Local Population And Employment Projection Techniques
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Author | : Stanley K. Smith |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 417 |
Release | : 2013-12-16 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 9400775512 |
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
Author | : Stanley K. Smith |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 433 |
Release | : 2005-12-21 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 0306473720 |
The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.
Author | : Michael R. Greenberg |
Publisher | : Rutgers Univ Center for Urban |
Total Pages | : 277 |
Release | : 1978-01-01 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 9780882850498 |
Forecasting populations, beyond fifteen years requires an encyclopedic knowledge of the national, regional, and local socioeconomic, political, and physical environments, combined with a large measure of imagination. Projections of this type are increasingly required by private and public decision-makers. The authors, who are top researchers in this area, have provided a comprehensive analysis that goes beyond the standard fifteen-year forecast. Local Population and Employment Projection Techniques presents a set of programmed models that project the populations of minor civil divisions (MCDs) up to fifty years and employment of counties up to twenty-five years. Three classes of MCD population models are presented, each of which is constrained at the county scale by county projections that are, constrained by state and national projections. The simplest model extrapolates a trend in the historical growth rates of MCDs, while a second method is based on the distributional properties of projections made by regional or county agencies. A procedure is provided for allocating the projections to an alternative set of spatial units. The second part of this book provides employment projection methods. Four models are presented: one is a simple regression model, and there are three step-down models: one of which is a constant share model; a second model weights the constant share projections by population projections; and a third includes a competitive component. In addition, each portion of the book contains three major pieces: an overview of available projection models; state, county, and, in the case of population projections, minor civil division models; computer programs, user's instructions, and the input and output of a sample problem.
Author | : James Raymondo |
Publisher | : Bloomsbury Publishing USA |
Total Pages | : 222 |
Release | : 1992-06-23 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0313367035 |
Raymondo provides a step-by-step guide through the complex issues associated with the methods of producing population estimates and projections. The author's approach reflects both his formal training in the study of population and his experience as an applied demographer, where he was frequently called upon to present technical population data to a lay audience. The result is a book firmly grounded in the methods and procedures of demography, but presented in a clear, concise manner for the everyday user of population estimates and projections. This book is a key resource for anyone dealing with population data. Raymondo begins by describing the general nature and differences of population estimates and projections. The author then takes the reader through several methodological issues that provide a foundation for the basic concepts of demographic analysis related to the production of population estimates and projections. Also provided is a helpful discussion on the intricacies of U.S. Bureau of the Census geographic concepts, and a general discussion on major sources of data for the estimation and projection process.
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 650 |
Release | : 1980 |
Genre | : Labor laws and legislation |
ISBN | : |
Publishes in-depth articles on labor subjects, current labor statistics, information about current labor contracts, and book reviews.
Author | : Harvey A. Goldstein |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 72 |
Release | : 1981 |
Genre | : Economic forecasting |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Sarah Harper |
Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
Total Pages | : 158 |
Release | : 2018-05-11 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 0191038687 |
The generation into which each person is born, the demographic composition of that cohort, and its relation to those born at the same time in other places influences not only a person's life chances, but also the economic and political structures within which that life is lived; the person's access to social and natural resources (food, water, education, jobs, sexual partners); and even the length of that person's life. Demography, literally the study of people, addresses the size, distribution, composition, and density of populations, and considers the impact the drivers which mediate these will have on both individual lives and the changing structure of human populations. This Very Short Introduction considers the way in which the global population has evolved over time and space. Sarah Harper discusses the theorists, theories, and methods involved in studying population trends and movements, before looking at the emergence of new demographic sub-disciplines and addressing some of the future population challenges of the 21st century. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.
Author | : Edward J. Jepson, Jr. |
Publisher | : Routledge |
Total Pages | : 261 |
Release | : 2020-12-14 |
Genre | : Architecture |
ISBN | : 1000283119 |
Urban and regional planning programs aspire to prepare practitioners to write and implement comprehensive plans. Yet, academic planning programs often place greater emphasis on theory than practice. To help address this gap, Fundamentals of Plan Making gives planning students an understanding of research and methods of analysis that apply to comprehensive planning. Its informative text and examples will help students develop familiarity with various data sources and acquire the knowledge and ability to conduct basic planning analyses such as population projections, housing needs assessments, development impact analyses, and land-use plans. Students will also learn how to implement the various citizen participation methods used by planners and develop an appreciation of the values and roles of practicing planners. In this revised second edition, Edward Jepson and Jerry Weitz bring their extensive experience as practicing planners and teaching faculty to give planning students the practical, hands-on tools they need to create and implement real plans and policies. With an entirely new census data set, expanded discussions of sustainability and other topics, as well as new online resources—including a companion website—the book is now more accessible and more informative, and its updated chapters on transportation, housing, environment, economic development, and other core planning elements also make it a handy reference for planning practitioners.
Author | : Mountain West Research |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 332 |
Release | : 1979 |
Genre | : Coal mines and mining |
ISBN | : |
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 584 |
Release | : 1976 |
Genre | : Drug abuse |
ISBN | : |