Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States

Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States
Author: Ralph Chami
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 689
Release: 2021-01-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0198853092

Setting macroeconomic policy is especially difficult in fragile states. Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States addresses the many issues involved and considers ways to improve the effectiveness of macroeconomic management in the face of these constraints.

Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States

Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States
Author: Ralph Chami
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 496
Release: 2021-01-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0192594532

Setting macroeconomic policy is especially difficult in fragile states. Political legitimacy concerns are heightened, raising issues such as who the policymakers are, what incentives they face, and how the process of policymaking is likely to work under limited legitimacy and high uncertainty both about the macroeconomic environment as well as policy effectiveness. In addition, fragility expands the range of policy objectives in ways that may constrain the attainment of standard macroeconomic objectives. Specifically, in the context of fragility policymakers also need to focus on measures to mitigate fragility itself - i.e., they need to address issues such as regional and ethnic economic disparities, youth unemployment, and food price inflation. Socio-political developments around the world have thus pushed policymakers to broaden their toolkit to improve the effectiveness of macroeconomic management in the face of these constraints. The chapters in Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States address these issues, both by giving an analytical context from which policymakers can build to answer the questions they face in fragile situations as well as by providing lessons drawn from empirical analyses and case studies. The first section of the volume discusses the interactions between political economy considerations and macroeconomic policymaking. The second section covers the private sector environment in fragile states. The third section focuses on macroeconomic policy, especially fiscal policy, monetary policy, exchange rate policy, external flows, and aid effectiveness. The last section explains the role of the IMF in fragile states and concludes by presenting case studies from the Middle East and from Sub-Saharan Africa. The contributors to the volume are economists and political scientists from academia as well as policymakers from international organizations and from countries affected by fragility.

Avoid a Fall Or Fly Again: Turning Points of State Fragility

Avoid a Fall Or Fly Again: Turning Points of State Fragility
Author: Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2021-05-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513573683

High persistence of state fragility (a fragility trap) suggests the presence of substantial benefits from avoiding a fall into fragility and considerable hurdles to successful exit from fragility. This paper empirically examines the factors that affect the turning points of entering and exiting from state fragility by employing three different approaches: an event study, the synthetic control method, and a logit model. We find that avoiding economic contraction is critical to prevent a country on the brink of fragility from falling into fragility (e.g., among near fragile countries, the probability of entering fragility would rise by 40 percentage points should real GDP per capita growth decline from +2.5 percent to -2.5 percent). Also, strengthening government effectiveness together with increasing political inclusion and maintaining robust economic activity should help make exit from fragility more successful and sustainable. In the current environment (the COVID-19 crisis and its aftermath), the findings suggest the importance of providing well-directed fiscal stimulus with sufficient financing, (subject to appropriate governance safeguards and well-designed policies), and protecting critical socio-economic spending to keep vulnerable countries away from being caught in a fragility trap.

States of Fragility 2016

States of Fragility 2016
Author: Collectif
Publisher: OECD
Total Pages: 210
Release: 2018-02-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9264290265

The world is getting more violent, and violence is occurring in surprising places. Over the past 15 years, 3.34 billion people, or almost half of the world’s population, have been affected by violence. The number of violent conflicts is decreasing, but conflicts are killing more people: conflict-related deaths have tripled since 2003. Violent extremism and terrorism are also on the rise. The economic cost of violence is rising too: the global economic impact of violence is a staggering USD 13.6 trillion, equivalent to 13.3% of Global GDP. And civilians, especially children and women, are most at risk. States of Fragility 2016: Understanding Violence takes a long hard look at violence in the world – and what we should do about it. The report showcases emerging thinking about violence, presents a new risk-based approach to monitoring various dimensions of fragility, and looks at financial flows in support of fragile contexts. Understanding Violence finds that development, peace and security efforts in the developing world have not kept pace with the new reality of violence. We need to dedicate more resources and attention to violence. And to be effective, we need to put people – especially youth – at the centre of our efforts.

States of Fragility 2020

States of Fragility 2020
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Total Pages: 100
Release: 2020-09-17
Genre:
ISBN: 9264985166

States of Fragility 2020 sets a policy agenda for fragility at a critical turning point: the final countdown on Agenda 2030 is at hand, and the pandemic has reversed hard-fought gains. This report examines fragility as a story in two parts: the global state of fragility that existed before COVID-19, and the dramatic impact the pandemic is having on that landscape.

The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa

The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa
Author: Mr.Bjoern Rother
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2016-09-16
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 1475535783

In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.

On the Capacity to Absorb Public Investment: How Much is Too Much?

On the Capacity to Absorb Public Investment: How Much is Too Much?
Author: Daniel Gurara
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2020-02-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513529986

While expanding public investment can help filling infrastructure bottlenecks, scaling up too much and too fast often leads to inefficient outcomes. This paper rationalizes this outcome looking at the association between cost inflation and public investment in a large sample of road construction projects in developing countries. Consistent with the presence of absorptive capacity constraints, our results show a non-linear U-shaped relationship between public investment and project costs. Unit costs increase once public investment is close to 10% of GDP. This threshold is lower (about 7% of GDP) in countries with low investment efficiency and, in general, the effect of investment scaling up on costs is especially strong during investment booms.

Macroeconomic Paradigms and Economic Policy

Macroeconomic Paradigms and Economic Policy
Author: Nicola Acocella
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 355
Release: 2016-05-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 131667942X

The recent financial crisis has demonstrated the dangers of ignoring the factors that led to previous crises, and the effectiveness of the policies designed to deal with them. Over time, these macroeconomic policies have evolved, oscillating between state intervention and a free-market approach. Following a story that runs from the pre-Great Depression era up until the Financial Crisis of 2007–11, this book reveals an intimate connection between new macroeconomic ideas and policies and the events in the real economy that inspired them. It does this in an accessible, easy-to-follow style, first by focusing on the developments of economic theories and policies, and then by concentrating on the design of domestic and international institutions and economic governance. Written by three leading experts on the history of economic policy, the book is ideal for graduates and undergraduates studying macroeconomics, monetary policy and the history of economic thought.

Gender and Macroeconomic Policy

Gender and Macroeconomic Policy
Author: Raj Nallari
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 188
Release: 2011-01-05
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 0821374354

Mainstream economic analysis has traditionally overlooked gender. The individual the basic category of analysis was regarded as genderless. Neither gender discrimination nor segmentation and segregation within the labor market or within the household was present. Contributions from development theory, new household economics (NHE), labor economics, and feminist analysis have done much to change this. Focusing on gender equality by which we mean equality in opportunity, inputs, and outcome has yielded important insights for the growth and development of an economy. But we are still at the cusp. While there have been huge improvements in recognizing gender as an analytical category at the microeconomic level, the macroeconomic implications of gender equality remain undeveloped. Engendering macroeconomics is an important and valid research and policy area. Over the past three decades, economic development has generally affected women differently than men in the developing world. At the same time, gender relations have affected macroeconomic outcomes. This volume examines the research and policy implications of engendering macroeconomic policy.