Long-Run Biological Interest Rate for Pay-As-You-Go Pensions in Advanced and Developing Countries

Long-Run Biological Interest Rate for Pay-As-You-Go Pensions in Advanced and Developing Countries
Author: Mr.Masahiro Nozaki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2017-04-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475596529

How much of an internal rate of return would a sustainable pay-as-you-go pension system offer current and future generations equally? The answer is the sum of the Long-Run Biological Interest Rates (LBIR), the real-world equivalent of Samuelson’s (1958) biological interest rate, and future productivity growth. Reflecting global population ageing, the median LBIR across 172 countries is as low as 1 percent per year. The LBIRs are particularly low in advanced countries, estimated to be negative in many of them, and require ample financial reserves today or future productivity growth to maintain participation in pension schemes. On the other hand, the LBIRs in less developed regions, such as in sub-Saharan Africa, are relatively high, indicating a potential to use a pay-as-you-go scheme to expand the coverage of public pensions. Raising the retirement age by five years brings up the LBIR by 40 basis points, significantly improving the long-run budget constraint of a pension scheme.

Long-Run Biological Interest Rate for Pay-As-You-Go Pensions in Advanced and Developing Countries

Long-Run Biological Interest Rate for Pay-As-You-Go Pensions in Advanced and Developing Countries
Author: Mr.Masahiro Nozaki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2017-04-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475595824

How much of an internal rate of return would a sustainable pay-as-you-go pension system offer current and future generations equally? The answer is the sum of the Long-Run Biological Interest Rates (LBIR), the real-world equivalent of Samuelson’s (1958) biological interest rate, and future productivity growth. Reflecting global population ageing, the median LBIR across 172 countries is as low as 1 percent per year. The LBIRs are particularly low in advanced countries, estimated to be negative in many of them, and require ample financial reserves today or future productivity growth to maintain participation in pension schemes. On the other hand, the LBIRs in less developed regions, such as in sub-Saharan Africa, are relatively high, indicating a potential to use a pay-as-you-go scheme to expand the coverage of public pensions. Raising the retirement age by five years brings up the LBIR by 40 basis points, significantly improving the long-run budget constraint of a pension scheme.

Pensions in the Middle East and North Africa

Pensions in the Middle East and North Africa
Author: Edward Whitehouse
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 286
Release: 2005-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0821361856

This is the first comprehensive assessment of pension systems in the Middle East and North Africa. While other regions—Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America, in particular—have been actively introducing reforms to their pension systems, Middle East and North African countries have lagged behind. This is explained, in part, by the common belief that, because demographics remain favorable—the countries are young and the labor force is expanding rapidly—financial problems are far in the future; as a result, pension reform does not have to be a priority in the broader policy agenda.However, the authors show that aging is not the only factor behind a financial crisis; the problem is the generosity of the current schemes. Moreover, badly designed benefit formulas and eligibility conditions introduce unnecessary economic distortions and make the systems vulnerable to adverse distributional transfers. The book does not present a general model that could solve the problems of all pension systems in Middle East and North Africa countries. Instead the authors focus on outlining a framework for guiding discussions on pension reform and making objective policy choices.This assessment will be useful for policy makers and government officials involved in pension reform in the Middle East and North Africa region.

Pension Reform

Pension Reform
Author: Robert Holzmann
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 692
Release: 2006
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 082136166X

This book presents 25 state of the art papers on the conceptual foundations and issues surrounding Non-financial, or Notional, Defined Contribution (NDC), country implementation of NDC (Italy, Latvia, Poland, and Sweden) and case studies for countries where NDC is figured in the reform debate. This book is intended to be a handbook for academics and policy makers who want to become informed about what NDC is and to learn about the pros and cons of this attractive reform proposal.

IMF Engagement on Pension Issues in Surveillance and Program Work

IMF Engagement on Pension Issues in Surveillance and Program Work
Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 69
Release: 2022-06-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is increasingly involved in offering policy advice on public pension issues to member countries. Public pension spending is important from both fiscal and welfare perspectives. Pension policy and its reforms can have significant fiscal and distribution implications, can influence labor supply and labor demand decisions, and may impact consumption and savings behavior. This technical note provides guidance on assessing public pension systems’ macrocriticality, i.e., sustainability, adequacy, and efficiency; it also discusses the issues and policy trade-offs to be considered when designing responses aiming to address these dimensions of the pension system. The paper emphasizes the importance of taking a long-term, comprehensive perspective when evaluating public pension spending and providing policy advice. Where feasible, reforms should be gradual and transparent to allow individuals ample time to adjust their work and savings decisions and to facilitate consumption smoothing over their lifecycle to avoid poverty in old age. It is also important to ensure that pension systems’ design and reforms do not lead to undesirable impacts in other policy areas including general tax compliance, health insurance coverage, labor force participation among older workers, or labor market informality. The paper emphasizes the importance country-specific social and economic objectives and constraints, as well as political economy realities – factors that can determine whether a pension reform is a success or failure.

Global Trends 2040

Global Trends 2040
Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
Total Pages: 158
Release: 2021-03
Genre:
ISBN: 9781646794973

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

The Growth Report

The Growth Report
Author: Commission on Growth and Development
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 198
Release: 2008-07-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0821374923

The result of two years work by 19 experienced policymakers and two Nobel prize-winning economists, 'The Growth Report' is the most complete analysis to date of the ingredients which, if used in the right country-specific recipe, can deliver growth and help lift populations out of poverty.

IMF Research Bulletin, Summer 2017

IMF Research Bulletin, Summer 2017
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 19
Release: 2017-08-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484315448

The Summer 2017 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin highlights new research such as recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes. The Research Summaries are “Structural Reform Packages, Sequencing, and the Informal Economy (by Zsuzsa Munkacsi and Magnus Saxegaard) and “A Broken Social Contract, Not High Inequality Led to the Arab Spring” (by Shantayanan Devarajan and Elena Ianchovichina). The Q&A section features “Seven Questions on Fintech” (by Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli). The Bulletin also includes information on recommended titles from IMF Publications and the latest articles from the IMF Economic Review.

Governance and Investment of Public Pension Assets

Governance and Investment of Public Pension Assets
Author: Sudhir Rajkumar
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 364
Release: 2011
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 0821384708

And key messages -- Key principles of governance and investment management -- Governance of public pension assets -- Governance structures and accountabilities -- Qualification, selection, and operation of governing bodies -- Operational policies and procedures -- Managing fiscal pressures in defined-benefit schemes -- Policy responses to turbulent financial markets -- Investment of public pension assets -- Defining the investment policy framework for public pension funds -- Managing risk for different cohorts in defined-contribution schemes -- An asset-liability approach to strategic asset allocation for pension funds -- In-house investment versus outsourcing to external investment managers -- International investments and managing the resulting currency risk -- Alternative asset classes and new investment themes.

Development in an Ageing World

Development in an Ageing World
Author: United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs
Publisher:
Total Pages: 216
Release: 2007
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9789211091540

Greater longevity is an indicator of human progress in general. Increased life expectancy and lower fertility rates are changing the population structure worldwide in a major way: the proportion of older persons is rapidly increasing, a process known as population ageing. The process is inevitable and is already advanced in developed countries and progressing quite rapidly in developing ones. The 2007 Survey analyses the implications of population ageing for social and economic development around the world, while recognising that it offers both challenges and opportunities. Among the most pressing issues is that arising from the prospect of a smaller labour force having to support an increasingly larger older population. Paralleling increased longevity are the changes in intergenerational relationships that may affect the provision of care and income security for older persons, particularly in developing countries where family transfers play a major role. At the same time, it is also necessary for societies to fully recognise and better harness the productive and social contributions that older persons can make but are in many instances prevented from making. The Survey argues that the challenges are not insurmountable, but that societies everywhere need to put in place the policies required to confront those challenges effectively and to ensure an adequate standard of living for each of their members, while respecting and promoting the contribution and participation of all.