Joint Tests of Contagion with Applications to Financial Crises

Joint Tests of Contagion with Applications to Financial Crises
Author: Renee Fry-McKibbin
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

Joint tests of contagion are derived which are designed to have power where contagion operates simultaneously through coskewness, cokurtosis and covolatility. Finite sample properties of the new tests are evaluated and compared with existing tests of contagion that focus on a single channel. Applying the tests to daily Eurozone equity returns from 2005 to 2014 shows that contagion operates through higher order moment channels during the GFC and the European debt crisis, which are not necessarily detected by traditional tests based on correlations.

New Approaches of Testing for Financial Market Crisis and Contagion

New Approaches of Testing for Financial Market Crisis and Contagion
Author: Yu-Ling Cody Hsiao
Publisher:
Total Pages: 448
Release: 2014
Genre: Financial crises
ISBN:

This thesis consists of four chapters that focus on the development of new statistical frameworks or tests of financial market crisis and contagion. A new test for financial market contagion based on changes in the fourth order co-moments is proposed in chapter 2 to identify the propagation mechanism of shocks across international financial markets. The proposed approach captures changes in various aspects of the asset return relationships such as cross-market mean and skewness (co-kurtosis) as well as cross-market volatilities (co-volatility). In an empirical application involving the global financial crisis of 2008-09, the results show that significant contagion effects are widespread from the US banking sector to global equity markets and banking sectors through either the co-kurtosis or the co-volatility channel. Chapter 3 analyses nine financial crises from Asia in 1997-98 to the recent European debt crisis of 2010-13 to answer the question of whether the great recession is different to other crises in terms of a range of hypotheses regarding contagion transmission. This chapter examines financial contagion with a focus on the correlation and co-skewness change tests, and the proposed co-volatility change test in chapter 2 to capture changes in the various aspects of the asset return relationships. The empirical results indicate that the great recession and European debt crisis are truly global financial crises. Linkages through financial channels are more likely to result in crisis transmission than through trade, and crises beginning emerging markets transmit unexpectedly, particularly to developed markets. Chapter 4 introduces a new class of multiple-channel tests of financial market contagion in which the transmission channels of financial market crises are identified jointly through the correlation, co-skewness and co-kurtosis of the distribution of returns. The proposed tests yield the correct size in small samples which is typical of crisis periods. Regarding the power of the tests, the multiple-channel tests display the second highest power following the single-channel tests if the data generating process for an experiment contains the transmission channel of contagion consistent with the single-channel test. In an empirical application involving the three financial crises of 2007-12, the results show that the joint tests identify various combinations of transmission channels. Chapter 5 introduces new framework for testing for crisis and contagion using a regime switching skew-normal model (RSSN model). This new approach provides a more general framework for developing five types of crisis and contagion channels simultaneously. Measuring financial contagion within the RSSN model can solve several econometric problems. These are i) market dependence is fully captured by simultaneously considering both second and third order co-moments of asset returns; ii) transmission channels are simultaneously examined; iii) crisis and contagion are distinguished and individually modelled; iv) the market that a crisis originates is endogenous; and v) the timing of a crisis is endogenous. By applying the proposed model to equity markets during the great recession using Bayesian model comparison techniques, the results generally show that crisis and contagion are pervasive across Europe and the US through the second and third moment channels during the great recession.

Transmission of Financial Crises and Contagion:

Transmission of Financial Crises and Contagion:
Author: Mardi Dungey
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 232
Release: 2011-01-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0199842604

Financial crises often transmit across geographical borders and different asset classes. Modeling these interactions is empirically challenging, and many of the proposed methods give different results when applied to the same data sets. In this book the authors set out their work on a general framework for modeling the transmission of financial crises using latent factor models. They show how their framework encompasses a number of other empirical contagion models and why the results between the models differ. The book builds a framework which begins from considering contagion in the bond markets during 1997-1998 across a number of countries, and culminates in a model which encompasses multiple assets across multiple countries through over a decade of crisis events from East Asia in 1997-1998 to the sub prime crisis during 2008. Program code to support implementation of similar models is available.

The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion

The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion
Author: Mr.Prakash Kannan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2009-10-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451873662

The 2007 subprime crisis in the U.S. triggered a succession of financial crises around the globe, reigniting interest in the contagion phenomenon. Not all crises, however, are contagious. This paper models a new channel of contagion where the degree of anticipation of crises, through its impact on investor uncertainty, determines the occurrence of contagion. Incidences of surprise crises lead investors to doubt the accuracy of their informationgathering technology, which endogenously increases the probability of crises elsewhere. Anticipated crisis, instead, have the opposite effect. Importantly, this channel is empirically shown to have an independent effect beyond other contagion channels.

Extremal Dependence Tests for Contagion

Extremal Dependence Tests for Contagion
Author: Renee Fry-McKibbin
Publisher:
Total Pages: 53
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

A new test for financial market contagion based on changes in extremal dependence defined as co-kurtosis and co-volatility is developed to identify the propagation mechanism of shocks across international financial markets. The proposed approach captures changes in various aspects of the asset return relationships such as cross-market mean and skewness (co-kurtosis) as well as cross-market volatilities (co-volatility). Monte Carlo experiments show that the tests perform well except for when crisis periods are short in duration. Small crisis sample critical values are calculated for use in this case. In an empirical application involving the global financial crisis of 2008-09, the results show that significant contagion effects are widespread from the US banking sector to global equity markets and banking sectors through either the co-kurtosis or the co-volatility channels, reinforcing that higher order moments matter during crises.

Contagion Phenomena with Applications in Finance

Contagion Phenomena with Applications in Finance
Author: Serge Darolles
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 168
Release: 2015-08-26
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0081004788

Much research into financial contagion and systematic risks has been motivated by the finding that cross-market correlations (resp. coexceedances) between asset returns increase significantly during crisis periods. Is this increase due to an exogenous shock common to all markets (interdependence) or due to certain types of transmission of shocks between markets (contagion)? Darolles and Gourieroux explain that an attempt to convey contagion and causality in a static framework can be flawed due to identification problems; they provide a more precise definition of the notion of shock to strengthen the solution within a dynamic framework. This book covers the standard practice for defining shocks in SVAR models, impulse response functions, identitification issues, static and dynamic models, leading to the challenges of measurement of systematic risk and contagion, with interpretations of hedge fund survival and market liquidity risks Features the standard practice of defining shocks to models to help you to define impulse response and dynamic consequences Shows that identification of shocks can be solved in a dynamic framework, even within a linear perspective Helps you to apply the models to portfolio management, risk monitoring, and the analysis of financial stability

Financial Contagion

Financial Contagion
Author: Rob Quail
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 570
Release: 2011-02-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118016521

"Financial Contagion: The Viral Threat to the Wealth of Nations covers a lot of territory. It is, of course, terribly important to analyze case histories to discover potential triggers, mechanisms of transmission, and viable ways to contain the damage of financial contagion. The problem is, as these articles amply demonstrate, that there’s always a new virus or a mutation of a former one lurking in some corner of the financial world. We don’t know what it is or where it is. And, even if we had some inkling, there’s almost never enough time to develop a financial flu shot." --SeekingAlpha.com The latest insights on financial contagion and how both nations and investors can effectively deal with it. The domino-style structure in which the financial system exists is a perilous one. Although historically, the financial system has been able to deal with major shocks, the fact remains that our financial system is not as secure as it should be. Recent years have brought about too many examples of contagion and systemic risk. That is why Financial Contagion is such an important read. In it, the serious concerns that revolve around our fragile economic system are investigated, researched, and explained. Throughout the book, Kolb offers valuable insights on this dilemma as he compiles the history of financial contagion, highlights the latest research on systemic failure and interrelated markets, and analyzes the risks and consequences we face moving forward. Examines the importance of careful regulation and what must be done to stabilize the global financial system Includes contributed chapters from both academics and experienced professionals, offering a variety of perspectives and a rich interplay of ideas Details how close we are to witnessing a financial contagion that could devastate the world economy We have been harshly reminded of how fragile our economic ecosystem is. With Financial Contagion, you'll hold a better understanding of what needs to be done to strengthen our system and safeguard our financial future.

International Financial Contagion

International Financial Contagion
Author: Stijn Claessens
Publisher: Boom Koninklijke Uitgevers
Total Pages: 484
Release: 2001-05-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780792372851

Within less than two years, a currency crisis that began in Thailand had spread throughout East Asia, Russia, and Brazil, affecting developed economies as well as emerging markets around the world. The scope and virulence of this international financial contagion was completely unexpected. In an attempt to better understand these events, a group of leading economists from international institutions, academic universities, and the private sector gathered at a conference sponsored by the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Asian Development Bank. This book presents a selection of the papers given at this conference. This is the most extensive collection to date of research on international financial contagion. It includes survey articles and policy discussions, as well as detailed theoretical models and empirical analyses. Topics range from how to define contagion, to the relative importance of real versus financial linkages, to what policies could reduce contagion in the future. Many of the chapters perform empirical tests attempting to explain why crises spread, either by focusing on a specific transmission channel or an individual country or region. The chapters in this book have made impressive strides toward better understanding the causes and channels of international financial contagion.