Estimation of a Life-Cycle Model with Human Capital, Labor Supply and Retirement

Estimation of a Life-Cycle Model with Human Capital, Labor Supply and Retirement
Author: Xiaodong Fan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

We develop and estimate a life-cycle model in which individuals make decisions about consumption, human capital investment, and labor supply and use it to analyze changes in Social Security rules. The most important aspect of our paper is human capital towards the end of the life cycle which responds to changes in the rules. Retirement arises endogenously as part of the labor supply decision. The model allows for both an endogenous wage process through human capital investment (which is typically assumed exogenous in the retirement literature), an endogenous retirement decision (which is typically assumed exogenous in the human capital literature), and accounts for the Social Security system. We estimate the model using indirect inference to match the life-cycle profiles of employment and measured wages from the SIPP data. The model replicates the main features of the data--in particular the large increase in measured wages and small increase in labor supply at the beginning of the life cycle as well as the small decrease in measured wages but large decrease in labor supply at the end of the life cycle. We use the model to estimate the effects of various changes to tax and Social Security policies and show that allowing for human capital accumulation is critical.

Dynamic Models of Labor Supply and Retirement

Dynamic Models of Labor Supply and Retirement
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 208
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

This dissertation contains three separate essays on the dynamic models of labor supply and retirement. The first essay documents "sharp retirement"--retirement accompanied by a discontinuous decline in labor supply--across three data sets, which previous literature found difficult to explain. I propose and estimate a life-cycle labor supply model with habit persistence wherein sharp retirement can be explained by workers quitting "cold turkey." The working habit model is consistent with the data, where workers reduce yearly labor supply by scaling back more in hours worked per week (over 50% reduction) than in weeks worked per year (20% reduction). The fixed costs approach cannot explain these trends. Counterfactuals show that reducing Social Security benefits by 20% causes individuals work an additional 8.6 months. Individuals choosing sharp retirement respond mostly on the extensive margin by delaying retirement eight months, while individuals choosing smooth retirement respond mostly on the intensive margin by increasing yearly labor supply and delaying retirement only one month. The second essay develops and estimates a Ben-Porath human capital model in which individuals make decisions on consumption, human capital investment, labor supply, and retirement, allowing both an endogenous wage process and an endogenous retirement decision. We estimate the model using the Method of Simulated Moments to match the life-cycle profiles of wages and hours from the PSID data. Counterfactuals of delaying NRA and removing Social Security earnings test show significant increases in one individual's human capital investment at old ages, which leads to over 20% increase in the wage profile near retirement. The third essay tests for asymmetric employer learning in the labor market using a three-period model with a match component of wages. When a worker makes her quit/stay decision in a labor market with three periods, she must consider the signaling effect of her decision in subsequent periods. This breaks down some implications derived from two-period models, which are mostly used in the empirical literature. I suggest two alternative hypothesis tests for asymmetric employer learning in the model. I use the NLSY79 Work-History data and find evidence of asymmetric employer learning from these tests.

The Allocation of Time and Goods Over the Life Cycle

The Allocation of Time and Goods Over the Life Cycle
Author: Gilbert R. Ghez
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Total Pages: 180
Release: 1975
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

There is a belief now that family behavior over the life cycle can be analyzed by economic methods. This study deals with allocation of resources by families over time.

Three Essays in Life-cycle Labor Supply and Human Capital Formation

Three Essays in Life-cycle Labor Supply and Human Capital Formation
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 254
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

This dissertation consists of three independent essays on earnings dynamics, educational production function, and retirement. Each chapter explains labor supply and human capital formation from a life-cycle perspective. In the first chapter, I investigate how two different kinds of uncertainty jointly affect young workers' decisions. This paper introduces the possibility of multidimensional learning about worker ability and job match quality into a model of work decisions. This mechanism has a unique prediction, negative sorting into job mobility that fades away over time, which is verified in the NLSY79 data if the AFQT score carries over some information unused by workers and employers. I estimate the structural model, which also has flexible skill accumulation, by indirect inference. From simulation results on earnings dynamics, I find that the contribution of job shopping to average earnings growth is higher than previous estimates; also, individual heterogeneity in earnings growth is mostly explained by the process of resolving uncertainties. In the second chapter, which is joint work with Keunkwan Ryu, we estimate the effects of high school class size on college entrance exam scores, using Korean administrative data. For the identification, we exploit quasi-experimental variation in class size arising from distinct institutional settings in Korea: especially, students are separately educated by major from grade 11 with different class sizes between majors. By using multi-level differencing and instrumental variable techniques, we find the effects of high school class size reduction on the test scores are positive but small. In the third chapter, I examine the effects of life expectancy on retirement and related decisions. I construct a structural model which has a realistic description of complicated dynamic incentives facing the elderly, including Social Security. Furthermore, individual heterogeneity in survival beliefs are flexibly modeled, directly using subjective survival probabilities in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) data. The estimated model suggests that many people in the data believed their wealth was over-annuitized; they would have chosen to work and save less if their average life expectancy had increased. This result partially explains the early retirement puzzle in the last century.

Business Cycle Fluctuations and the Life Cycle

Business Cycle Fluctuations and the Life Cycle
Author: Gary Duane Hansen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2007
Genre: Employees
ISBN:

We study the effects of on-the-job skill accumulation on average hours worked by age and the volatility of hours over the life cycle in a calibrated general equilibrium model. Two forms of skill accumulation are considered: learning by doing and on-the-job training. In our economy with learning by doing, individuals supply more labor early in the life cycle and less as they approach retirement than they do in an economy without this feature. The impact of this feature on the volatility of hours over the life cycle depends on the value of the intertemporal elasticity of labor supply. When individuals accumulate skills by on-the-job training, there are only weak effects on both the steady-state labor supply and its volatility over the life cycle.

The Effect of Labor Market Shocks Across the Life Cycle

The Effect of Labor Market Shocks Across the Life Cycle
Author: Kjell G. Salvanes
Publisher:
Total Pages: 65
Release: 2022
Genre: Human capital
ISBN:

Adverse economic shocks occur frequently and may cause individuals to reevaluate key life decisions in ways that have lasting consequences for themselves and the broader economy. These life decisions are fundamentally tied to specific periods of an individual's career, and economic shocks may therefore have substantially different impacts on individuals -- and the broader economy -- depending on when they occur. We exploit mass layoffs and establishment closures to examine the impact of adverse shocks across the life cycle on labor market outcomes and major life decisions: human capital investment, mobility, family structure, and retirement. Our results reveal substantial heterogeneity on labor market effects and life decisions in response to economic shocks across the life cycle. Individuals at the beginning of their careers invest in human capital and relocate to new local labor markets, individuals in the middle of their careers reduce fertility and adjust family formation decisions, and individuals at the end of their careers permanently exit the workforce and retire. As a consequence of the differential interactions between economic shocks and life decisions, the very long-term career implications of labor shocks vary considerably depending on when the shock occurs. We also document important heterogeneity across genders and education levels, both with respect to the immediate impact as well as the sum total of all these effects in the very long-term. We conclude that effects of adverse labor shocks are both more varied and more extensive than has previously been recognized, and that focusing on average effects among workers across the life cycle misses a great deal.