Irreversibility in Stochastic Dynamic Models and Efficient Bayesian Inference

Irreversibility in Stochastic Dynamic Models and Efficient Bayesian Inference
Author: Yian Ma
Publisher:
Total Pages: 160
Release: 2017
Genre: Irreversible processes
ISBN:

This thesis is the summary of an excursion around the topic of reversibility. We start the journal from a classical mechanical view of the "time reversal symmetry": we look into the details to track the movements of all particles at all times and ask whether the entire system remains the same if both time and momentum flip signs. This description of reversible process is the exact reflection of classical mechanics with a quadratic kinetic energy which generates Boltzmann's equilibrium thermodynamics. Unfortunately, it heavily depends on the coordinate system the variables reside in and automatically excludes the processes with dissipation or/and fluctuation from being reversible. A related but slightly more relaxed scenario is that the dynamics conserve certain quantities. Fortunately, we are able to generalize thermodynamics to this broader range of systems. For the discussion of reversibility, however, we veer towards a direction that requires much less scrutiny, and provides far more generality. We follow Kolmogorov's footsteps and only study the statistics of the variables in question. Reversibility in that realm dictates that the probability of observing a path forward equals to that of seeing a path backward. Interestingly though, the aforementioned conservative dynamics are the source of irreversibility in stationarity. We then realize that the general Markov process can be decomposed into reversible and irreversible components, each preserving the entire process' stationary distribution. This realization lets us continue along the path to develop thermodynamic theory for general stochastic processes and confirm the universal ideal behavior in Orntein-Uhlenbeck processes. The realization also prompts us to continue our excursion further into applications. On the modeling side, we discover a way to analyze noise induced phenomena in reaction diffusion equations. Stability and bifurcation analysis is brought into the stochastic models through the bridge of "effective dynamics". We are able to quantitatively explain the onset of pattern formations introduced by chemical reaction noise. Looking over to the Bayesian inference side (for the learning of model parameters from data), we find ourselves in the position of digging into a critical problem: computation with stochasticity. As the defacto approaches for Bayesian inference, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have always been criticized for their slow convergence (mixing rates) and huge amount of computation required for large data sets (scalability). It has been discovered that introduction of irreversibility increases the mixing of Markov processes. Using the decomposition of general Markov processes, we reparametrize the space of viable Markov processes for sampling purpose, so that the search for the correct MCMC algorithm turns into a game of plug and play with two matrices (or transition probabilities) to choose from. Irreversibility is automatically incorporated as one of the components to specify. Digging even deeper into a new world of scalable Bayesian inference, we start to make use of stochastic gradient techniques for excessively large data sets. With independent and identically distributed data, our previous results with continuous Markov process can be revised and provide a complete recipe to construct new stochastic gradient MCMC algorithms. Within our recipe, we pick some of the nice attributes of the previous methods and combine them to form an algorithm that excels at learning topics in Wikipedia entries in a streaming manner. With correlated data, we find a huge void space to explore. As the first step, we visit time dependent data and harness the memory decay to generalize the stochastic gradient MCMC methods to hidden Markov models. We find our method about 1,000 times faster than the traditional sampling method for an ion channel recording containing 209,634 observations.

Bayesian Inference of Stochastic Dynamical Models

Bayesian Inference of Stochastic Dynamical Models
Author: Peter Guang Yi Lu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 175
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

A new methodology for Bayesian inference of stochastic dynamical models is developed. The methodology leverages the dynamically orthogonal (DO) evolution equations for reduced-dimension uncertainty evolution and the Gaussian mixture model DO filtering algorithm for nonlinear reduced-dimension state variable inference to perform parallelized computation of marginal likelihoods for multiple candidate models, enabling efficient Bayesian update of model distributions. The methodology also employs reduced-dimension state augmentation to accommodate models featuring uncertain parameters. The methodology is applied successfully to two high-dimensional, nonlinear simulated fluid and ocean systems. Successful joint inference of an uncertain spatial geometry, one uncertain model parameter, and [Omicron](105) uncertain state variables is achieved for the first. Successful joint inference of an uncertain stochastic dynamical equation and [Omicron](105) uncertain state variables is achieved for the second. Extensions to adaptive modeling and adaptive sampling are discussed.

Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Process Models

Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Process Models
Author: David Insua
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 315
Release: 2012-04-02
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1118304039

Bayesian analysis of complex models based on stochastic processes has in recent years become a growing area. This book provides a unified treatment of Bayesian analysis of models based on stochastic processes, covering the main classes of stochastic processing including modeling, computational, inference, forecasting, decision making and important applied models. Key features: Explores Bayesian analysis of models based on stochastic processes, providing a unified treatment. Provides a thorough introduction for research students. Computational tools to deal with complex problems are illustrated along with real life case studies Looks at inference, prediction and decision making. Researchers, graduate and advanced undergraduate students interested in stochastic processes in fields such as statistics, operations research (OR), engineering, finance, economics, computer science and Bayesian analysis will benefit from reading this book. With numerous applications included, practitioners of OR, stochastic modelling and applied statistics will also find this book useful.

On Efficient Bayesian Inference for Models with Stochastic Volatility

On Efficient Bayesian Inference for Models with Stochastic Volatility
Author: Bill Sakaria
Publisher:
Total Pages: 20
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

An efficient method for Bayesian inference in stochastic volatility models uses a linear state space representation to define a Gibbs sampler in which the volatilities are jointly updated. This method involves the choice of an offset parameter and we illustrate how its choice can have an important effect on the posterior inference. A Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is developed to robustify this approach to choice of the offset parameter. The method is illustrated on both simulated data with known parameters and the daily log returns of the Eurostoxx index.

Bayesian Analysis of Multivariate Stochastic Volatility and Dynamic Models

Bayesian Analysis of Multivariate Stochastic Volatility and Dynamic Models
Author: Antonello Loddo
Publisher:
Total Pages: 170
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN: 9781109914955

We extend the results of the first in order to apply the stochastic search algorithm to dynamic model settings. We develop a MCMC algorithm that performs a stochastic model selection for the coefficients and the covariance matrix of the latent process of a dynamic model, thus making the choice of the best model only based on probabilistic considerations.

Bayesian Inference for Stochastic Processes

Bayesian Inference for Stochastic Processes
Author: LYLE D. BROEMELING
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 432
Release: 2020-06-30
Genre: Bayesian statistical decision theory
ISBN: 9780367572433

The book aims to introduce Bayesian inference methods for stochastic processes. The Bayesian approach has advantages compared to non-Bayesian, among which is the optimal use of prior information via data from previous similar experiments. Examples from biology, economics, and astronomy reinforce the basic concepts of the subject. R a