Is There A Weather Effect Evidence From A Panel Of Emerging Countries Stock Markets
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| Author | : Massimo Mariani |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 20 |
| Release | : 2018 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
A long history of psychological studies has postulated that good (bad) weather induces a positive (negative) mood. Other studies have concluded that mood can influence humankind decision-making process under risk and uncertainty. Several behavioural finance studies have raised the question of whether sunshine, temperature or other weather variables exert an impact on stock prices by affecting the behaviour of market operators, thus challenging the efficient-market hypothesis. However, very few papers on the weather effect, with contradictory results, have concentrated on the stock markets of emerging countries. We fill this gap by conducting a comprehensive analysis of the effect of four weather variables (temperature, cloud cover, humidity and wind) on the stock markets of nine emerging countries located in three climatic and economically different areas of the world. Differently from the existent literature, we extend the analysis by analyzing stock prices' behaviour along with that of stock indexes and by inspecting the opening market activity along with the whole-day activity. Based on our results, we strongly reject the weather effect hypothesis.
| Author | : Irina Prodan |
| Publisher | : GRIN Verlag |
| Total Pages | : 54 |
| Release | : 2012-11-27 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3656322090 |
Master's Thesis from the year 2012 in the subject Economics - Other, grade: 1, VU University Amsterdam , language: English, abstract: One renowned and frequently researched anomaly over the last two decades is the weather effect – the impact of weather on stock market returns. The extensive literature on the weather effect fails to converge towards a unique, systematic and robust relationship between the weather and the stock market. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to explain the contradictory results in the literature by testing whether stock prices are affected by the weather in a significantly different manner depending on the level of market development and explaining how this difference behaves over time. In order to test for this, city-by-city, pooled and binary regressions are employed using data of 10 developed and 10 emerging countries over the period 1996-2011 by using two different means of seasonal adjustment. The results show that weather has a very small impact on the worldwide stock market returns and that the significance of the weather effect is decreasing over time with a cyclical pattern in terms of its recurrence. We identify the year 2001 as the cut-off point when the significance of weather on stock markets diminishes. No support has been found for a real difference in the weather effect between emerging and developed countries. However, evidence has been found of the relative inefficiency of the emerging markets and for the declining influence of weather in time.
| Author | : Irina Prodan |
| Publisher | : Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag) |
| Total Pages | : 54 |
| Release | : 2013-06-01 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 3954895560 |
One renowned and frequently researched anomaly over the last two decades is the weather effect, more precisely, the impact of weather on stock market returns. The extensive literature on the weather effect fails to converge towards a unique, systematic and robust relationship between the weather, and the stock market. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to explain the contradictory results in the literature by testing whether stock prices are affected by the weather in a significantly different manner depending on the level of market development, and explaining how this difference behaves over time. In order to test for this, city-by-city, pooled and binary regressions are employed using data of 10 developed, and 10 emerging countries over the period 1996-2011 by using two different means of seasonal adjustment.
| Author | : Augusto de la Torre |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 232 |
| Release | : 2006-10-20 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0821365444 |
Back in the early 1990s, economists and policy makers had high expectations about the prospects for domestic capital market development in emerging economies, particularly in Latin America. Unfortunately, they are now faced with disheartening results. Stock and bond markets remain illiquid and segmented. Debt is concentrated at the short end of the maturity spectrum and denominated in foreign currency, exposing countries to maturity and currency risk. Capital markets in Latin America look particularly underdeveloped when considering the many efforts undertaken to improve the macroeconomic environment and to reform the institutions believed to foster capital market development. The disappointing performance has made conventional policy recommendations questionable, at best. 'Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization' analyzes where we stand and where we are heading on capital market development. First, it takes stock of the state and evolution of Latin American capital markets and related reforms over time and relative to other countries. Second, it analyzes the factors related to the development of capital markets, with particular interest on measuring the impact of reforms. And third, in light of this analysis, it discusses the prospects for capital market development in Latin America and emerging economies and the implications for the reform agenda.
| Author | : National Intelligence Council |
| Publisher | : Cosimo Reports |
| Total Pages | : 158 |
| Release | : 2021-03 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 9781646794973 |
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
| Author | : Debarati Guha-Sapir |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
| Total Pages | : 341 |
| Release | : 2013-05-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0199841934 |
This work combines research and empirical evidence on the economic costs of disasters with theoretical approaches. It provides new insights on how to assess and manage the costs and impacts of disaster prevention, mitigation, recovery and adaption, and much more.
| Author | : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 54 |
| Release | : 2020-02-21 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513529730 |
Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.
| Author | : M. Ayhan Kose |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 403 |
| Release | : 2021-03-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464815453 |
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
| Author | : Stephane Hallegatte |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 227 |
| Release | : 2015-11-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464806748 |
Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.
| Author | : Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 2018-06-13 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484363027 |
Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace in the past 40 years. This paper finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term, through a wide array of channels: reduced agricultural output, suppressed productivity of workers exposed to heat, slower investment, and poorer health. In an unmitigated climate change scenario, and under very conservative assumptions, model simulations suggest the projected rise in temperature would imply a loss of around 9 percent of output for a representative low-income country by 2100.
