Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP)

Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP)
Author: Andreas Jobst
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2016-08-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475524471

More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.

Unconventional Policies and Exchange Rate Dynamics

Unconventional Policies and Exchange Rate Dynamics
Author: Gustavo Adler
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 38
Release: 2017-11-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484328779

We study exchange rate dynamics under cooperative and self-oriented policies in a two-country DSGE model with unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies. The cooperative solution features a large exchange rate adjustment that cushions the impact of negative shocks and a moderate use of unconventional policy instruments. Self-oriented policies (Nash equilibrium), however, entail limited exchange rate movements and an aggressive use of unconventional policies in both countries. Our results highlight the role of international policy cooperation in allowing the exchange rate to play the traditional role of shock absorber.

The Yield Curve and Financial Risk Premia

The Yield Curve and Financial Risk Premia
Author: Felix Geiger
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 260
Release: 2011-08-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9783642215742

The determinants of yield curve dynamics have been thoroughly discussed in finance models. However, little can be said about the macroeconomic factors behind the movements of short- and long-term interest rates as well as the risk compensation demanded by financial investors. By taking on a macro-finance perspective, the book’s approach explicitly acknowledges the close feedback between monetary policy, the macroeconomy and financial conditions. Both theoretical and empirical models are applied in order to get a profound understanding of the interlinkages between economic activity, the conduct of monetary policy and the underlying macroeconomic factors of bond price movements. Moreover, the book identifies a broad risk-taking channel of monetary transmission which allows a reassessment of the role of financial constraints; it enables policy makers to develop new guidelines for monetary policy and for financial supervision of how to cope with evolving financial imbalances.

Essays on the ECB Monetary Policy's Impact on Non-Financial Firms

Essays on the ECB Monetary Policy's Impact on Non-Financial Firms
Author: Lior Cohen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 145
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

"In recent years, one of the main problems the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has been facing is slow economic growth stemming, in part, from subdued investments despite interest rates falling below the zero-lower bound (ZLB). Summers (2013) brought back the term "secular stagnation" - first coined by Hansen (1939) - to describe the United States' economic environment following the 2008-2009 Great Recession, in which a central bank is unable to reduce interest rates enough to stimulate investment and consumption. In recent years, another term, "liquidity trap", has also gained popularity to characterize an economy where short-term interest rates are at the ZLB, and in effect, rendering conventional monetary policy incapable of stimulating growth. Indeed, this topic has fostered extensive research on ways unconventional monetary policies could stimulate an economy (see, for example, Dominguez et al. (1998), Bernanke et al. (2004), and Eggertsson and Krugman (2012)). The European Central Bank (ECB) has been trying to ameliorate financial conditions and restore confidence in the EMU, especially after the 2011-2012 Euro Debt crisis. On July 26th, 2012 the then President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, stated the most important three words ever uttered by a central banker that he was going to do "whatever it takes" to save the Euro. Since then, the ECB has introduced an array of conventional and unconventional monetary policies to maintain the EMU project. Some of these policies include slashing interest rates below the ZLB, implementing the longer-term refinancing operations (LTRO), and targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO), and introducing quantitative easing (QE). However, were these policies successful in encouraging investment and easing financial conditions? In this thesis, we try to answer this question from the perspective of non-financial firms. The analysis of the ECB's unconventional policies - mainly of QE - has been widely researched, especially their effect on borrowing costs in general and government bond yields in particular (see Albu et al. (2014), De Santis (2020), Jäger and Grigoriadis (2017), and Krishnamurthy et al. (2017), among others). However, the research on corporations has been somewhat limited, although non-financial corporations (NFCs) are a vital sector, particularly for investments. In this thesis, we focus on the ECB's interest rate policy and its QE programmes, especially the public sector purchase programme (PSPP), and the corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP).The PSPP, first introduced on January 22nd, 2015, aimed to lower long-term sovereign bond yields by purchasing sovereign debt at an average pace of 47 billion euros a month from March 2015 to December 2018 . In total, the ECB purchased over 2.2 trillion euros worth of government bonds of EMU countries. This asset purchase programme accounted for 47% of ECB's balance sheet. Another vital purchase programme was the CSPP. Under this program, the ECB purchased NFC debt at a monthly pace of 5.8 billion euros from June 2016 to December 2018 for a total of 178-billion-euro worth of European corporate bonds. This programme's goal was to lower NFCs' borrowing costs and to induce corporate borrowing and investment spending.This thesis consists of three independent chapters, albeit with an overarching theme of investigating the impact of ECB's policies on NFCs. In Chapter 2, titled Has ECB's monetary policy prompted NFCs to invest, or pay dividends?, we take a broad view of the influence of the ECB's conventional and unconventional policies on NFCs' decisions on debt holdings, investments, and dividends. Toward this end, we use a unique dataset comprised of income statements and balance sheets of leading NFCs' operating in the EMU from the four largest economies, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. Chapter 2 contributes to the literature by shedding light on the ECB monetary policies' long-term effect on NFCs' leverage and capital allocation - subjects that, to the best of our knowledge, have yet to be methodically investigated over such an extended period and encompasses the ECB's unconventional policies. The main results in Chapter 2 suggest that the ECB's monetary policies have encouraged firms to raise their debt burden, especially after the global recession of 2008. The ECB's policies, particularly after 2011, also seem to have led NFCs to allocate more resources not only to capital spending but also to shareholder distribution.Chapter 3, titled Examining the effect of ECB monetary policy on non-financial corporations' credit risk premia examines the usefulness of the ECB's policies in ameliorating financial conditions and reducing the risk premia of NFCs. We collected daily credit default swaps (CDSs) prices of publicly-traded European NFCs to analyze the short-term effects of the policy announcements between June 2nd, 2014, and December 30th, 2016. We also test the long-term impact of the ECB's policies on NFCs' CDS prices using monthly data from January 2008 to February 2018. Chapter 3 contributes to the literature by being the first to methodically investigate the mechanism of the ECB's monetary policy's short-term and long-term impact on NFCs' CDS prices. By doing so, we assess the ECB's various policies' transmission mechanism to NFCs' risk premia - a critical factor in NFCs' borrowing costs. The main findings in Chapter 3 are that the ECB's asset purchase programme announcements seem to have an immediate impact on CDS daily prices; these announcements had a stronger effect, especially after the PSPP started in March 2015. From 2008 to 2012 and from 2015 to 2018, the ECB's interest rate policy had statistically and economically significant effects in reducing CDS prices. We also find that some of ECB's asset purchase programmes, such as the PSPP, had a statistically significant long-term impact on CDSs. These findings indicate that some of the ECB's policies were effective in reducing NFCs' risk premia, notably since 2015, as market conditions improved. In Chapter 4, titled Bang for the QE buck: Examining the impact of ECB's corporate bond purchases on firms' credit risk, debt and investment, we focus on the CSPP. This programme, first announced in March 2016 and started by June 2016, aimed to ameliorate corporations' financial conditions and encourage NFCs to borrow and invest. Chapter 4 analyzes the CSPP's short-term and long-term effect on corporate credit risk by utilizing daily (from March to August 2016) and monthly data (June 2016- December 2018) of corporate zero-volatility, and nominal spreads. We also employ NFCs' debt covenants data to assess the pass-through of the CSPP to firms' risk of credit. We examine the CSPP's long-term effect on liquidity risk by using scaled bid-ask spread data. The data include purchased bonds under the CSPP (targeted bonds) and European bonds that were not purchased. We then analyze the CSPP's short-term and long-term impact on capital structure and capital allocation of NFCs whose bonds the ECB purchased (targeted firms) compare to European firms whose bonds were not purchased. Chapter 4 contributes to the literature by shedding light on the CSPP's short-term and long-term effect on corporate bonds' risk premia liquidity costs. Third, to the best of our knowledge, we are also the first to investigate the CSPP's long-term impact on firms' borrowing costs and corporate decisions. In Chapter 4 we find that following the CSPP announcement, targeted corporate bonds' zero-volatility spread, and nominal spread fell by 3.5 basis points (2.6%) and 4.1 basis points (4.2%), respectively. Initially, the programme encouraged firms to borrow more and pay dividends; however, it did not improve investments. Throughout its implementation (June 2016-December 2018), the CSPP only marginally reduced targeted bonds' risk premia and did not lower corporate bonds' liquidity risk. Nonetheless, it reduced targeted firms' cost of debt, improved their debt covenants, and encouraged investments. The findings in Chapter 4 suggest the CSPP did not have a persistent impact in reducing credit risk or liquidity risk in the corporate bond market; however, it had an economically significant lasting effect in lowering corporate debt cost and stimulating investment." -- TDX.

Monetary Policy after the Great Recession

Monetary Policy after the Great Recession
Author: Arkadiusz Sieroń
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 246
Release: 2020-11-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1000221431

Walter Bagehot noticed once that “John Bull can stand many things, but he cannot stand two per cent.” Well, for several years, he has had to stand interest rates well below that, in some countries even below zero. However, despite this sacrifice, the economic recovery from the Great Recession has been disappointingly weak. This book’s aim is to answer this question. The central thesis of the book is that the standard understanding of the monetary transmission mechanism is flawed. That understanding adopts erroneous assumptions—such as, that low interest rates always stimulate economic growth by boosting the credit supply, investment, and consumption—and does not fully take into account several unintended channels of monetary policy, such as risk-taking, high level of debt, or zombification of the economy. In other words, the effectiveness of monetary policy is limited during economic downturns accompanied by the debt overhang and the balance sheet recession, and generates negative effects, which can make the policy counterproductive. The author provides a thorough analysis of the issues related to the interest rates in the conduct of monetary policy, such as the risk-taking channel of monetary policy, the portfolio-balance channel and the wealth effect, zombie firms in the economy, the misallocation of resources, as well as the neutral interest rate targeting and the difference between the neutral and natural interest rate and the negative interest rate policy. The book is written in an accessible and engaging manner and will be a valuable resource for scholars of monetary economics as well as readers interested in (unconventional) monetary policy.

A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-term Interest Rates

A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-term Interest Rates
Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher:
Total Pages: 58
Release: 1983
Genre: Interest rates
ISBN:

Recent empirical research on the term structure of interest rates has shown that the long-term interest rate is well described by adistributed lag on short-term interest rates, but does not conform to the expectations theory of the term structure. It has been suggested that the long rate "overreacts" to the short rate. This paper presents aunified taxonomy of risk premia, or deviations from the expectations theory. This enables the hypothesis of overreaction to be formally stated. It is shown that, if anything, the long rate has underreacted to the short rate. However, the independent movement of the long rate is primarily responsible for the failure of the expectations theory.

Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence from Credit Register Data

Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence from Credit Register Data
Author: Margherita Bottero
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 59
Release: 2019-02-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498300855

We study negative interest rate policy (NIRP) exploiting ECB's NIRP introduction and administrative data from Italy, severely hit by the Eurozone crisis. NIRP has expansionary effects on credit supply-- -and hence the real economy---through a portfolio rebalancing channel. NIRP affects banks with higher ex-ante net short-term interbank positions or, more broadly, more liquid balance-sheets, not with higher retail deposits. NIRP-affected banks rebalance their portfolios from liquid assets to credit—especially to riskier and smaller firms—and cut loan rates, inducing sizable real effects. By shifting the entire yield curve downwards, NIRP differs from rate cuts just above the ZLB.