Inverse Modelling to Forecast Enclosure Fire Dynamics

Inverse Modelling to Forecast Enclosure Fire Dynamics
Author: Wolfram Michael Jahn
Publisher:
Total Pages: 145
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

Despite advances in the understanding of fire dynamics over the past decades and despite the advances in computational capacity, our ability to predict the behaviour of fires in general and building fires in particular remains very limited. This thesis proposes and studies a method to use measurements of the real event in order to steer and accelerate fire simulations. This technology aims at providing forecasts of the fire development with a positive lead time, i.e. the forecast of future events is ready before those events take place. A simplified fire spread model is implemented, and sensor data are assimilated into the model in order to estimate the parameters that characterize the spread model and thus recover information lost by approximations. The assimilation process is posed as an inverse problem, which is solved minimizing a non linear cost function that measures the distance between sensor data and the forward model. In order to accelerate the optimization procedure, the 'tangent linear model' is implemented, i.e. the forward model is linearized around the initial guess of the governing parameters that are to be estimated, thus approximating the cost function by a quadratic function. The methodology was tested first with a simple two-zone forward model, and then with a coarse grid Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) fire model as forward model. Observations for the inverse modelling were generated using a fine grid CFD simulation in order to illustrate the methodology. A test case with observations from a real scale fire test is presented at the end of this document. In the two-zone model approach the spread rate, entrainment coefficient and gas transport time are the governing invariant parameters that are estimated. The parameters could be estimated correctly and the temperature and the height of the hot layer were reproduced satisfactorily. Moreover, the heat release rate and growth rate were estimated correctly with a positive lead time of up to 30 s. The results showed that the simple mass and heat balances and plume correlation of the zone model were enough to satisfactorily forecast the main features of the fire, and that positive lead times are possible. With the CFD forward model the growth rate, fuel mass loss rate and other parameters of a fire were estimated by assimilating measurements from the fire into the model. It was shown that with a field type forward model it is possible to estimate the growth rates of several different spread rates simultaneously. A coarse grid CFD model with very short computation times was used to assimilate measurements and it was shown that spatially resolved forecasts can be obtained in reasonable time, when combined with observations from the fire. The assimilation of observations from a real scale fire test into a coarse grid CFD model showed that the estimation of a fire growth parameter is possible in complicated scenarios in reasonable time, and that the resulting forecasts at localized level present good levels of accuracy. The proposed methodology is still subject to ongoing research. The limited capability of the forward model to represent the true fire has to be addressed with more detail, and the additional information that has to be provided in order to run the simulations has to be investigated. When using a CFD type forward model, additional to the detailed geometry, it is necessary to establish the location of the fire origin and the potential fuel load before starting the assimilation cycle. While the fire origin can be located easily (as a first approximation the location of the highest temperature reading can be used), the fuel load is potentially very variable and its exact distribution might be impractical to continually keep track of. It was however shown that for relatively small compartments the exact fuel distribution is not essential in order to produce an adequate forecast, and the fuel load could for example be established based on a statistical analysis of typical compartment layouts.

Enclosure Fire Dynamics, Second Edition

Enclosure Fire Dynamics, Second Edition
Author: Björn Karlsson
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 385
Release: 2022-06-27
Genre: Law
ISBN: 1351672282

Describes the outbreak of compartment fires, and the mechanisms for best controlling them Derives simple analytical relationships from first principles and shows how to compare the derived equations with experimental data Provides the calculational procedures and computer models needed to design a building for safety Cites the most up to date standards and references throughout Includes numerous chapter problems to test student readers' understanding of fire behavior

Enclosure Fire Dynamics

Enclosure Fire Dynamics
Author: Bjorn Karlsson
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 338
Release: 1999-09-28
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 1420050214

The increasing complexity of technological solutions to both fire safety design issues and fire safety regulations demand higher levels of training and continuing education for fire protection engineers. Historical precedents on how to deal with fire hazards in new or unusual buildings are seldom available, and new performance-based building codes

Enclosure Fire Dynamics

Enclosure Fire Dynamics
Author: Bjorn Karlsson
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 315
Release: 2000
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 9780849313004

" Enclosure Fire Dynamics " provides a complete description of enclosure fires and how the outbreak of a fire in a compartment causes changes in the environment. The authors both internationally renowned experts in fire safety and protection engineering offer a clear presentation of the dominant mechanisms controlling enclosure fires and develop simple, analytical relationships useful in designing buildings for fire safety. They demonstrate how to derive engineering equations from first principles, stating the assumptions clearly and showing how the resulting equations compare to experimental data. The details and the approach offered by this text provide readers with a confidence in - and the applicability of - a wide range of commonly used engineering equations and models. Enclosure Fire Dynamics will enhance the knowledge of professional fire protection engineers, researchers, and investigators, and help build a strong foundation for engineering students. FEATURES. Describes how the outbreak of a compartment fire causes changes in the environment and outlines the dominating mechanisms that control enclosure fires. Discusses the core curriculum in fire safety engineering. Derives simple analytical relationships from first principles and shows how to compare the derived equations with experimental data. Provides the calculational procedures and computer models needed to design a building for fire safety.

Video Surveillance

Video Surveillance
Author: Weiyao Lin
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
Total Pages: 504
Release: 2011-02-03
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 9533074361

This book presents the latest achievements and developments in the field of video surveillance. The chapters selected for this book comprise a cross-section of topics that reflect a variety of perspectives and disciplinary backgrounds. Besides the introduction of new achievements in video surveillance, this book also presents some good overviews of the state-of-the-art technologies as well as some interesting advanced topics related to video surveillance. Summing up the wide range of issues presented in the book, it can be addressed to a quite broad audience, including both academic researchers and practitioners in halls of industries interested in scheduling theory and its applications. I believe this book can provide a clear picture of the current research status in the area of video surveillance and can also encourage the development of new achievements in this field.

Inverse Modelling in Wildfire Spread Forecasting: Towards a Data-driven System

Inverse Modelling in Wildfire Spread Forecasting: Towards a Data-driven System
Author: Oriol Rios Rubiras
Publisher:
Total Pages: 284
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

Wildfires are an ecological phenomenon inherent to earth dynamics and widely spread over the globe. In addition to the environmental impact, when wildfires grow beyond controllable magnitudes, they pose a principal threat to human lives and properties. On many countries, the rural abandonment of last decades, the forest continuity growth and the Wildland Urban Interface increase are exposing entire communities and rendering them vulnerable to a major fire event. Coupled together with a global warming that seems to be enlarging and worsening wildfire-prone weather conditions, the wildfire problem is becoming a recurrent and repetitive natural hazard that is in urgent needs of research development, planning and organizational changes to minimize its impact. In this context, the thesis at hand focuses on the development, implementation and initial validation of a wildfire perimeter spread prediction model that might help emergency responders on taking sound decisions to efficiently employ resources and protect valuable assets. This forecasting model is a particular implementation of a data-driven system. That is, available data are used to improve and calibrate the spread model results with the aim of delivering a more accurate and timely forecast of the fire spread for the upcoming hours. This thesis builds up the mentioned system by increasing its complexity and tackling required improvements and adaptations on fuel characterization and wind projection on topography. Initially, a simplified proof of concept that uses front perimeter (isochrones) evolution extracted from infrared imagery of the fire is challenged with data from real-scale burning experiments conducted in Australia. Despite the positive outcome of this initial investigation, some advancements are identified to further upgrade the system. Thus, the following chapters focus on the fuel and wind sub-models together with the spread model topographic upgrade and the different mathematical algorithms and strategies necessary to conduct the data-driven process. Regarding fuels, the thesis presents an in-depth analysis of fuel characterization to be used by fire spread models. This is done by a thorough sensitivity analysis of the most commonly used fuel characterization systems. In the light of these results, a simplified model that integrates all different fuel properties is proposed to be used by the data-driven framework at hand. To properly resolve the wind interaction with the terrain and to couple it into the data-driven system, the WindNinja diagnose software is employed. However, long computational times do not allow for its integration into any data-assimilation strategy. Thus, a full interpolating framework is developed and validated to allow fast and computationally inexpensive wind field updates. This key element becomes then a cornerstone of the full data-driven approach. For the optimization process (embedded into any data-driven systems) six different mathematical algorithms were compared and evaluated. Three of them being line-search strategies and the other three being global search. It was found that the algorithm selection has an impact on the final results in terms of forecast accuracy and computing time. Finally, the overall system is verified and validated using two source of available data: (1) well characterized, homogeneous slope, medium-scale experimental fires conducted in Portugal and (2) with synthetically generated fronts reproducing a real large-scale fire. These validations were aimed at studying the overall performance, checking the system functionality and highlighting possible flaws and necessary improvements if the tool is to be deployed in a real emergency situation. Whereas the results show the potential of the approach by delivering an acceptable forecast usable for emergency responders, further validations are required to check the robustness and reliability of the tool before using it in operational situations.

Inverse Modeling and Characterization of an Experimental Testbed to Advance Fire Scene Reconstruction

Inverse Modeling and Characterization of an Experimental Testbed to Advance Fire Scene Reconstruction
Author: Andrew Joseph Kurzawski
Publisher:
Total Pages: 366
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

Fire investigators examine fire scenes and collect data to form hypotheses on the origin and cause of the fire. The fire scene contains a wealth of data in the form of damage to objects in the areas affected by the fire. A computational framework with the ability to make inferences on the origin of a fire based on the data would be beneficial to the fire investigation process. Such a framework would require models of the fires, quantifiable damage metrics, and a method for making inferences on the fire origin. This work seeks to address two of the three points by using Bayesian inversion for determining the most likely origin of a fire in a compartment and constructing an algorithm for determining the heat-release rate from a burning object that can be supplied to a computational fire model. To accomplish these tasks, an experimental burn compartment was designed and a series of tests were run with controlled heat-release rates. Data collected in each experiment included temperatures, heat fluxes, and gas velocities. Modeling of the controlled heat-release rate experiments was carried out in the Consolidated Model of Fire and Smoke Transport (CFAST) and Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). Both the Bayesian inversion framework and heat-release rate reconstruction algorithm rely on computational fire models to determine the fire location and heat-release rate respectively. Following the modeling efforts, the Bayesian inversion framework was tested on synthetic data generated by FDS using the geometry of the experimental structure. Time-integrated total energy per unit area data were used as a placeholder for damage models of objects found in a fire scene. The heat-release rate reconstruction algorithm was used to determine the heat-release rates of the experiments using transient heat flux data collected at an array of sensors.

Modeling of Atmospheric Chemistry

Modeling of Atmospheric Chemistry
Author: Guy P. Brasseur
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 631
Release: 2017-06-19
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1108210953

Mathematical modeling of atmospheric composition is a formidable scientific and computational challenge. This comprehensive presentation of the modeling methods used in atmospheric chemistry focuses on both theory and practice, from the fundamental principles behind models, through to their applications in interpreting observations. An encyclopaedic coverage of methods used in atmospheric modeling, including their advantages and disadvantages, makes this a one-stop resource with a large scope. Particular emphasis is given to the mathematical formulation of chemical, radiative, and aerosol processes; advection and turbulent transport; emission and deposition processes; as well as major chapters on model evaluation and inverse modeling. The modeling of atmospheric chemistry is an intrinsically interdisciplinary endeavour, bringing together meteorology, radiative transfer, physical chemistry and biogeochemistry, making the book of value to a broad readership. Introductory chapters and a review of the relevant mathematics make this book instantly accessible to graduate students and researchers in the atmospheric sciences.

Forward and Inverse Modeling of Fire Physics Towards Fire Scene Reconstructions

Forward and Inverse Modeling of Fire Physics Towards Fire Scene Reconstructions
Author: Kristopher James Overholt
Publisher:
Total Pages: 790
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

Fire models are routinely used to evaluate life safety aspects of building design projects and are being used more often in fire and arson investigations as well as reconstructions of firefighter line-of-duty deaths and injuries. A fire within a compartment effectively leaves behind a record of fire activity and history (i.e., fire signatures). Fire and arson investigators can utilize these fire signatures in the determination of cause and origin during fire reconstruction exercises. Researchers conducting fire experiments can utilize this record of fire activity to better understand the underlying physics. In all of these applications, the fire heat release rate (HRR), location of a fire, and smoke production are important parameters that govern the evolution of thermal conditions within a fire compartment. These input parameters can be a large source of uncertainty in fire models, especially in scenarios in which experimental data or detailed information on fire behavior are not available. To better understand fire behavior indicators related to soot, the deposition of soot onto surfaces was considered. Improvements to a soot deposition submodel were implemented in a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) fire model. To better understand fire behavior indicators related to fire size, an inverse HRR methodology was developed that calculates a transient HRR in a compartment based on measured temperatures resulting from a fire source. To address issues related to the uncertainty of input parameters, an inversion framework was developed that has applications towards fire scene reconstructions. Rather than using point estimates of input parameters, a statistical inversion framework based on the Bayesian inference approach was used to determine probability distributions of input parameters. These probability distributions contain uncertainty information about the input parameters and can be propagated through fire models to obtain uncertainty information about predicted quantities of interest. The Bayesian inference approach was applied to various fire problems and coupled with zone and CFD fire models to extend the physical capability and accuracy of the inversion framework. Example applications include the estimation of both steady-state and transient fire sizes in a compartment, material properties related to pyrolysis, and the location of a fire in a compartment.