook and its probability distribution. Using this approach, we evaluate risks to GDP growth in the Dominican Republic using quarterly data for 1996-2018. We group macrofinancial conditions in five principal determinants, based on 32 indicators. The Dominican Republic’s growth distribution appears most vulnerable to negative shocks to domestic financial conditions, domestic leverage, domestic demand, and external demand, with additional repercussions from the external cost of borrowing in the longer run. Our findings show that domestic monetary policy plays a particularly important role in reducing growth vulnerabilities when the economy is weak.
Author | : Otaviano Canuto |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 307 |
Release | : 2013-10-29 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1464800030 |
This book deals with the challenges of macro financial linkages in the emerging markets.
Author | : Andrea Deghi |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 47 |
Release | : 2020-01-17 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513525832 |
This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead. House-prices-at-risk help predict future growth at-risk and financial crises. We also investigate and propose policy solutions for preventing the identified risks. We find that overall, a tightening of macroprudential policy is the most effective at curbing downside risks to house prices, whereas a loosening of conventional monetary policy reduces downside risks only in advanced economies and only in the short-term.
Author | : International Monetary |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 104 |
Release | : 2022-07-08 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
As in the past, the Dominican Republic’s dynamic economy continued to show remarkable resilience to shocks, rebounding strongly from the impact of the pandemic. Sound policies, a nimble vaccination campaign and a well-attuned reopening—including international travel—allowed the economy to make the most of the global rebound. The recovery has been broad based; GDP was about 5 percent above pre-pandemic levels as of end-2021. The country maintained sound market access and benefitted from Fund support through the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI).
Author | : Mr.Christopher W. Crowe |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 617 |
Release | : 2010-08-25 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1589069390 |
Macrofinancial linkages have long been at the core of the IMF's mandate to oversee the stability of the global financial system. With the advent of the economic crisis, the Fund has drawn on this research in order to contribute to critical debates on the nature of appropriate policy responses at both the national and multilateral levels. The current juncture offers a good opportunity to take stock of this body of research by IMF staff and to share it with a wider audience, particularly since few collections have been published in this area. This volume brings together some of the best writing by IMF economists on macrofinancial issues, and highlights the issues and approaches that have guided IMF thinking in an area that makes up an increasingly important component of the IMF's overall remit. The chapters in the volume fit into three broad themes: financial crises and boom-bust cycles; financial integration, financial liberalization, and economic performance; and policy issues relating to macroeconomic policy and the corporate and financial sectors-including domestic and external financial liberalization.
Author | : Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 39 |
Release | : 2019-02-21 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484397010 |
The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.
Author | : International Monetary |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 36 |
Release | : 2022-04-11 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 68 |
Release | : 2024-07-25 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
This guidance note provides operational guidance on the Fund’s engagement with small developing states (SDS). It highlights the unique economic characteristics and constraints facing SDS, notably in a more shock-prone world. Building on advice that applies to the full membership, the note explains how the characteristics of SDS shape Fund surveillance, financial support and program design, capacity development (CD), and collaboration with other institutions and donors. The note updates the previous version that was published in December 2017.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 135 |
Release | : 2016-04-11 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498363288 |
The current Global Financial Stability Report (April 2016) finds that global financial stability risks have risen since the last report in October 2015. The new report finds that the outlook has deteriorated in advanced economies because of heightened uncertainty and setbacks to growth and confidence, while declines in oil and commodity prices and slower growth have kept risks elevated in emerging markets. These developments have tightened financial conditions, reduced risk appetite, raised credit risks, and stymied balance sheet repair. A broad-based policy response is needed to secure financial stability. Advanced economies must deal with crisis legacy issues, emerging markets need to bolster their resilience to global headwinds, and the resilience of market liquidity should be enhanced. The report also examines financial spillovers from emerging market economies and finds that they have risen substantially. This implies that when assessing macro-financial conditions, policymakers may need to increasingly take into account economic developments in emerging market economies. Finally, the report assesses changes in the systemic importance of insurers, finding that across advanced economies the contribution of life insurers to systemic risk has increased in recent years. The results suggest that supervisors and regulators should take a more macroprudential approach to the sector.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. African Dept. |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 53 |
Release | : 2018-07-23 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484361490 |
This paper assesses and disseminates experiences and lessons from low-income countries (LICs) in Sub-Saharan Africa that were selected by the Africa Department in 2015-16 as pilots for enhanced analysis of macro-financial linkages in Article IV staff reports. The paper focuses on the common characteristics across the pilot countries and highlights the tools used in the analysis, the challenges encountered, and the solutions deployed in overcoming them.