Interpreting Long Horizon Estimates In Predictive Regressions
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| Author | : Erik Hjalmarsson |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 26 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : Investment analysis |
| ISBN | : |
This paper analyzes the asymptotic properties of long-horizon estimators under both the null hypothesis and an alternative of predictability. Asymptotically, under the null of no predictability, the long-run estimator is an increasing deterministic function of the short-run estimate and the forecasting horizon. Under the alternative of predictability, the conditional distribution of the long-run estimator, given the short-run estimate, is no longer degenerate and the expected pattern of coefficient estimates across horizons differs from that under the null. Importantly, however, under the alternative, highly endogenous regressors, such as the dividend-price ratio, tend to deviate much less than exogenous regressors, such as the short interest rate, from the pattern expected under the null, making it more difficult to distinguish between the null and the alternative.
| Author | : Yacine Ait-Sahalia |
| Publisher | : Elsevier |
| Total Pages | : 385 |
| Release | : 2009-10-21 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0444535497 |
Applied financial econometrics subjects are featured in this second volume, with papers that survey important research even as they make unique empirical contributions to the literature. These subjects are familiar: portfolio choice, trading volume, the risk-return tradeoff, option pricing, bond yields, and the management, supervision, and measurement of extreme and infrequent risks. Yet their treatments are exceptional, drawing on current data and evidence to reflect recent events and scholarship. A landmark in its coverage, this volume should propel financial econometric research for years. - Presents a broad survey of current research - Contributors are leading econometricians - Offers a clarity of method and explanation unavailable in other financial econometrics collections
| Author | : Min Wei |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 46 |
| Release | : 2009 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Graham Elliott |
| Publisher | : Elsevier |
| Total Pages | : 667 |
| Release | : 2013-08-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0444627405 |
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
| Author | : Michael Kumhof |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : Monetary policy |
| ISBN | : |
This paper asks whether an aggressive monetary policy response to inflation is feasible in countries that suffer from fiscal dominance, as long as monetary policy also responds to fiscal variables. We find that if nominal interest rates are allowed to respond to government debt, even aggressive rules that satisfy the Taylor principle can produce unique equilibria. But following such rules results in extremely volatile inflation. This leads to very frequent violations of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates that make such rules infeasible. Even within the set of feasible rules the optimal response to inflation is highly negative, and more aggressive inflation fighting is inferior from a welfare point of view. The welfare gain from responding to fiscal variables is minimal compared to the gain from eliminating fiscal dominance.
| Author | : Ansgar Belke |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 833 |
| Release | : 2011-06-14 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3540710027 |
This book integrates the fundamentals of monetary theory, monetary policy theory and financial market theory, providing an accessible introduction to the workings and interactions of globalised financial markets. Includes examples and extensive data analyses.
| Author | : Terence C. Mills |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 1406 |
| Release | : 2009-06-25 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0230244408 |
Following theseminal Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics: Volume I , this second volume brings together the finestacademicsworking in econometrics today andexploresapplied econometrics, containing contributions onsubjects includinggrowth/development econometrics and applied econometrics and computing.
| Author | : Erik Hjalmarsson |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 60 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : Econometrics |
| ISBN | : |
I test for stock return predictability in the largest and most comprehensive data set analyzed so far, using four common forecasting variables: the dividend- and earnings-price ratios, the short interest rate, and the term spread. The data contain over 20,000 monthly observations from 40 international markets, including 24 developed and 16 emerging economies. In addition, I develop new methods for predictive regressions with panel data. Inference based on the standard fixed effects estimator is shown to suffer from severe size distortions in the typical stock return regression, and an alternative robust estimator is proposed. The empirical results indicate that the short interest rate and the term spread are fairly robust predictors of stock returns in developed markets. In contrast, no strong or consistent evidence of predictability is found when considering the earnings- and dividend-price ratios as predictors.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 34 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : International finance |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 580 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : Economics |
| ISBN | : |
