Long Term Macroeconomic Effects Of Climate Change A Cross Country Analysis
Download Long Term Macroeconomic Effects Of Climate Change A Cross Country Analysis full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online free Long Term Macroeconomic Effects Of Climate Change A Cross Country Analysis ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
| Author | : Matthew E. Kahn |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 59 |
| Release | : 2019-10-11 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513514598 |
We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment.
| Author | : Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 2018-06-13 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484363027 |
Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace in the past 40 years. This paper finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term, through a wide array of channels: reduced agricultural output, suppressed productivity of workers exposed to heat, slower investment, and poorer health. In an unmitigated climate change scenario, and under very conservative assumptions, model simulations suggest the projected rise in temperature would imply a loss of around 9 percent of output for a representative low-income country by 2100.
| Author | : Matthew E. Kahn |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 59 |
| Release | : 2019-10-11 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513517236 |
We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment.
| Author | : A. Girma |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 97 |
| Release | : 2012 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Using historical data for annual temperature and precipitation for 166 sample countries, we assessed the impact of climate change on long-run economic growth over a period 2003 to 2012. Our study addresses a general research question that “What is the impact of climate change on long-run economic growth?” In the first part of our analysis we conducted cross-sectional regressions of income per-capita against long-run average temperature and precipitation with appropriate explanatory variables in a Solow growth model. Despite the negative relationship between average temperature/precipitation and long-run level of income, in sum, our results confirm that there is no statistical significant effect of climate variability on the long-run level of income. Using Barro-type regression framework, our result on the cross-sectional relationship between mean temperature and growth rate shows that the growth rate of national income per capita falls 0.77% per degree Celsius rise in temperature. Our result also suggests that growth rate of national income per capita falls as a result of climate volatility. The regression result for effects of climate volatility shows that any deviation of temperature from its long-run average is associated with a reduction in GDP per capita growth of about 1.421 percentage points. A deviation of precipitation from its long-run average is associated with a statistically significant reduction in GDP per capita growth of about 1.051 percentage points. Therefore, our finding yields a conclusion that besides the finding that warmer temperature reduces economic growth, the more volatile climate hugely affects the economic growth of a country. Our result also revealed that the hotter countries tend to be poorer than the warmer counterparts. The impact of one degree Celsius average temperature increase in year on the long-run economic growth of poor countries is a 1.5% decrease in economic growth. It is also found that poor countries grow faster than rich ones so that there is economic convergence across countries.
| Author | : Signe Krogstrup |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 58 |
| Release | : 2019-09-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513511955 |
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of this century. Mitigation requires a large-scale transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper provides an overview of the rapidly growing literature on the role of macroeconomic and financial policy tools in enabling this transition. The literature provides a menu of policy tools for mitigation. A key conclusion is that fiscal tools are first in line and central, but can and may need to be complemented by financial and monetary policy instruments. Some tools and policies raise unanswered questions about policy tool assignment and mandates, which we describe. The literature is scarce, however, on the most effective policy mix and the role of mitigation tools and goals in the overall policy framework.
| Author | : Mr. Vimal V Thakoor |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 43 |
| Release | : 2022-12-16 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Climate and demographic changes are two major long-term trends that are evolving simultaneously. The global population is aging, while climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of weather-related disasters and lowering productivity. This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of these three changes in a common framework. Simulation results suggest that while aging drags down the real interest rate, climate change puts upward pressure on the real interest rate and inflation. As climate change intensifies, it will be the dominant factor shaping the macroeconomic variables. This results in higher inflation and a higher debt-to-GDP ratio, requiring tighter fiscal and monetary policies. The results further suggest that economic uncertainty induced by climate change amplifies these effects of climate change.
| Author | : Stephane Hallegatte |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 227 |
| Release | : 2015-11-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464806748 |
Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.
| Author | : Rainer Walz |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 172 |
| Release | : 2008-09-27 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3790820784 |
In its latest Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) projects that without further action the global average surface t- perature would rise by a further 1. 8–4. 0°C until the end of this century. But even if the rise in temperature could be limited to the lower end of this range, irreversible and possibly catastrophic changes are likely to occur. Consequently, the protection of the earth’s atmosphere requires substantial efforts to reduce CO and other green- 2 house gas emissions – especially in countries with very high per capita emissions. To limit the imminent rise in temperature, in the Kyoto-Protocol, the European Union has committed itself to reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases by 8% up to 2008–2012 compared to 1990 levels. Within the EU burden sharing agr- ment, some countries have to achieve even higher emissions reductions. Germany was assigned a reduction target of 21%. The entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol in February 2005 marks a first step towards meting global climate targets, but more ambitious action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is needed after 2012, when the Kyoto targets expire. Under German presidency, the EU has committed itself to unilaterally reduce its greenhouse gas emissions until 2020 by 20%. In case a Post- Kyoto agreement can be reached, the EU reduction target would be 30% (CEU, 2007).
| Author | : Jonathan M. Harris |
| Publisher | : Edward Elgar Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 360 |
| Release | : 2009 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
The likely economic effects of climate change and the cost of action to avert it are important public policy issues, but according to the editors (both of the Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts U.), they also raise fundamental questions about economic analysis and move issues of environmental policy from the microeconomic to the macroeconomic level. They therefore present 13 papers addressing the connections between climate change and macroeconomics. Opening chapters address fundamental issues of the likely global economic impact of climate change, the debate over the economics of climate change as presented in a special 2006 issue of the Stern Review that was commissioned by the government of the UK, the place of the climate change debate in the context of broader issues of equitable and sustainable development, and a proposed system for allocating carbon emissions reduction requirements. The next four chapters present macroeconomic theory perspectives that address issues of energy productivity, labor productivity, sustainable development, consumption, and investment. Remaining contributions explore policy options, including the new European emissions trading scheme.
| Author | : Karl W. Steininger |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 473 |
| Release | : 2015-02-26 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3319124579 |
This volume deals with the multifaceted and interdependent impacts of climate change on society from the perspective of a broad set of disciplines. The main objective of the book is to assess public and private cost of climate change as far as quantifiable, while taking into account the high degree of uncertainty. It offers new insights for the economic assessment of a broad range of climate change impact chains at a national scale. The framework presented in the book allows consistent evaluation including mutual interdependencies and macroeconomic feedback. This book develops a toolbox that can be used across the many areas of climate impact and applies it to one particular country: Austria.
